Elections in the US:

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Elections in the US

• Gerrymandering paradoxes

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Plurality elections Discussion/assessment

• Majoritarian systems who wins? (e.g.,
  parliamentary elections in NZ)
• Gerrymandering
• Proportional representation Alabama other
  paradoxes

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FPTP/plurality strengths weaknesses

• Strength its capacity to deliver a majority
  government
• Weakness only probabilistic connection between
  inputs (votes/results) and outcomes
  (seats/results)
• E.g., NZ 1978-81 (USA 2000?)

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Advantage of plurality?

• Plurality is a giant conjuring trick, pulling the
  rabbit of majority government out of the hat of a
  divided society (Hague Harrop, p. 149)

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Criticism

• From a New Zealand perspective, advocacy of the
  plurality method based on its ability to better
  dismiss unpopular governments makes a good joke
• Pluralitys side effect Gerrymandering

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Alabama Paradox

• Q proportional representation in the US?
• A apportionment of seats in the House
• Side effects some unexpected and
  counter-intuitive results

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House Seats Apportionment

• Should be quite straightforward, right?
• E.g., if vote is D 45, R 55, and we have
  100 seats
• then D 45 seats, R 55 seats
• But the devil is in the details

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Example 1

• Suppose vote is
• Dem 43.2, Rep 53.3, Green 3.5
• With 100 seats, D 43, R 53, G 3
• Who gets the 100th seat?
• Hamilton largest remainder
• Next, a made-up example after that, the actual
  historical examples

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The Alabama Paradox

• An increase in the total number of seats to be
  apportioned causes a state to lose a seat
• 1880 new apportionment
• If House 299, Alabama gets 8 seats
• If House 300, Alabama gets only 7 seats!

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The Population Paradox

• An increase in a states population can cause it
  to lose a seat
• Around 1900 Virginia growing about 60 faster
  than Maine
• New apportionment Virginia lost a seat, Maine
  gained a seat

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The New States Paradox

• Adding a new state with its fair share of seats
  can affect the number of seats due other states
• 1907 Oklahoma added House 386
• OK entitled to five seats House 391
• House 391 ? Maine gained a seat, New York lost
  one seat