Ecological Forecasting at NASA: Why and How

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Ecological Forecasting at NASAWhy and How?

• Woody Turner
• NASA Office of Earth Science
• May 4, 2004
• Invasive Species Science Team Meeting

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Life Changes (but in a predictable pattern?)
The concept of pattern or regularity is central
to science. Pattern implies some sort of
repetition. The existence of repetition means
some prediction is possiblehaving witnessed an
event once, we can partially predict its future
course when it repeats itself.

• Robert MacArthur in Geographical Ecology 1972

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Sir Charles Lyell
Author Principles of Geology A Father of Earth
Science Large Impact on Darwins Thinking if
time can change rocks than perhaps it can change
life
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Understand and protect our home planet NASA as
a Catalyst?
Earth Science Enterprise Mission To understand
and protect our home planet by using our view
from space to study the Earth system and improve
prediction of Earth system change
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Our Challenges

• Biodiversity appears to be declining rapidly
• Estimates say at 100-1000x the normal
  background rate
• Main Causes
• Land Use Change
• Invasive species (including pathogens)
• Hunting/Fishing/Other extractive uses
• Climate Change
• Our Ignorance of total of species lt their
  distribution lt their biology

Can remote sensing and ecological models improve
our knowledge of where to use our limited
resources for biodviersity conservation?
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Predicting occurrence of unknown sister species
Brookesia stumpffi
Brookesia sp. nov.
Brookesia stumpffi
Source AMNH/Chris Raxworthy
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Remote Sensing Data
MODIS
NOAA
Source AMNH/Chris Raxworthy
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Forecasting Effects of a Road in Guatemalas Peten
Source MSFC/Dan Irwin
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Finding Fish by Satellite
Data Capture
Optimal Efficiency Management
Reduces Search Time
Image Analysis
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Applications at NASA
Earth Science Models
Predictions
Value benefits to citizens and society

• Oceans
• Land
• Atmosphere
• Ecosystem

Decision Support Tools
Policy Decisions Management Decisions

• High Performance Computing
• Communication
• Visualization
• Standards Interoperability

Data
Assessments - Decision Support
Systems - Scenarios Analysis
Earth Observations

• Satellite
• Airborne
• in situ

Observations
NASA Research Partners
Partners Interface
Applications Partners
Inputs Outputs Outcomes
Impacts
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Ecological Forecasting
GOAL If-Then Scenarios of Ecosystem Responses
to Change, e.g. Disturbance Events
EARTH SYSTEM MODELS

• Ecological Niche (GARP)
• Scalable spatio-temporal models a la CSUs NREL
• Regional Ocean Models Empirical Atmospheric
  Models coupled with ecosystem trophic models
• Ecosystem (ED, CASA)
• Population Habitat Viability Assessment
  (VORTEX, RAMAS GIS)
• Biogeography (MAPSS, BIOME3, DOLY)
• Biogeochemistry (BIOME-BGC, CENTURY, TEM)

DECISION SUPPORT TOOLS

• SERVIR (Spanish acronym for Regional
  Visualization Monitoring System)

Predictions

• Monitor changes in land cover, weather, fires
  to assist the sustainable management of the
  Mesoamerican Biological Corridor

• Species Distributions
• Ecosystem Fluxes
• Ecosystem Productivity
• Population Ecology
• Land Cover Change

VALUE BENEFITS

• First-ever effort to manage a global hotspot of
  biodiversity, i.e. Mesoamerica, at a regional
  scale through the coordination of the activities
  of 7 countries a model for other regions
• Predict the impacts of changing land-use patterns
  climate on the ecosystem services that support
  all human enterprises
• Develop ecological forecasts with reliable
  assessments of error

• Protected Area Management System with ALDO TOPS

• Coordinate multi-NGO effort to pool resources for
  monitoring protected areas
• Link to Presidents logging initiative CBFP

• Land Cover/Land Use Disturbances (e.g., fire)
• Species Composition
• Biomass/Productivity
• Phenology
• Vegetation Structure
• Elevation
• Surface Temperature
• SST, SSH, Circulation, Salinity
• Atmospheric Temp.
• Soil Moisture
• Precipitation
• Winds

MONITORING MEASUREMENTS

• Land cover MODIS, AVHRR, Landsat, ASTER, ALI,
  Hyperion, IKONOS/QuickBird
• Topography/Vegetation Structure SRTM, ASTER,
  IKONOS, LVIS, SLICER, Radars
• Primary Productivity/Phenology AVHRR, SeaWiFS,
  MODIS, Landsat, ASTER, ALI, Hyperion, IKONOS,
  QuickBird, AVIRIS
• Atmosphere/Climate AIRS/AMSU/HSB, TRMM (PR, LIS,
  TMI), AVHRR, MODIS, MISR, CERES, QuikScat
• Ocean AVHRR, SeaWiFS, MODIS, TOPEX/Poseidon,
  JASON, AQUARIUS
• Soils AMSR-E, AIRSAR

• Impact of ENSO PDO Events on Fisheries

• Combine physical ocean ecosystem trophic-level
  models to predict how climatological changes
  driven by ENSO PDO events will affect regional
  fisheries

Observations
(Future Mission)
December 18, 2003
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Roadmap
(1/15/2004 W. Turner)
If-Then Scenarios for Ecosystem Responses to
Change/Disturbance
Integration of remotely-sensed data with various
model types, e.g. ecosystem, ecological niche,
population habitat viability, biogeography,
biogeochemistry, regional ocean atmospheric
models -- as well as the development of new
predictive models
Species Distribution Forecasting System gt
biodiversity/stability/ productivity links
Ongoing global land cover change product global
precipitation data
Soil surface moisture, sea surface salinity,
global river discharge measurements
Species distribution models with improved accuracy
Operational SERVIR, Protected Areas Management
System, Marine Fisheries Forecasting System
DSSs
Vegetation structure disturbance from active
sensors new data on physiology functional
groups (hyperspectral/fluorescence)
Prototype Marine Fisheries Forecasting System DSS
for fisheries management also Protected Areas
Management System DSS incorporating species
habitat demographic data into a planning tool
Regional ocean models coupled to ecosystem
models global land cover change product
Socioeconomic Impact
Initial operation of Regional Monitoring
Visualization System DSS (SERVIR) for
environmental management sustainable
development in Central America
Prototype predictive models linking
remotely-sensed environmental parameters to
changes in terrestrial aquatic ecosystems
Current trajectory
Operational ecological forecasting systems
supporting environmental natural resource
management for sustainable development
Assessment of land cover change/climate impacts
on ecosystems
EOS global land cover observations early
coupling of regional climate ecosystem models
Steady improvement in models linking functional,
structural, spatial, temporal environmental
measurements (ongoing measurements include land
cover, ocean color, primary productivity)
SRTM
TRMM
Aquarius
LDCM
NPOESS
Aqua
Landsat 7
Terra
GPM
HYDROS
NPP/VIIRS
2009
2003
2013
2005
2011
2007
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RAMAS GIS version 4.0 Linking Spatial Data with
Population Viability Analysis RAMAS GIS version
4.0
http//www.ramas.com/ramas.htmgis