Robert Cahalan, NASA

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CCSP Observations Overview and Critical Issues

• Robert Cahalan, NASA
• May 16, 2006

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Critical issues for CCSP and USGEO

• Observations and Monitoring
• Integration conceptual and model-based
• Decision Support / Societal Benefits
• Metrics

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CCSP Guiding Vision

• A nation and the global community empowered with
  the science-based knowledge to manage the risks
  and opportunities of change in the climate and
  related environmental systems.

USGEO Vision Statement

• Enable a healthy public, economy, and planet
  through an integrated, comprehensive, and
  sustained Earth observation system.

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CCSP Strategic Plan

• Climate Science Goals
• Improve Knowledge of Climate and Environment
• Improve Quantification of Forces Driving Changes
  to Climate
• Reduce Uncertainty in Projections of Future
  Climate Changes
• Understand Sensitivity Adaptability of Natural
  and Manmade Ecosystems
• Explore Uses and Limits of Managing Risks and
  Opportunities

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(No Transcript)
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CCSP Internal Structure
CCSP Interagency Committee Director Asst. Sec.
of Commerce for Oceans
Atmosphere
CCSP Office
Climate Var. Change (Modeling)
Obs (Data Mgmt)
Interagency Working Groups
LULCC
HD / HCR
Ecosystems
Atm. Comp.
Water Cycle
Communications
Internat.
Carbon Cycle
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Deliverables from CCSP Strategic Plan Chapter
12 Observing Monitoring the Climate
SystemChapter 13 Data Management and Information

• Total 106 Deliverables
• Obs 81 Deliverables related to 28 Objectives!
  e.g.
• Obj 1.1 Develop a requirements-based design for
  the climate observing system
• Obj 1.7 Assess observing system performance
  with uniform monitoring tools and evaluation
• Obj 1.10 Develop a requirements-based program
  for collecting, integrating, and analyzing
  social, economic, and health factors with
  environmental change
• Obj 4.3. Utilize climate system models to assist
  in the design of observation systems.
• Obj 6.3. Develop science and management advisory
  boards and councils to prioritize across climate
  system components and to guide system evolution.
• DIS 25 Deliverables related to 11 Objectives.
  e.g.
• Obj 1.1 Develop standard metadata guidelines.
• Obj 2.1 Improve access to data.
• Obj 3.1 Establish links between data providers
  and decisionmakers.
• Obj 4.2 Preserve historical records.

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Observational and MonitoringChallenges

• How to address diversity of gaps in observations
• Key observations to address critical science
  questions (e.g., water vapor feedback carbon
  sequestration ecosystem dynamics)
• use of models to help define new obs
• Benchmark observations for long-term analysis
  (e.g. GPS Radio Occultation, TSI, climate
  reference radiosondes and surface network)
• Socio-economic data related to climate impacts
• How to address long-term climate monitoring
  requirements?

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Climate Monitoring Principles

• Climate monitoring systems should adhere to the
  following principles
• Assess impact of potential changes to existing
  systems
• Overlap new and old observing systems
• Describe rigorous metadata
• Regularly assess the quality and homogeneity of
  the data
• Consider the needs for environmental and
  climate-monitoring products/assessments
• Maintain operation of historically-uninterrupted
  stations and observing systems
• New obs should be focused on data-poor and
  change-sensitive regions and poorly-observed
  parameters
• Long-term requirements should be specified at the
  outset of system design and implementation
• Promote the conversion of research observing
  systems to long-term operations
• Include data management systems that facilitate
  access, use, and interpretation of data and
  products
• Furthermore, satellite systems for monitoring
  climate need to
• Make calibration and cross-calibration a part of
  operational satellite systems
• Sample the Earth system to resolve
  climate-relevant (diurnal, seasonal, and
  long-term interannual) variations

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Integration Challenges

• How to link societal benefits to measurement
  criteria?
• Ongoing user input, and delivery system to users.
• How to interact with users stakeholders and add
  regional value?
• How to link disparate observations to integrated
  problem solutions?
• A bewildering array of observations
• The observations within this array differ in,
  e.g.
• what is being measured
• how often the measurements are taken
• their consistency with each other
• their accuracy

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Integrated Earth System AnalysisOverarching
objective

• Improve the scientific capacity to assimilate
  current and planned future observations from
  disparate observing systems into Earth system
  models that include physical, chemical, and
  biological processes in order to produce the best
  synthesized description of the state of the Earth
  system and how it is evolving over time.

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Schematic of Earth System Analysis/Assimilation
Best synthesized description of the state of the
Earth system
Best available representation of natural processes
Internally consistent and complete gridded Earth
system variables at high time resolution
Diverse array of Earth system observations
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Where does Earth system analysis fit in GEOSS?
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Two primary components

• Ongoing Earth System Analyses
• To provide the national foundation for assessing
  in near real-time and on an ongoing basis the
  current state of the global Earth system.
• Earth System Reanalyses
• To define a baseline Earth System Analysis of
  Record to serve as the nations best assessment
  of how the Earth system has varied over the
  recent historical period.

