PP a panel in transition

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PP - a panel in transition
Firework on the completion of the Pacific Panel
Meeting, Perth, March 2009
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Biding sayonara

• David Neelin
• Amy Clement
• Magdalena Balmaseda (will continue to work with
  us, but not as an official member)
• Bill Crawford, as of September 2009

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Welcoming

• Markus Jochum
• Matthieu Lengaigne
• Franco Molteni
• Proposal for new panel member to replace Bill
  Crawford Prof. Yukari Takayabu, CCSR

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Chairman-ship

• Axel will step down as chair, as of July 2009
• He has agreed to stay in the panel for one more
  year
• Process in train to appoint new chair (s)

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Outlines

• Recent achievements/major activities 2008/09
• Quo vadis? The PP perspective
• (Major future plans/activities)
• PP challenges and issues (for JSC)

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Recent achievements/major activities 2008/09

• CLIVAR-WCRP summer school on ENSO dynamics and
  predictability, June 2008
• EGU General Assembly session on Nonlinear ENSO
  dynamics, Vienna, April 2008
• Pacific panel meeting, March 2009 in Australia
  (Cai) in combination with Greenhouse 2009
  conference in Perth
• ENSO and Climate Change Workshop in Perth
• Review paper on ENSO stochasticity, in
  preparation
• ENSO metrics white paper, in preparation
• Official SPICE endorsement
• Evaluation of AR4 20-year projections for Pacific
  ocean

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Recent accomplishments ENSO summer school

• ENSO theory Fei-Fei
• Paleo-ENSO Axel
• ENSO phenomenology from observations to
  predictions Mike
• Predictability theory Richard
• Operational ENSO forecasting Magdalena
• Decadal climate variability, global warming and
  ENSO Scott

http//iprc.soest.hawaii.edu/axel/ENSOsummerschoo
l.html
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(No Transcript)
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Recent accomplishments

• Perth workshop on ENSO and Climate Change

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2xCO2 slightly shorter period than 1990 increase
in amplitude
Wittenberg
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ENSO and Climate Change (UK)

• 33 ensemble members
• Anthro and natural forcings
• SRES A1B
• Mean ENSO strength and frequency is sensitive to
  forcing in 20th and 21st centuries

Collins
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Detection Ensemble Mean Std. Dev. 30-year NINO3
(UK)

• Switch from smaller El Nino events which
  propagate East-West
• to larger events which develop insitu or even
  propagate West-East
• More frequent events in the future

5-95tiles of ensemble mean
obs
obs
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Recent Accomplishments

• Endorsement of SPICE

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Gliders measure transport in the Solomon
Sea (SIO/PMEL/IRD)
Integral of depth averaged flow along glider
tracks away from Rossel Island. Color codes are
year/month of cruise. Transport at end of 2007
was low or out of Solomon Sea. July 2008 showed
strong inflow. Each cruise can contribute up to 3
curves indicated by line type. (Davis, SIO)
Tracks and vectors of 0-700 m average flow from
first 4 Spray glider cruises between the Solomon
Islands and Rossel Island, the SE corner of the
new Guinea continental shelf. (Kessler, PMEL)
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CLIVAR quo vadis?

• The Pacific Panel Perspective

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Major future plans/activities

• Continuation of existing initiatives
• ENSO prediction and dynamics, ENSO and Climate
  Change
• Understanding of ENSO-annual cycle interactions
• Repeat hydrography program
• Understanding of western boundary current
  dynamics
• New thrusts for CLIVAR CLIVAR Pacific
• Decadal Predictability
• SPCZ dynamics
• Regional aspects of greenhouse warming
• Inter-basin connections
• High-end climate sensitivities
• Possibility to equip ARGO floats, TAO moorings
  with pH sensors

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ContinuationENSO dynamics and prediction

From 1 October 2008
Obs.

