SAVING THE ENVIRONMENT

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SAVING THE ENVIRONMENT
AGEC 217 August 31, 2005

• WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

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SAVING THE ENVIRONMENT

• Stephen B. Lovejoy
• Professor, Agricultural and Environmental Policy
• Purdue University

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Are You an Environmentalist?

• Over 85 of Americans say they care about the
  Environment
• Legislative Bodies respond to desires
• They give us what they think we want

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BEING AN ENVIRONMENTALIST MEANS

• Wanting more rules and regulations
• Spending more money
• Having less economic activity

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Environmentalism in the 1990s

• Have Environmental Rules and Regulations Gone Too
  Far or Not Far Enough ????????????????????????????
  ?

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Environmentalism in the 1990s

• Are Americans Spending Too Much or Not Enough on
  Protecting the Environment ??????????????????????
  ????????

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Environmentalism in the 1990s

• If we have to make a choice , should we
  sacrifice economic growth or environmental
  quality ?

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BEING AN ENVIRONMENTALIST MEANS

• Wanting more rules and regulations
• Spending more money
• Having less economic activity
• Desiring a Better Environment

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ENVIRONMENTAL TRUTH150,000,000,000/year
TRILLIONS OVER 30 YEARS
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Desire over 30 years

• Cleaner Water
• Cleaner Air
• Pollution Prevention
• Lower auto emissions
• More natural space
• Species Protection
• Clean up protect- Hazardous waste

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When Do We Ask

• Are being spent wisely?
• Are we getting our moneys worth?
• Could we get greater EQ for our 100 billion?
• Are some of our programs costly while providing
  little reduction in env. Risk?
• How can we make better choices?

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Making Choices

• Gather Information
• Set Priorities
• Decide Which problems are worst?
• Decide Where can we have impact?
• What trade-offs will we make?
• Do we want the most EQ our can buy?
• Making informed choices is what policy is all
  about.

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Focus of Presentation

• Alternative Information
• Alternative Perspectives
• Facilitating thought and reasoning about
  protection and improvement of environmental
  quality
• Questioning of Common Perceptions (Myth Busting)

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MYTH 1Most Groundwater is Polluted

• EPA says over 50 of US wells contain nitrate
  (WSJ, 1990)
• EPA study of several thousand wells
• detected nitrates in over half
• 10 of wells had detections of pesticides

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GROUNDWATERsafe or polluted?

• Nitrates
• background levels 1-3 PPM
• in community wells, only 1 above MCL
• Pesticides
• no wells above MCL/HAL
• Detection Levels
• 1 PPB 1PPT 1 part per quintillion

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ANSWERS

• Environmental community - We found
  it, therefore it is BAD and something must be DONE

• Industrial community- It was
  found, but it is so small and insignificant to be
  humorous

ARE WE ASKING THE RIGHT QUESTION??
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Large or Small Does It Matter

• More important questions relate to what are the
  health impacts of that concentration?
• Ecological Impacts?

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MYTH 2Acid rain is destroying our environment

• Damages to Northeastern forests
• Acidification of lakes
• sulfur and nitrogen oxides from power plants and
  autos
• CAA of 1990
• 40 reduction of SOX and NOX

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SOX NOX Reduction

• 20-50 billion annually
• 100-400 more for new car
• 0.1-0.2 per gallon of gas
• 16-30 more for electricity

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NAS Study of Acid Rain

• no evidence of damage to forests in NE
• Vast majority of low Ph lakes due to natural
  causes
• 3 lakes were found that may have been affected by
  acid rain

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Costs of Alternative Actions

• Clean Air Act
• 20 - 50 billion

• Academy of Sciences
• 150,000 for limestone blocks to raise Ph

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We Are Running Out of Oil
Myth 6

• 1950 reserves 30 btoe

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Myth of Oil Scarcity

• Consume over 3 btoe per year
• Reserves in 1990 250 btoe
• Reserves in 1999 1.04 trillion toe

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OIL Reserves Consumption

• Begin with 30 btoe
• Use 100 btoe
• Have 250 btoe in reserve
• Use another 20 btoe
• Have over 1000 btoe in reserve

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Oil Reserves

• Higher price leads to exploration
• Higher price leads to retrieving more
• Higher price leads to new technologies for
  exploration and development
• Higher prices lead to better technology and lower
  demand

