The Preferred Pennsylvania Primary Plan

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The Preferred Pennsylvania Primary Plan

• Presented by the
• Slippery Rock University Proponents of the
• Preferred Pennsylvania Primary Plan
• February 13, 2008
• Team Members Steven Barb, Jessica Cosme, Kendra
  Mundell,
• and Seth Sykora-Bodie
• Team Advisor Dr. Sharon A. Sykora, Ph.D.,
  Department of Political Science
• The team wishes to thank the Department of
  Political Science for support and
• Dr. Thomas Bodie for keeping the peace and
  helping us to maintain focus when present.

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Many plans have been devised

• The Packwood Regional Primary Plan
• The Gorton Plan
• The Mondale Regional Plan
• The Geer Plan
• The Manatt Time-Zone Primaries Plan
• The Delaware Plan
• The Blanchard Plan
• The National Association of Secretaries of State
  Rotating Presidential Primary Plan
• Sabatos Regional Lottery System
• The Post-Convention Primary Plan
• The American (California) Plan

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But none have been chosen

• The solution to a myriad of problems is The
  Preferred Pennsylvania Primary Plan

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Major problems with the present systemare as
follows

• 1) Frontloading
• The excessively influential role of early states
• Low levels of voter turnout in primaries and
  caucuses
• Until 2004 and 2008, low levels of young (18-29
  year old) voter turnout (compared to other age
  groups)
• The length of the primary season
• The medias role in creating front-runners and
  also-rans
• A selection process that is sometimes over before
  it begins
• The influence of money on the selection process
  and
• 9) Limited voter interest in and attention to the
  selection process.
• All of these contribute in some manner to
• diminished democracy

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Our two goals--

• To foster increased democratization of the
  presidential primary selection process
• To resolve the problems with the present system
  identified by The Kennedy School of Governments
  (Harvard University) Vanishing Voter Project

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To that end, then, the Vanishing Voter Project
argues for

• a shorter campaign
• a selection process that remains competitive for
  longer periods of time (than is presently the
  case) so that voters will attend to the campaign
  and gather information about the candidates
• a few week gap between the end of the primaries
  and the conventions and
• 4) a plan that ensures, to a greater extent
  than at present, that more voters will have a
  voice in the selection process, thereby enhancing
  democracy.

• The Preferred Pennsylvania Plan will meet
  these demands.

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Our assumptions are as follows

• 1) Frustration with the failures of the existing
  system will lead to a national buy-in for change.
• The two-party system is here to stay.
• 3) The state parties will recognize the merits of
  this plan and cede the right to set primary dates
  (while still retaining the right to set primary
  participation rules).
• The state parties will cede the right to
  determine both the allocation of delegates (as
  opposed to super-delegates who will continue to
  be selected by the parties) and the right to use
  caucuses to select delegates. (All delegates will
  be selected on the basis of proportionality and
  will be selected in primaries. Caucuses are
  eliminated because they are undemocratic they
  attract few participants, participants that do
  show up are unrepresentative of the voting
  population as a whole. Parties will continue to
  determine the percentage of delegates who are
  super-delegates.)
• Like with the opening of Pandoras Box, the
  implications of the introduction of a new system
  will always be unknown and adjustment may be
  necessary.
• 6) PACs, parties, and 527s will still engage in
  independent spending.
• 7) Individuals can still make contributions
  to campaigns subject to the spending caps
  currently in place (and adjusted upward for
  inflation in the years to follow).

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Major Characteristics of The Plan

• 1) Nine sets of regional primaries with elections
  beginning in late March/early April (depending on
  the calendar), taking place every two weeks
  thereafter, and ending in July or early August (a
  week or two prior to the start of the nominating
  conventions)
• 2) The order of the primaries will be determined
  in a lottery system and will rotate from
  election to election
• 3) Extensive public funding through a designated
  line in the federal budget
• 4) Free or heavily subsidized television
  advertising time
• 5) A newly created Presidential Primary Election
  Commission that will oversee the primary process
• 6) Voting over the course of two days in each of
  the primaries
• 7) Multiple candidate debates in each region

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1. Nine sets of regional primaries

• states within the regions are contiguous (with
  the exception of AK, HI and the territories)
• parties retain overall control of convention
  delegate count
• convention delegate count starting in 2012 is a
  multiple of Electoral College votes thereby
  ensuring proportional (and democratic)
  representation of the states
• the delegate count within regions is as equal
  as possible (within the limitation set by the
  need to keep entire states within the same
  region)

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1. Nine sets of regional primaries (cont.)

• Advantages
• regional primaries are far more democratic than
  a national primary because lesser known
  candidates are more likely to succeed and voters
  choices are less limited, thereby increasing
  democracy
• more candidates are likely to stay in the race
  for a longer period of time thereby giving voters
  more candidate choices (and enhancing democracy)
• no two states, as is presently the case, can
  set the agenda for the election to come
• Super Tuesdays are prevented
• the end of the primary season is closer to the
  beginning of the conventions
• interest in the election will be maintained for
  a longer period of time than at present because
  voting results in the first four regions will not
  be released until after the fourth region has
  completed voting

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1. Nine sets of regional primaries (cont.)

