Fuel cells and hydrogen: Update from the US

1
Fuel cells and hydrogen Update from the US

• Robert Rose
• US Fuel Cell Council
• BTI/Fuel Cells 2000
• KTN On Line Event
• 6 December, 2007

2
Summary

• Technical progress everywhere we look
• Search for high value markets is paying off
• Federal government is trying to help!
• Financing seems to be available again
• Policy drivers remain strong

3
Summary

• Crystal ball cloudy on Federal spending trend
• Partisan gridlock may delay tax credit extension,
  2008 funding
• Gas price run-up spawned search for more facile
  answers
• Climate change debate has diverted attention from
  fuel cells and hydrogen

4
Mobility - Milestones

• Auto companies are promising again (2008-2012)
• Leases! in 2008 (Honda)
• 600/month
• Southern California
• 780 km range (468 miles) (Toyota)
• 2300 mile road trip, Alaska-California
• 100-vehicle consumer demonstration (GM)
• CA, NY, DC
• 1000 vehicles by 2010-2012
• 83 mpg estimated (Daimler)
• 200 mph land speed record (with zero emissions!)
  

5
Mobility - Milestones

• Great Adverts
• Honda
• GM
• Toyota

6
Mobility - Technical

• Progress on cold start
• 5000-hour membrane (Dupont and others)
• Dramatic reduction in cost of plates
• Significant range improvement on 350 bar and on
  700 bar systems
• Flexible EV platforms (combustion,
• fuel cell, off board charging)

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Mobility - Hydrogen

• First public 70 bar Station
• (UC Irvine)
• Auto industry awakens to need for early action
• Oil Industry expressing skepticism
• Exxon-Mobil back in the game !?!
• Hydrocarbon reforming

8
Mobility Markets

• Goods movement/fork lifts
• DoD buying 100 units (PA, VA, CA, WA)
• Tests under way or planned grocery stores,
• big box stores, package services
• California
• 2500 light duty ZEVs by 2012 seems secure

9
Power Generation

• Forward pricing of next generation PAFC unit
  (UTC ½ price, 2x durability and output)
• Expansion of manufacturing capability in response
  to marketplace interest (FCE)
• Federal tax credit support for renewable
  generation significant California market
• CT major purchaser of fuel cell power
• Achievement of SECA program goals
• Managers still touting 400/kw cost target, value
  of SOFC as enabling clean coal use
• Work on biofuels, military fuels

10
Power Generation

• Excellent performance in backup power and
  off-grid power applications
• Hundreds of units sold
• 8-hour telecom backup requirement (FCC) should
  spur demand

11
Micro

• Improvements in efficiency, size and weight
• Novel designs, SOFC PEM DMFC metal air
• Expanding list of candidate fuels
• Product announcements beyond battery chargers
• Safety emerging as a sales point
• Major company interest/activity (Motorola in US)
• Market pull military, device manufacturers

12
Highlights Federal Research

• US DOE hydrogen and fuel cell research
• Cost reduction
• Production and storage
• Vehicle Learning Demonstration
• US DOT Bus program
• 49 M, 10 buses
• AC Transit reports excellent results, 2x
  efficiency of diesel
• US DOD
• Soldier power
• Forward base power
• Weapons
• Vehicles
• Shipboard power
• DOC
• NIST standards, testing
• ATP various

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Highlights - Policy

• House and Senate approved 8-10 year extension of
  installation tax credit
• House and Senate approved 420 Million Budget
• Neither action final yet
• Approval for carriage of fuel cells and FIVE
  fuels aboard passenger aircraft
• 8-Hour telecom backup
• USFCC Product list (40 products by 2008)

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Commercial Definition

• The USFCC considers a fuel cell power system
  commercial if it meets the following three
  criteria
• Offered for sale to the public
• Offered with a written warranty, supported by
  service capability
• Meets approved industry standards or is certified
  by an established industry body.

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Policy Favorable Landscape

• Global energy policy dialogue
• Energy supply in a competitive marketplace
• Concerns about cartels, corruption, terrorism
• Environmental impact of mining, transporting,
  refining and burning fossil fuel
• Global Warming a serious concern in the US
• All nations need help to achieve Kyoto targets
• Nations must negotiate a post-Kyoto regime
• Smog kills hundreds of thousands annually
• Hong Kong worried smog will stifle economic
  growth

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Policy Favorable Landscape

• Best ever congressional support
• Advocated in leadership positions in House and
  Senate

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The Policy Landscape BUT

• Administration leadership has changed
• DOE, White House staff, OMB
• Short term (end of 08) focus
• 5 year H2 vehicle funding commitment ends this
  year

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The Policy Landscape BUT

• Congressional leadership has changed
• More focus on global warming
• Gasoline price run-up putting pressure on
  politicians
• Search for short term solutions
• Boom time for plug-in hybrids

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The Policy Landscape BUT

• California leadership has changed
• More focus on global warming
• Search for near term solutions
• Technology review seen as unfavorable to FCVs
• Boom time for plug-in hybrids (Mary Nichols)
• Proposals to reduce fuel cell vehicle numbers
  required under ZEV /or allow credits for
  plug-ins
• Legislature imposing substantial restrictions on
  state funding for hydrogen infrastructure

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The Policy Landscape BUT

• Hydrogen and (to a lesser extent) fuel cells have
  real enemies
• Too long term, too expensive
• Energy balances dont work
• Not enough / too much renewable
• Hydrogen infrastructure
• Safety baggage

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The Policy Landscape Whats next

• Energy Legislation may be finalized in 2008
• 35 mpg by 2020
• Tax provisions considered separately
• Global warming probably not until 2009 or 2010
• Will need to fight for level funding in 2009
  budget
• USFCC
• Revising Path Forward
• Encouraging caution on ZEV changes