Malaysia post2008: Old Politics, New Trajectory

1
Malaysia post-2008 Old Politics, New Trajectory

• Professor Shamsul A.B.
• Founding Director
• Institute of Ethnic Studies (KITA)
• Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (UKM)
• A presentation at the Roundtable Malaysias New
  Politics from Hegemony to Pluralism? Friday,
  AAS ANNUAL MEETING, March 26-27, 2009, Chicago,
  USA

2
Old politics, new trajectory

• Oppositionism
• Two-party system analytical frame applied to
  Malaysia
• Reality one-party system
• More useful and relevant to apply the
  oppositionism framework
• Contradictions, conflicts, consensus, alliance,
  factionalism, etc. all taking plcae within a one
  party system, within the Barisan Nasional School
  of Politics

3
Old politics, new trajectory

• Stable tension
• Malaysians live in a society dominated by many
  contradictions
• But we have managed to solve most of them through
  a continuous process of consensus-seeking
  negotiations at all levels within the society
• Sometimes the process itself becomes a solution

4
Two Party System

• Ruling Party

• Opposition Party

5
One Party System

• Opposition Party

• Ruling Party

NGOs CBOs
Electronic Community
6
One-party system, new trajectory

• General Elections (GE) 1999
• 1987-88 UMNO split left half of UMNO (Mahathir
  Anwar in one team)
• 1997-98 UMNO split left a half of a half of UMNO
  (Mahathir-Anwar split) Mahathir jumped boat
  2003
• GE 2004
• Hope for a change Badawi work with me and not
  for me old Mahathirs burden, his own new ideas
• GE 2008
• work with me and not for me didnt work
  shackled by Mahathirs burden, his ideas
  backfired

7
Old strategy, new trajectory

• Back to the streets Anwars weapon of the weak
  - mobilizing NGOs, Opposition Parties, Electronic
  community
• 2007 street demonstration year
• BN leadership weaknesses became target UMNO,
  MCA, MIC
• Issues integrity, corruption, scandals, human
  rights

8
General Elections 2008

• New oppositionism The opposition parties, NGOs
  electronic community found temporary new
  consensus constructed by Anwar
• BN flawed strategy focusing only on opposition
  political parties (two-party system mentality).
• BN lost two-third majority at Federal level lost
  five State governments.
• The new combined opposition drowned in euphoria
  of victory, but whereto from here.?

9
Renewed Opposition the Promise of New trajectory

• Until today, where the new opposition is heading
  is totally unclear mired with internal problems
• Is Anwar leading the formation of a two-party
  system?
• Or, is Anwar using the new opposition to fulfill
  a personal ambition to be Prime Minister of
  Malaysia?
• It seems the latter new opposition coalition is
  not registered as a new party no shadow cabinet
  no written alternative policy documents

10
Where are we now, Where to?

• The stable tension persists over GE-related
  issues new ones (language issue) street
  demonstrations here to stay
• Najib is the next Prime Minister
• Anwar has to bury his personal ambition
  resurrect the peoples ambition for a two-party
  system, perhaps then he could still be PM
• The future is still in Anwars hand. In spite of
  all the external support he gets, is it slipping
  away?
• Oppositionism continues