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Global Warming

• Emission of Greenhouse Gasses contributing to the
  increase in temperature

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Impact Predictions

• Hotter summers
• Warmer winters
• Drier summers
• Drought
• Hurricanes
• Rising Ocean Levels
• Flooding

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THE LOGIC

• Burn Fossil Fuels
• Emit CO2 others
• Increase the energy bounced back to earth
• Temperature increases
• Changes rain patterns
• Ice melts, Oceans rise

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Points are rolling 30 year averages to smooth
data Gray area 95 confidence
internal Confidence interval may be much larger
Medieval Warm period 800-1400 AD
Little Ice Age 1600-1850 AD
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QUESTIONS

• Human activities 3-4 of CO2
• Greenhouse Gasses lt1 of atmosphere
• Concentration of Gasses vs Temperature
• Surface vs Atmosphere
• Spatial and temporal location of warming
• Winter
• Polar extremes
• Night

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Problems surface measurements

• Changes in local environment
• Urban heat sink
• Micro-climate

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Low Head Lighthouse in Tasmania
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Problems surface measurements

• Changes in local environment
• Urban heat sink
• Micro-climate
• Point of measurement errors
• Maintenance (cleaning and painting)
• Different collection protocols
• Manual to remote auto collection

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Problems surface measurements

• Changes in local environment
• Urban heat sink
• Micro-climate
• Point of measurement errors
• Maintenance (cleaning and painting)
• Different collection protocols
• Manual to remote auto collection
• Statistical Errors adjustments for heat sink
• Station degradation closing
• Uneven geographical spread

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Ideal Surface Monitoring Station

• Rural
• Long data series
• Well maintained site
• Consistent measurements
• 1 such station is Valentia, Ireland

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PROOF????? NO!

• Science is all about looking for exceptions
• Searching for items that DO NOT Confirm the
  hypothesis
• Scientists never PROVE anything, only disprove or
  fail to disprove.
• Better safe than sorry??

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Kyoto Protocol Still Good?

• Limit CO2 emissions to 1990 levels
• 7 reduction for US
• If followed, .07 C by 2050, .14 by 2100
• GDP decline 397 billion
• Gasoline (53), electricity (86), fuel oil
  (76), natural gas (147)
• Worth it ?????? YOU DECIDE

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RECYCLING

• WHY?

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MYTH 7Recycling newsprint saves trees

• Recycling 1 ton of newsprint saves 17 trees
• helps reduce soil erosion
• protects water quality
• carbon sink
• aesthetics

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RECYCLING fewer trees and more pollution

• Pulp trees are grown on plantations
• less demand means fewer trees
• Fewer growing trees - less carbon sink
• Recycling newsprint uses more water
• Deinking can lead to WQ problems

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MYTH 9We are running out of landfill space

• average American discards, yearly
• 13,000 paper items
• 500 aluminum cans
• 500 glass bottles
• 1200 pounds of trash

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Annual US solid waste would fill a convoy of
garbage trucks
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Convoy of Trucks 140,000 miles long
Five times around the equator
Half the distance to the moon
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Exploding the Landfill Myth

• trash in US for next 1000 years would fill an
  area 44 miles on each side and about 120 feet deep

1/10 of 1
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Question Recycling or Not

• Which things to recycle and which items to
  discard!!!!

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Caring about the Environment Means More than Just
Feeling Good

• We Have to Do Good !!!!

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Recycling How could they be used

• Water Quality - riparian buffers
• Air Quality- polluting autos
• Land Protection- buy development rights
• Greenbelts- parks, trails, etc.

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Quality Environment Requires

• Knowledge of Problems
• Analysis of Solutions
• Good Public Policy
• Efficient Use of Resources
• Time and
• Good Choices

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• Questions that need Answers
• Are being spent wisely?
• Are we getting our moneys worth?
• Could we get greater EQ for our money?
• Are we getting the greatest reduction in
  environmental risk? Human health or ecological
  risk?

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LESSONS LEARNED

• Natural ecosystems are not benign
• Perceptions can be wrong
• Trade-offs are everywhere
• Good Policy Depends Upon Good Science
• Good Science Needs Citizens Who
• Are Skeptical
• Question Everything
• Seek the Answers

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Stephen LovejoyProfessor of Agricultural and
Environmental PolicyDepartment of Agricultural
Economics

• lovejoy_at_purdue.edu