Understanding and Protecting Our Home Planet

1
Observations, Models, Experiments, and
Uncertainty Science Framework for Rapid
Prototyping Capacity NASAs Applied
Sciences Program

RPC Workshop

LaRC
April 19, 2006

L. DeWayne Cecil
2
9 Next Generation Missions
3
Goals of the Science Framework Session

• Overview Of An Example RPC Experiment
• Present Several Tools That Can Be Components In
  Rapid Prototyping Configurations
• Research Results From
• NASAs Modeling and Analysis Program
• Earth System Modeling Framework
• NASAs Water and Energy Management Program
• Observation System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs)
• Pros and Cons
• Project Columbia
• Maintain Scientific Rigor Throughout The Process
• Characterization and Reporting of Uncertainty
• Science and Engineering Community Peer Review

4
Bringing Global Climate Change Model Projections
to the Watershed Scale Pitfalls, Opportunities,
and Uncertainties for Decision Support

• Watershed-Scale Applied Sciences Questions?
• (1) How can global predictions of future rapid
  climate change and its effects be enhanced and
  used at the watershed scale?
• (2) How are uncertainties in global projections
  compounded, or not, at the watershed scale?

5
Bringing Global Climate Change Model Projections
to the Watershed Scale Pitfalls, Opportunities,
and Uncertainties for Decision Support
Potential Partners
NIST
EARTH SYSTEM MODELS AND DATASETS
RAPID PROTOTYPING VV DECISION SUPPORT TOOLS

• Watershed scale, 2-D, snow, ice, and water mass
  balance model (Plummer and Phillips, 2005) with
  input from NASA global scale projections
• Rigorous large ensemble probability distribution
  analyses
• OSSE datasets for next generation satellites
• Rigorous statistical design built into OSSEs
  upfront (NIST as a partner)
• Climate Models in ESMF GISS Model E and other
  GMAO Analyses

Predictions

• Use OSSE simulated next generation and current
  mission datasets for climate change scenario
  assessments WITH associated uncertainties carried
  throughout projections
• Use OSSE simulated data from next generation
  missions with existing measurements of climate
  change parameters from space to estimate the
  watershed-scale mass balance and climate change
  impacts
• Interagency AlignmentCCSP, CCTP, US GEO

• Uncertainty analyses, uncertainty analyses,
  Uncertainty analyses!
• Global/Regional/Water-shed scale model products
• Regional differences in aerosols and trace gas
  concentrations and impacts on climatology
• 12 18 month seasonal forecasts,
• 5 20 year projections,
• Century timescale projections

VALUE BENEFITS

• Impacts of global climate change on the Watershed
  scale
• Water resource management on local scale
• Climate-change impacts on waste- management
  facility sighting
• Decision support with uncertainty quantified and
  communicated (NSF as a partner)

• Natural anthropogenic aerosols, black carbon
• Trace gas profiles
• Climate-Change Parameters
• Tropical/Global/Regional Precipitation
• Total Aerosols

EARTH OBSERVATIONS

• Atmosphere Aura, TRMM, OCO, CALIPSO, CloudSat,
  GPM, Aquarius
• Land ICESat, MODIS
• Field Mission Watershed- scale airborne
  campaigns, Ground-based monitoring network

Observations
Uncertainty Analysis, Scientific Rigor, Community
Peer Review
Next Generation Missions
6
Tasks of the Chief Scientist

• Science Advisor to Program Director, Applied
  Sciences
• Facilitation of Increased Collaboration Between
  Data Managers and Data Assimilators/Modelers
• Guide the Capacity Building for Addressing
  Growing Ocean Science Issues
• Infuse Scientific Rigor Into the Transition
  Process from Research Results to Operations
• Science Advisor to Program Managers in 12 Focus
  Areas of National Priority
• Establish an External Earth Science Applications
  Advisory Committee
• Help to Expand Collaboration With New Research
  Partners
• Establish Guidelines for Benchmark Reports and
  Monitor Process from Proposal Activity to
  Published Documents

7
NASA Plan for Applied Sciences Activities
Research and Analysis Program
Applied Sciences Program
Operations
National Applications
Crosscutting Solutions
supply
demand
Scientific Rigor
Rapid Prototyping Capacity
RO
NASA Earth Science Research
Integrated System Solution
Societal Benefits
Solutions Network
Uncertainty Analysis

• Water and Energy
• Climate
• Weather
• Carbon
• Solid Earth
• Atm Composition
• Solar

• Verification and Validation

• Benchmarking

• Evaluation

8
Why host a global modeling session at a future
AGU meeting?

• Earth is a complex system driven by many physical
  processes
• Understanding the earth systems naturally
  gravitates towards modeling
• Capacity of computing systems allow increasingly
  more detailed and sophisticated modeling
• More sophisticated models require understanding
  across discipline boundaries (oceans to
  atmospheres to solid earth geophysics) and ever
  increasing demand for observations to validate
  and initialize the models, and potential for
  assimilation into the models

9
Why should modelers and data providers work more
closely?

• Earth observations have increased many fold in
  the past decade, and models are arguably the
  biggest consumer of those earth observations
• Theres a perception that observational data are
  underutilized in global models and when they are
  used, they are used inefficiently

10
(No Transcript)
11

• Late Pleistocene pluvial lakes in the Western
  Great Basin
• Reheis et al.

12
Essence of the session Exchange of
information

• about models and their needs for data.
• about data sets of potential interest to models
• about modeling techniques of potential use across
  earth science modeling communities

13
(No Transcript)
14
Intellectual Leadership
15
Contact Information
L. DeWayne Cecil, Ph.D. NASA Applied Sciences
Program Chief Scientist/Systems Engineer NASA
Headquarters 300 E St. SW Washington, DC
20546 202-358-0743 lcecil_at_hq.nasa.gov