• Advantages (cont.)
• interest in the remaining five regions will be
  maintained because final selection of candidates
  will rest with the last regions in the rotation
• interest will be maintained because exit polls
  will not be conducted until the fifth region
  votes, thereby eliminating media and campaign
  speculation about and prediction of outcomes
• interest will be maintained because of the
  shortening of the primary season
• lesser known candidates will have a longer
  period of time in which to build support because
  voting results will not be released until after
  the fourth region votes
• candidates will need to focus on regional
  issues (to the extent possible, given the
  composition of the regions) in order to appeal to
  voters
• the pressures and costs of travel will be
  lesser on the candidates and members of the media

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2. The order of the primaries will be determined
in a lottery system

• a lottery will be held to determine regional
  order in 2012
• after the first region holds its primaries, it
  moves to the ninth spot for the subsequent
  election (and in that subsequent election it can
  only be positions 2 through 8)
• no region can again go first until all regions
  have gone first in the rotation

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2012 Primary CalendarElection Days

• Region 1
• April 14 and 15
• Region 2
• April 27 and 28
• Region 3
• May 11 and 12
• Region 4
• May 25 and 26
• Region 5
• June 8 and 9

• Region 6
• June 22 and 23
• Region 7
• July 6 and 7
• Region 8
• July 20 and 21
• Region 9
• August 3 and 4
• Conventions begin August 19th

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Map of Regions with Delegate Numbers for the
Democratic Party
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Map of Regions with Delegate Numbers for the
Republican Party
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3. Extensive public funding through a designated
line in the budget

• the goal is to guarantee a spending floor under
  which no candidate falls
• the release of public funds will take place one
  month prior to the first set of regional
  primaries
• for 2012, The Presidential Primary Election
  Commission will recommend to Congress and the
  president the amount of money to be allocated in
  the budget based on the overall cost of the 2008
  primary/caucus season (thereafter the allocation
  will be increased based on the rate of inflation)
• candidates receipt of public funds is
  contingent upon agreement to all of the
  commissions conditions (addressed in 5 below)
• Advantages
• the burden of fundraising is removed from the
  shoulders of the candidates
• all candidates will receive equal amounts of
  money
• democracy is enhanced as a result of the move
  to public funding (Few things are more important
  in our democracy than the selection of the
  president.)
• the campaign season will be shortened due the
  date on which public funding is released

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4. Free television advertising time

• candidate receipt of advertising time is
  determined by pooled poll results of independent
  polling organizations two weeks prior to the
  kick-off of the primaries (candidates must poll
  at least 5 in three of the nine regions in order
  to qualify)
• during the two weeks preceding each set of
  regional primaries the major television networks
  will provide one hour of television time, post
  news hours, to be divided equally among the
  Republican and Democratic candidates
• the order of presentation during the
  advertising hour will be determined by lottery
• advertisements must be policy/issue-oriented
  and positive in tone (as determined by The
  Presidential Primary Election Commission)

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4. Free television advertising time (cont.)

• Advantages
• almost all Americans will have access to
  television to view the candidates
• candidate messages will be substantive and
  positive in tone
• the public airwaves are used to increase
  democracy (by providing useful information to all
  Americans)
• running the candidate advertisements
  consecutively will allow the voters to view the
  candidates in relationship to each other (thereby
  encouraging voters to compare and contrast)

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5. The Presidential Primary Election Commission

• Membership Any party that gets over 2 of the
  popular vote nation-wide in the previous
  presidential election can appoint two
  representatives to the Commission. The chair of
  each party will also be a member of the
  Commission.
• Responsibilities
• Set up and revise regions based on Electoral
  College votes after every Census
• Set up rotation of regions using lottery system
• Organize the debates (number, structure, and
  location)
• d. Ensure (in conjunction with the
  Secretaries of State) that voting results are
  securely held until after the fourth set of
  primaries are over
• Determine amount of budget allocation for public
  funding system
• f. To offer candidates debate slots and
  free advertising time based on candidate
  acceptance of public funding
• g. Engage in voter education and GOTV efforts

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5. The Presidential Primary Election Commission
(cont.)

• Advantages
• minor parties are given representation on the
  commission thereby protecting minority viewpoints
  and enhancing democracy
• an independent and representative entity makes
  the decisions thereby deflecting criticisms that
  the major parties are completely in control of
  the selection process

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6. Voting over the course of two days

• voting will take place on Friday and Saturday
• polls will be open for a minimum of twelve
  hours each day
• parties will continue to be able to determine
  the opening and closing times of the polling
  places
• Advantages
• democracy will be enhanced because voters will
  have increased opportunities to vote
• turnout will be higher because the candidates,
  the parties, the commission, and the media will
  have the opportunity to encourage turnout on a
  second day if turnout is low on the first day of
  the election
• turnout among younger voters may be higher,
  because it is younger voters (who are also newer
  members of the workforce) who may work hours that
  are incompatible with the limited time period
  that the polls are open at present
• because coverage is limited, the media may find
  it more difficult to engage in spinning and
  speculation and the focus will be on real-time
  and substantive campaign issues

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7. Multiple candidate debates in each region

• the commission will determine how many debates
  will take place within each region
• one-third of the debates will take place on a
  college/university campus
• one-third of the debates will take a town-hall
  format
• Advantages
• candidates and news organizations will not
  jockey for advantage in the process of organizing
  the debates
• having one-third of the debates take place on a
  college campus and having one-third of the
  debates take the town hall format will foster
  democracy by increasing the role (and interest)
  of young voters and allowing voters themselves to
  determine the lines of questioning

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Conclusion

• We call upon the national parties, the
  candidates, and the media to put aside selfish
  interests and immediately move forward in the
  interests of democracy and adopt The Preferred
  Pennsylvania Primary Plan in time for the start
  of the 2012 presidential election cycle.
• The Preferred Pennsylvania Primary Plan, upon
  implementation, will lead to a shorter campaign
  season, a longer competitive selection process, a
  shorter gap between the end of the primaries and
  the beginning of the conventions, and most
  importantly, it will increase democracy by
  providing opportunities for more voters than at
  present to have a real impact on the outcome of
  the presidential selection process.

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Indeed, many plans to reform the presidential
selection process have been formulated, but none
have been chosen.The solution is at hand today.
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The solution isThe Preferred Pennsylvania
Primary Plan.