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Benefits of Earth System Analysis

• The outcomes are vital to both USGEO and CCSP.
• Provide important societal benefits for weather
  forecasting, disaster reduction, ocean resource
  protection, climate variability and change
  applications, agricultural, forestry, and
  ecological management, human health, and water
  and energy resources
• Provide the best possible description of recent
  behavior of the Earth system for informing policy
  options related to global-to-regional
  environmental variations and change.
• Provide historical and ongoing analyses of the
  Earth system to support a wide array of research
  studies, especially on the coupled system inform
  model development and observational system
  approaches.
• Support climate forecasts and climate
  predictability research.
• Contribute to GEOSS IESA produced by
  assimilating diverse observations into Earth
  system models provides an essential integrating
  component that is required for a true end-to-end
  Global Earth Observation System of Systems.

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Societal Benefits / Decision Support

• For societal benefit, need predictions, impacts,
  and tools
• critical to both USGEO and CCSP
• Predictions
• Seasonal-to-interannnual and decadal-to-centennial
  predictions and projections (improvements based
  in process understanding and initialization,
  etc.)
• Assessment of observational changes on
  predictions
• Need process to better engage models in improving
  GEOSS
• Impact Assessments
• Drought and other changes in characteristics of
  weather and climate extremes
• Biodiversity and productivity
• Tools
• Decision support tools (e.g., web-based,
  human-based)
• Note NRC CHDGC meeting on incorporating human
  dimensions in observing systems (May 19-20)

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Metrics

• Evaluate and prioritize diverse observations
  critical to USGEO and CCSP
• Satellite, Airborne, Surface
• Benchmark observations. E.g. GPS Radio
  Occultation, TSI
• Socio-economic data related to climate impacts
• CCSP deliberations based on NRC report Thinking
  Strategically The Appropriate Use of Metrics for
  the Climate Change Science Program
• Observations Interagency Working Group workshop,
  June 14-15.
• Primary Purpose Develop a process to define and
  evolve more rigorous climate observing system
  requirements. This process would include metrics
  to evaluate and prioritize GCOS, especially U.S.
  contributions.

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Observations Interagency Working Group Workshop

• Inputs include
• Assessments of highest priority observations from
  each CCSP IWG
• NRC report
• Benefits 
• More rigorous climate observing system
  requirements and metrics.
• Improved evaluation of proposed observational
  systems
• Use of climate model physics in cost/benefit
  analysis of observing system improvements
• Outputs
• Roadmap for the OWG and OWGDIS to better
  coordinate climate observational activities
  across the CCSP agencies.
• Recommendations on methodologies tools for
  obs/dis evaluation
• Short plan of 7-10 pages.

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Bottom Line

• Critical needs for both CCSP and GEOSS include
• regularly updated Earth system reanalyses,
• metrics for GEOSS that include climate observing
  principles,
• continued development of decision support tools,
  and
• improved mechanisms of user feedback.

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Backup Slides
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CCSP Observational and Monitoring Goals (Ch. 12)

• 1. Design, develop, deploy, integrate, and
  sustain observation components into a
  comprehensive system.
• 2. Accelerate the development and deployment of
  observing and monitoring elements needed for
  decision support.
• 3. Provide stewardship of the observing system.
• 4. Integrate modeling activities with the
  observing system.
• 5. Foster international cooperation to develop a
  complete global observing system.
• 6. Manage the observing system with an effective
  interagency structure.

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CCSP Data Management and Information Goals (Ch.
13)

1. Collect and manage data in multiple locations.
2. Enable users to discover and access data and
   information via the Internet.
3. Develop integrated information data products for
   scientists and decisionmakers.
4. Preserve data.

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Synthesis Assessment Products

• 1.1 Temperature trends in the lower atmosphere
  Steps for understanding and reconciling
  differences (Q1 06, approval imminent NOAA)
• 1.2 Past climate variability and change in the
  Arctic and at high latitudes (Q2 08 USGS)
• 1.3 Re-analyses of historical climate data for
  key atmospheric features. Implications for
  attribution of causes of observed change (Q2 08
  NOAA)
• 2.1 Scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and
  atmospheric concentrations and review of
  integrated scenario development and application
  (Q4 06 DOE)
• 2.2 North American carbon budget implications
  for the global carbon cycle (Q1 07 NOAA)
• 2.3 Aerosol properties and their impacts on
  climate (Q3 07 NASA)
• 2.4 Trends in emissions of ODSs, ozone layer
  recovery, and implications for ultraviolet
  radiation exposure and climate change. (Q2 08
  NOAA)
• 3.1 Climate models An assessment of strengths
  and limitations for user applications (Q2 07
  DOE)
• 3.2 Climate projections for research and
  assessment based on emissions scenarios developed
  through the Climate Change Technology Program (Q3
  07 NOAA)
• 3.3 Climate extremes Analysis of the observed
  changes and variations and prospects for the
  future (Q2 08 NOAA)
• 3.4 Risks of abrupt changes in global climate
  (Q2 08 USGS)

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SA Products (cont.)

