Agricultural Business 450 Natural Resource Economics

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Agricultural Business 450 Natural Resource
Economics

• Chapter 10
• Population
• The Environment
• Dr. Susan Watson

6,215,000,000
287,400,000
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Goals for Chapter 10

• The Dynamics of Population Growth
• The Theory of Demographic Transition
• Population Growth Economic Growth
• Ecological Perspectives on Population Growth

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Figure 10-1 Global Population Growth and
Projections, 17502100

• Source United Nations Department of Economic and
  Social Affairs, Population Division, 2001.

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Alarm Dangers of Exponential Growth

• After 1975, the growth rate slowed, but the much
  larger population meant that the absolute number
  of people added each year continued to increase
  until the 1990s
• A population of 5 billion that grows at 2 per
  year will reach 20 billion in 70 years and 40
  billion in a century

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Figure 10-2 Net Annual Increase in Population
per Decade, 17502100

• Source United Nations Dept. of Economic Social
  Affairs, Population Division, 2001 Repetto, 1991.

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The Population Bomb 1968 The Population
Explosion 1990

• Authors Paul Anne Ehrlich warned that runaway
  population growth could overcome the benefits of
  modern science economic growth
• Called Neo-Malthusians
• Each year we add more people than we added
  annually during the 1960s, when the growth rate
  was the highest
• Equivalent growth of a New York City every 6
  weeks and a new France every 10 months

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Global Population Growth Rates Average Gross
Annual Increase by Decade

• 60s 70s 80s 90s 00s
• Pop.
• Growth 2 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.2
• Rate
• Avg.
• Annual 67 75 83 80 74
• Increase (m)

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Population Momentum

• Projected population shown in Fig. 10-1 is a
  baseline prediction
• Could the actual figures
• go much higher?
• Figure 10-3 shows three
• scenarios for the year
• 2050 ranging from
• 7.8 to 10.9 billion

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2050 Population Projections
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Figure 10-3 Population Projections Under Three
Fertility Scenarios

• Source United Nations Department of Economic and
  Social Affairs, Population Division, 2001.

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Replacement Fertility Level

• Just over 2 children per woman
• Depends on rate of infant and child mortality
• At replacement fertility, each new generation
  will be exactly the size of the preceding one
• Fertility rates for Sub-Sahara Africa 5.8
  Nigeria 6.0, Pakistan 5.6 and Syria 4.7

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Figure 10-5 Population Age Structures for
Sub-Saharan Africa, 1990

• Source Adapted from Wolfgang Lutz,The Future of
  the World Population. Washington, D.C.
  Population Reference Bureau, 1994. Reprinted by
  permission of the Population Bureau.

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Figure 10-5 Population Age Structures for
Western Europe, 1990

• Source Adapted from Wolfgang Lutz,The Future of
  the World Population. Washington, D.C.
  Population Reference Bureau, 1994. Reprinted by
  permission of the Population Bureau.

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Figure 10-6 Alternative Futures for World
Population

• Source Adapted from Wolfgang Lutz,The Future of
  the World Population. Washington, D.C.
  Population Reference Bureau, 1994. Reprinted by
  permission of the Population Bureau.

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Figure 10-6 Alternative Futures for World
Population

• Source Adapted from Wolfgang Lutz,The Future of
  the World Population. Washington, D.C.
  Population Reference Bureau, 1994. Reprinted by
  permission of the Population Bureau.

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Figure 10-7 The Demographic Transition
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Theory of Demographic Transition

• First Stage ? Both birth death rates are high
• Large families are common
• Medical care is poor and many children die young
• On average, a family only produces only two
  surviving children
• Corresponds to pre-industrial Europe

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Theory of Demographic Transition

• Second Stage ? Death rates fall rapidly as
  standards of living, public health, medical
  care improve
• Birth rates remain high because families still
  view numerous children as a form of old-age
  insurance
• Result is rapidly growing population
• Industrialization has taken off as in nineteenth
  century Europe

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Theory of Demographic Transition

• Third Stage ? Declining birth rates and declining
  net population growth rates
• Result of rapid population and economic growth
• Also, improvement in social conditions
• Child labor laws
• Unemployment compensation
• Social Security systems
• Private pension plans
• Greater educational opportunity
• Greater opportunities for women

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Theory of Demographic Transition

• Fourth Stage ? Low birth rates and low death
  rates
• Total population numbers at issue are much larger
• Europe and U.S. drew on rest of world for natural
  resource supplies developing world will NOT
  have these options
• Projections of population stabilization depend
  strongly on rapid fertility decline
• Sporadic economic growth around world many
  dual economies many people have not achieved
  living standards that contribute to fertility
  decline

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Population Economic Growth

• Increased Dependency Ratios
• Increased Income Equality
• Natural Resource Limitations
• Market Failure

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Ecological Perspectives

• Carrying capacity practical limits to the
  population a region can carry
• Increased artificial fertilizer
• Extracting large quantities of fossil fuels
  (burning causes Greenhouse Effect)

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Ecological Perspectives on Population Growth

• Ehrlich Ehrlich identify 3 areas in which
  current economic activities are undermining the
  planets long-term carrying capacity
• Erosion degradation of topsoil worldwide 24
  billion tons annually
• Overuse pollution of fresh water supplies
• Loss of biodiversity

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Ecological Footprints

• Australia 5
• U.S. -3.6
• Canada 1.9
• Iceland 14.3
• Singapore -6.8
• China -0.4

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Can you describe

• The Dynamics of Population Growth?
• The Theory of Demographic Transition?
• Population Growth Economic Growth?
• Ecological Perspectives on Population Growth?

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Questions?