• Issues that need to be resolved are
• Westerly wind burst-ENSO interactions
• Coupled model initialization
• Decadal variations of ENSO and ENSO prediction
  skill
• Model biases
• Role of ocean noise TIWs

Nino3.4 (5ºS-5ºN, 120º-170ºW) SSTA forecasts
(SINTEX-F CGCM), Luo, Yamagata
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ContinuationsWestern Boundary Currents

• Continued monitoring of WBCs
• Better understanding of tropical-
• extratropical linkages
• Role of East Australian Current (EAC)
• in driving regional climate?
• Role of WBCs in heat and freshwater
• transport

One important goal of the CLIVAR Pacific panel
will be a better coordination of SPICE and NPOCE
(China), OKMC (USA), Japanese, Korean, PCCSP
(Australia) to help resolve key questions on
the discharging and recharging of heat in the
equatorial region.
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New Thrusts Decadal Predictability

• Key issues that need to be addressed are the
  following
• What are the variables that exhibit highest
  forecasting skill?
• How do we initialize coupled models for decadal
  forecasts?
• How do we validate decadal forecasts, given the
  brevity of the instrumental data?
• What are the potential applications?
• Can CLIVAR help to develop interfaces between
  decadal forecasts and society?

Best estimates of temperature K changes for the
next 15 years (2009-2024) using 25 climate models
and three greenhouse gas emission scenarios.
Transparent areas mark regions in which the
level of natural decadal variability (2x sigma of
decadal trends) exceeds the anthropogenic signal.
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New Thrusts SPCZ dynamics
Annual mean precipitation CMAP and IPCC MME

• SPCZ marks one of the worlds largest rainfall
  regions, and is a dominant feature of Southern
  Hemisphere climate
• Fundamentally important to climate of many
  south-west Pacific island nations
• Not well simulated in most CGCMs (see above)
• Greater focus on SPCZ research e.g., through
  SPICE, PCCSP could lead to a major CLIVAR legacy

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New ThrustsRegional aspects of Global Warming
8 member MME ?SST 2100-2000
Regional aspects on climate need to be studied
using a hierarchy of regional models so far it
is completely unknown how e.g. small islands will
be affected by greenhouse warming regional ocean
circulation features, island wake effects play a
crucial role are there niches in which corals
can survive SST increases and ocean
acidification Opportunity for the CLIVAR
community to link with the climate impacts
community
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New ThrustsInter-basin connections
DJF atmospheric response to tropical Atlantic
SSTA forcing

• Better understanding of
• Inter-basin connections
• important for
• Assessment of model
• biases
• Potential predictive skill
• in remote regions
• Understanding of long-term
• climate trends
• Detection and attribution

DJF SST, SLP, precipitation anomalies
Okumura et al., J. Climate (2009)
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New ThrustsHigh-end climate sensitivities
Stainforth et al. 2005
The frequency distribution of simulated climate
sensitivity using 47334 model simulations
from Climateprediction.net

• Frequency distributions of Temperature (colours
  indicate density of trajectories per 0.1 K
  interval) through the three phases of the
  simulation. Frequency distribution of the 414
  model versions. In this graph temperature is
  shown relative to the value at the end of the
  calibration phase and where initial condition
  ensemble members exist, their mean has been taken
  for each time point.

What processes are responsible For high-end
climate sensitivities? What is the chance to have
run-away effects for 2 to 4 x CO2? Establish a
working group for high sensitivity cases
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PP Challenges and issues (for JSC)

• Bridge the gap between process understanding and
  prediction by supporting workshops
• Organize joint scientific meetings of all the
  basin panel chairs and co-chairs to stimulate
  cross-basin interactions
• Clarify the expected major legacies of CLIVAR
• Re-focus limited resources on achievement of
  major legacies
• Support IPCC activities by organizing workshops,
  provide synthesis
• Have an open discussion on the need and readiness
  of seamless prediction
• One climate application expert or climate
  service providers on every panel

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End
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Input to SSG16 report

• Panel or Working Group PACIFIC PANEL
• 1. Contributions to developing CLIVAR science and
  fit, where appropriate, to the JSC cross cutting
  topics (Seasonal to decadal prediction,
  atmospheric chemistry, ACC, sea-level, monsoon,
  IPY, extreme events)
• Seasonal to Decadal Prediction OceanObs09 two
  relevant white papers accepted
• Sea level Assessment of decadal sea level
  prediction skill in North Pacific, contribution
  to KESS
• ACC ENSO and global warming workshop, Perth
  Australia, Joint paper in preparation
• Extreme events EGU sessions organized on El
  Niño dynamics with emphasis on extreme El Nino
  events
• Monsoons SPCZ
• 2. Cooperation with other WCRP projects, outside
  bodies (e,g IGBP) and links to applications 
• 3. Workshops/meetings held 
• 2007, 2008 EGU sessions on ENSO
  dynamics and predictability
• 2008 ENSO summer school, Big
  Island
• 2009 Perth, Workshop, ENSO and
  climate change
• 2009 Perth, Pacific panel meeting