• 4.1 Coastal elevation and sensitivity to sea
  level rise (Q3 07 EPA)
• 4.2 State-of-knowledge of thresholds of change
  that could lead to discontinuities (sudden
  changes) in some ecosystems and climate-sensitive
  resources (Q4 07 USGS)
• 4.3 Analyses of the effects of global change on
  agriculture, biodiversity, land, and water
  resources (Q4 07 USDA)
• 4.4 Preliminary review of adaptation options for
  climate-sensitive ecosystems and resources (Q4
  07 EPA)
• 4.5 Effects of climate change on energy
  production and use (Q2 07 DOE)
• 4.6 Analyses of the effects of global change on
  human health and welfare and human systems (Q4
  07 EPA)
• 4.7 Within the transportation sector, a summary
  of climate change and variability sensitivities,
  potential impacts, and response options (Q4 07
  DOT)
• 5.1 Uses and limitations of observations, data,
  forecasts, and other projections in decision
  support for selected sectors and regions (Q4 06
  NASA)
• 5.2 Best practice approaches for characterizing,
  communicating, and incorporating scientific
  uncertainty in decision making ( Q3 06 NOAA)
• 5.3 Decision support experiments and evaluations
  using seasonal to inter-annual forecasts and
  observational data (Q4 07 NOAA)

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2005 OWG Highlights

• IEOS Strategic Plan Authored Climate Appendix
  and more complete Climate IEOS Technical
  Reference
• http//iwgeo.ssc.nasa.gov/docs/EOCStrategic_Plan.p
  df
• http//iwgeo.ssc.nasa.gov/docs/review/Climate_Tech
  nical.pdf
• IEOS Public Engagement Workshop (May 2005)
  Participated in and Hosted Session on Climate
  http//iwgeo.ssc.nasa.gov/docs/geo126SBA_Climate_V
  ariability_breakout_summary4.doc
• Our Changing Planet 2006 Authored New Chapter
  on Observing and Monitoring the Climate System
• CCSP User Workshop (Nov 2005) Session 1
  Rapporteur
• Simple Maturity Model of OWGDIS

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Simple Maturity Model

• DIS maturity in terms of three separate
  dimensions
• Scientific Maturity
• Preservation Maturity
• Societal Impact
• CMMI-like levels
• Initial Unpredictable results
• Managed Repeatable performance
• Defined Cross-project interoperability
• Quantitatively Managed Improved performance
  Compliance with Federal Enterprise Architecture
• Optimized Rapidly configurable performance
  Continuous Process Improvement
• Total maturity vector length

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Feedback from IEOS Workshop in May 2005

• Enhance Integration of Socio-economic Data and
  Societal Benefits
• Climate scenarios extend a century or more
  whereas socio-economic data extends a couple
  decades at best
• Provide examples of societal benefits of climate
  data in lay terms (e.g., building a dam)
• Address Funding Challenges
• Maintenance of data, data continuity, consistency
  of data, etc. which is critical to climate work
• Funding for taking measurements versus funding
  for sharing and applying data and model
  integration (validation is equally as important)
• Gap in funding the processing of data to make it
  useful
• Funding of big --OS projects is diminishing
  funding of smaller observational projects

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Feedback from IEOS Workshop (contd)

• Better at predicting climate change rather than
  climate change impacts
• Understand, assess, and predict are covered,
  mitigation and adaptation are lacking Input from
  CCTP Strat Plan ?
• Socio-economic observational systems are missing
• How do we focus efforts to address uncertainty
  (e.g., reduce uncertainty about uncertainty,
  understand uncertainty, and reduce uncertainty)
• Uncertainty because we dont know versus
• Uncertainty from natural variations

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Decision Support Goals (Ch. 11)

1. Prepare scientific syntheses and assessments to
   support informed discussion of climate
   variability and change issues by decisionmakers,
   stakeholders, the media, and the general public.
2. Develop resources to support adaptive management
   and planning for responding to climate
   variability and change, and transition these
   resources from research to operational
   application.
3. Develop and evaluate methods (scenario
   evaluations, integrated analyses, alternative
   analytical approaches) to support climate change
   policymaking and demonstrate these methods with
   case studies.

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DS Goal 2 Support for Adaptive
Management/Planning

• Adaptive Management A systematic approach used
  in managing climate-sensitive resources and
  sectors to adjust to variability and change in
  climate and other conditions that utilizes
  learning by doing (integrating knowledge with
  practice)

• This area of work grows out of the insight that
  ongoing process is key to assessment and decision
  support and requires close interaction of users
  and producers of information
• Many adaptive management projects in the United
  States are extensions of the first U.S. National
  Assessments stakeholder-driven and
  interdisciplinary collaborations

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Example Wildfire Management

• Research on biomass burning and the carbon cycle
  provides the scientific basis for wildfire
  monitoring and management e.g.

• National Seasonal Assessment Workshop

A multi-agency collaboration that produces
forecasts and maps of fire potential and enables
participants to plan for the coming fire seasons.

• Interdisciplinary initiative on the interactions
  among wildfire, climate and society
• Develops models andother support tools
• Scenario generation
• Fire risk assessment