ADVIESRAAD

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MedAction Module 1 Land use change scenarios at
various scales
Kasper Kok, Mita Patel, Dale Rothman Alexandria,
20 March 2004
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Main products of MedAction
Scenarios 2000-2030
Decision Support Systems
Policy Support Framework
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What kind of scenarios?
The goal is to develop qualitative scenarios, or
narrative storylines. Thus, we expand our mental
model beyond conventional thinking and trend
extrapolation, and include more surprising
developments. The relevant question that
scenarios can answer is not whether an event
could happen, but what we could do if it did
happen.
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Multi-scale scenario development
3 European Scenarios (from VISIONS)
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European Scenarios Factor-Actor-Sector Framework
VISIONS MedAction Factors Equity Water
Availability Employment Migration Consumptio
n behaviour Land Degradation Environmental
degradation Economic Stability Actors NGOs
NGOs Scientists Scientists Businesses
Businesses Governmental bodies Governmental
bodies Sectors Energy Agriculture Water T
ourism Transport Forestry Infrastructure
Civic
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Three European scenarios
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Translation to Mediterranean region Knowledge is
King
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Target Area scenario development
The ideal situation is to have three workshops in
all Target Areas 1. Preparatory
workshops Introduction 2. First series of
workshops Development narrative storylines
2030 3. Second series of workshops Backcast
ing exercise and short term action
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Schedule of stakeholder workshops
Target Area Preparatory First Second
workshop workshop workshop Guadalentín 21-06-02
08-11-02 25-06-03 Agri Valley 17-06-02 21-10-
02 26-07-03 Lesvos 11-05-02 XX
XX Alentejo XX 08-14-02 XX
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First stakeholder workshops
Maratea, Italy October 21, 2002 (24)Murcia,
Spain November 8, 2002 (20)Mértola, Portugal
November 11, 2002 (16)
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Main questions 1st workshop
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The story of the present
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Writing post-its
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Discussing relationships between factors
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Final product
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The story of the future
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Creating the scenarios
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The collages
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Presenting the scenarios
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Conclusions of evaluation

• Story of the present
• No new factors of major importance
• Locally very different factors (oil in Italy!)
  and different emphasis
• PERCEPTION IS DIFFERENT ? Desertification is
  human desertification
• Story of the future
• Too general
• Too much following Mediterranean scenarios

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Second stakeholder workshops
Totana, Spain June 25, 2003 (20) Missanello,
Italy July 26, 2003 (24)
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Main questions 2nd workshop
What will be the main short-term trends in your
region starting from the current situation?
Extension of the Present
How do the present and future connect? Backcasting
exercise
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Extension of the present
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Trends in next 5 years
Sectors Agriculture ? smallholders
disappear Tourism ? increasingly
important Factors Water ? less
availability Environmental resources ? more
degradation Population and migration ? rural
outmigration
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Backcasting exercise
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Backcasting exercise

• Pick one factor from your scenario
• Decide whether you want to discuss
• This factor (future of the scenario)
• The opposite of this factor (desirable future)
• Develop a series of events and actions at short
  and medium term that should necessary happen in
  order to realise the (desired) situation of this
  factor in 2030

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Medium term
Short term
Long term
Extension of the present
Present
EU?
??
New subsidies
New canals
??
??
??
NO Golf courses
Continuation of intensive agriculture
Agriculture before anything
??
Sufficient water
??
What? When? Who? How?
Lower prices
Stop rural outmigrtion
??
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Multifunctional sustainable agriculture (BiB)
Sector Short term Medium term
Long term

• Research in local knowledge
• Adult training processes
• Innovative didactics
• Active participation

Increase the awareness on the topic of rurality
HUMAN CAPITAL

• Increase farm profits
• Multifunctional agriculture
• Incentives rural tourism
• Increase life quality inner zones

Stimulate young people to invest in agriculture
DEMOGRAPHY

• New subsidies
• Low impact techniques
• Awareness campaigns
• Promotion local products

Increase quality of local, biological products
AGRICULTURE
Multifunctional sustainable agriculture managed
by the local farmer

• Capillary street system
• Construct airport in area
• Improve water system

Increase quality and quantity of local
infrastructure
INFRASTRUCTURE

• Marketing local products
• Marketing image of the Agri
• Collective quality marks
• Quality brand Val dAgri

Strengthening of market power of the local
farmer
MARKETING

• Improve local awareness
• Spread positive experiences
• Information campaigns

Resolving institutional problems with
establishment and management
VAL DAGRI NATIONAL PARK
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Summary
Present Short Medium Long term
2003 2008 2008-2030 2030 When? 1st 2nd
2nd 1st How? All Groups Groups Groups P
ost-its Discussion Backcasting Collage Results M
ain factors Major trends Desirable futures Real
futures
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Conclusions

• Process
• Vivid discussions and active participation
• Enthusiasm and interest
• Increased communication
• Start of a long-term interaction and
  participation?

• Results
• Perception of local stakeholders on
• Present situation
• Current trends and short-term fears
• Long-term hopes and desires
• Long-term reactions to European changes

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Conclusions

• Link to policies to combat desertification
• Local stakeholders perceive desertification as
  human desertification and causes as socioeconmic
• Their interest is not the land but the
  territory
• More integrated policies are needed
• Future changes need to be considered (tourism!)