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Input to SSG16 report

• 4. New activities being planned, including
  timeline (modeling, synthesis activities,
  workshops and future applications), 
• Ocean circulation and oxygen minimum zones ???
• Ocean circulation and patterns of ocean
  acidification ???
• Coordinated SPCZ analysis in obs., AMIP, CMIP3,
  CMIP5 runs and high resolution AGCMs
• ENSO and applications workshop in Ecuador in
  conjunction with Pacific panel meeting ???
• 5. Workshops/meetings planned (see ANNEX B
  also) 
• SPCZ workshop South Pacific, summer 2010, Samoa
  ???
• ENSO and applications workshop combined PP
  meeting, Ecuador, 2011
• 6. Issues for the SSG
• Bridge the gap between process understanding and
  prediction by supporting workshops
• Organize joint meetings of all the basin panel
  chairs and co-chairs to stimulate cross-basin
  scientific interactions
• Clarify the expected major legacies of CLIVAR
• Re-focus limited resources on achievement of
  major legacies
• Support IPCC activities by organizing workshops
  that would suit IPCC needs
• Have an open discussion on the need and readiness
  of seamless prediction

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End
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Decadal Prediction
Pohlmann et al. 2006
Regression of modeled LF JJAS Rainfall Anomaly
on modeled AMO Index
Impacts of the AMO (left, in GFDL CM2.1) and the
MOC (rigt, in E5-OM1)
Zhang and Delworth 2007
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An Observational Initiative on the
Origin/Variability of the Kuroshio and Mindanao
Current
Bo Qiu Dept of Oceanography, University of
Hawaii
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What are interesting slow variablesthat might
have relatively high skill?

• Sea level, thermocline depth
• Nutrients, productivity
• Groundwater, vegetation, soil moisture
• Reservoir levels
• Sea-ice, snow cover
• Melting of ice-sheets
• salinity

11/11/2009
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Continuation of existing initiativesCO2 repeat
hydrography
2003 2011
Conduct ongoing program in which ocean sections
spanning the global
ocean are reoccupied every 10 years.

• Complete the first global decadal survey of
  carbon inventories by 2012 as planned.
• Continue to foster collaborations modeling groups
• Explore new technologies such as ARGO equipped
  with O2 and pH sensors

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Regime predictability
Is there any long-term predictability In the
higher order moments? Why did ENSO change its
dynamical behavior completely around 1976? What
are the precursors of such PDF regime
shifts? What is the likelihood of future
regime changes? Can CGCMs be used to predict
them several years ahead? What about their
persistence?
PDF of PC1 and PC2 of eastern equatorial Pacific
SSTA Post 76 era, pre 76 era
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Summer-school-related Publications

• CLIVAR newsletter
• PAGES newsletter
• AMOS newsletter
• IPRC newsletter

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Pacific Climate Change Science Program (PCCSP)
Scott Power Bureau of Meteorology/CSIRO
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The (Australian) International Climate Change
Adaptation Initiative

• Announced by Federal Minister for Climate Change
  and Water at Greenhouse 2009
• Total of AUD150m to end of 2011
• Assist climate change adaptation in 16 developing
  (island) countries in our region
• Includes funds for e.g. on the ground adaptation,
  vulnerability assessment, scholarships, training,
  support for building infrastructure and a AUD20m
  climate research component called the Pacific
  Climate Change Science Program
• The clock is ticking!

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The Pacific Climate Change Science Program

• Countries in scope Cook Islands, Federated
  States of Micronesia, Fiji, Kiribati, Republic of
  Marshall Islands, Nauru, Niue, Palau, Papua-New
  Guinea, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu,
  Vanuatu, Timor-Leste
• Work with Partner Country representatives,
  regional organisations, DCC, AusAID, other
  national and international research providers to
• conduct climate research to assist Partner
  Countries adapt to climate change
• ensure that research conducted will benefit
  decision-making
• enhance research capacity in Partner Countries

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Chairman-ship

• Axel will step down as chair, as of July 2009
• He has agreed to stay in the panel for one more
  year
• Process in train to appoint new chairs.