Fossil Free By 33

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Fossil Free By 33

• Prof. Geyers class

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The state of our knowledge

• How many Americans are worried about our
  dependence on foreign oil?
• Nine out of ten
• How many Americans support renewable energy?
• Nine out of ten
• How many Americans would pay more for renewable
  energy?
• Over 50
• How many Americans can name one source of
  renewable energy?
• Only 20!!!

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So Why Fossil Free?

• In case you didnt know
• Carbon dioxide is the major contributor to global
  warming
• Oil has been a large player in our foreign policy
  for the last century
• National security issues re dwindling oil
  supplies (Peak Oil)
• Fossil fuels contribute greatly to air pollution
  from cars and electricity generation especially
  coal in other states

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On Peak Oil

• Potentially HUGE crisis facing us
• Everyone agrees oil is a finite resource (well,
  almost everyone)
• The question is when will cheap oil run out?
• Some say we may already be there or will be
  there in the next few years
• Others say it wont be for another couple of
  decades
• Either way, we need to start planning today!

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More on peak oil

• A recent (Sept., 2005) report from the US Army
  Corps of Engineers stated
• World oil production is at or near its peak and
  current world demand exceeds the supply. Saudi
  Arabia has not increased production since April
  2003. World proved reserve lifetime for oil is
  about 41 years, most of this at a declining
  availability. Our current throw-away nuclear
  cycle will consume the world reserve of low-cost
  uranium in about 20 years.

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Energy Demand in the Tri-Counties
Billions of kWh
For all non-electricity generation uses
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Renewable energy potential in the Tri-Counties by
2020
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Demand reduction and energy efficiency

• The first step in any smart energy policy
• The largest single source of new energy since
  the 1970s
• This figure includes electricity, natural gas and
  transportation fuel savings
• Clearly the largest potential of any technology
• We recently convened our first stakeholders
  meeting to discuss our blueprint chapter on
  energy efficiency on Dec. 5.

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Utility renewables

• Private utilities have to produce 20 renewable
  electricity by 2010
• If half of that amount is produced outside of our
  region, it amounts to 1.6 billion kWh by 2020
• Relatively small amount of the whole because
  electricity is only about 1/5 of our energy demand

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Wind power

• Growing incredibly fast as an industry 35 this
  year in the US and about 30 annually for the
  past six years
• Also the cheapest form of renewable electricity,
  as low as 3 cents per kWH
• Intermittency problems are being worked on
• Denmark obtains about 20 of its electricity from
  wind power
• The US has 907,000 MW of offshore wind potential,
  according to NREL

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Solar power

• Most useable form of renewable power for the
  regular person b/c it can be placed on rooftops
  or in your yard
• Solar hot water
• Solar photovoltaics
• Passive solar design
• Concentrating solar power (CSP)
• Still relatively expensive for solar PV for
  homeowners, but coming down
• California PUC just approved 3.2 billion in new
  funding for solar PV, solar hot water and CSP!
• CSP has tremendous promise
• Two major CSP farms proposed for SCE and SDGE at
  300 and 500 MW, respectively

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Ocean power

• Potentially tremendous source of energy
• Intermittent like wind and solar, but hopefully
  less so
• Also will face difficulties of marine environment
• Our region has over 3.5 gigawatts of potential in
  the waves alone enough for over a million homes
• Scotland has a goal of 10 ocean power by 2010
• Just a few projects operating worldwide, but very
  promising

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Waste to energy

• Also known as conversion
• Were including biomass electricity and heating
  in this category
• Major benefit baseload power capacity
  (non-intermittent)
• At only 1.9 billion kWh potential, probably not a
  large source of electricity, but also solves
  landfill problems and may be used to create
  vehicle fuels like ethanol
• A 12 MW project has been proposed for Tajiguas,
  which already has a 3 MW plant that uses landfill
  gas

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Geothermal

• Not clear yet what resources we have in our
  region
• Potentially solid base load generation (like
  waste to energy)
• Currently the largest portion of CAs renewable
  electricity portfolio (5 of 11 renewable)
• Courthouse district heating gt passive geothermal

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The good news

• By 2020, we could exceed our goal
• 70.7/70.5 100.3 of regional energy demand
  by 2020

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The bad news

• Our numbers are still theoretical, but we will
  firm them up in our Blueprint
• We need the popular and political will to make
  them reality

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A Word on LNG

• Two liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals have
  been proposed off Ventura Countys coast
• Weve completed a study finding that existing
  renewable energy and energy efficiency mandates
  in California eliminate the need for ANY LNG
  terminals in California
• If we can satisfy demand with environmentally
  benign and cost-effective renewable resources,
  why should we opt for LNG and further dependence
  on yet another fossil fuel?

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The numbers

• The Energy Commission projects an additional
  natural gas demand of 355 million cubic feet per
  day by 2016
• This is equivalent to about 33,000 GWh of
  additional energy, when conversion efficiencies
  are factored in
• But the projections dont include all of
  Californias goals for energy efficiency and
  renewables
• When we tally the numbers, we find that we can
  produce 152 to 434 of our demand with existing
  goals and realist potential for energy
  efficiency and renewable energy

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The backup

• If for some reason we dont meet the states
  goals on energy efficiency and renewable energy,
  there are plenty of natural gas supplies coming
  on line over the next decade that will meet
  demand
• Energy agencies project a large increase in
  domestic natural gas production through 2030 (EIA
  and CEC)
• Also, numerous LNG import terminals (seventeen)
  elsewhere in North America have been approved
  already
• Sempra and Chevron are halfway finished
  constructing a large terminal in Baja California,
  which may send as much as 1.25 billion cubic feet
  per day to California, fully 20 of current
  demand

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Thank you!

• For more information, check out
• www.fossilfreeby33.org
• www.sbredg.org
• Or call Tam at the Community
• Environmental Council, at 963-0583