POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION PIPELINE MODELING TOOL

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POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION PIPELINE MODELING TOOL

• Tool to look at factors affecting postsecondary
  student flow and outcomes
• Uses 1999-2001 USDOE data as baseline
• Includes all public institutions, all non-profit
  private institutions, most larger for-profit
  private institutions
• Data and variables not perfect--will be further
  refined and adjusted
• Snapshot of system at a given point in time
• Useful to help formulate questions, establish
  directions for further research

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KEY STARTING POINTS

• 750,000 Postsecondary Students (Fall 2000)
• 51,000 Bachelor Degrees Granted (2000-2001)
• 120,000 High School Graduates (2000-2001)
• 65 High School Graduation Rate
• 60 Florida Postsecondary Continuation Rate

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DIFFICULTIES CITED BY 1995-96 BEGINNING US
POSTSECONDARY STUDENTS, IN PERCENTAGES
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REASONS CITED BY 1995-96 BEGINNING POSTSEC.
STUDENTS WHO LEFT POSTSEC. EDUCATION BY 1998, IN
PERCENTAGES
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DIFFICULTIES REPORTED BY BEGINNING POSTSECONDARY
STUDENTS, BY REPORTED PARENT INCOME, IN
PERCENTAGES
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SOME LIMITATIONS OF CURRENT PIPELINE SIMULATION
TOOL

• Headcounts dont reflect instructional volume
  (FTEs)
• Doesnt capture students not present in Fall
• Doesnt use historical or cohort data

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QUESTIONS THE PIPELINE SIMULATION TOOL RAISES

• Where do students go when they leave the
  pipeline?
• What do we want the pipeline to look like?
• What is success? Not all students need Ph.Ds...
• Are students leaving voluntarily or
  involuntarily? Are they leaving for financial,
  academic, or other reasons?
• Where are the opportunities to improve--plug
  leaks, increase volume, accelerate pace, etc.?

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POSSIBLE FUTURE CHANGES/IMPROVEMENTS TO PIPELINE
TOOL

• Use data provided directly by institutions or
  sectors
• Create parallel FTE pipeline
• Create parallel whole-year headcount pipeline
• Add layers for different years, past and future
• Add revenue and expenditure information
• Turn accountability measures into
  variables--6-year graduation rates, community
  college transfer rates, etc.