Computing and Competitiveness:

1
We are very happy with the students that we get
from this university. . . . We just wish we
could hire two to three times as many of them.

Bill Gates at Stanford, February 19, 2008
Computing and Competitiveness
Implications of the Programmer Shortage
Eric Roberts Professor of Computer
Science Stanford University
CISAC February 4, 2009
2
Overview

• Computing and information technology underlie
  much of the world economy and offer some of the
  best employment opportunities for college
  graduates in the United States today.

• At the same time, student interest in these
  disciplines has plummeted throughout the
  developed world. The Computing Research
  Association estimates that computing enrollments
  in the United States have fallen by 50 percent
  since their peak in 2000. In many European
  countries, the decline has been even more severe.
  The decrease in student interest has, moreover,
  been particularly pronounced among women and
  minority students, reducing diversity as the pool
  shrinks.

• Declining student interest in technical fields
  represents a serious threat to economic
  competitiveness at a critical time. The actions
  that developed countries take in response to this
  challenge will have a profound effect on the
  health of the world economy.

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The Changing World Order
4
The Challenge of Global Change
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The Pipeline Paradox in Computing

• The computing industry offers some of the best
  employment opportunities for college graduates in
  the United States today
• The number of jobs in the domestic software
  industry are at an all-time high and are
  projected to grow dramatically over the next
  decade.

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Degree Production vs. Job Openings
160,000
Ph.D.
140,000
Masters
120,000
Bachelors
100,000
Projected job openings
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
Engineering
Physical Sciences
Biological Sciences
Adapted from a presentation by John Sargent,
Senior Policy Analyst, Department of Commerce, at
the CRA Computing Research Summit, February 23,
2004. Original sources listed as National
Science Foundation/Division of Science Resources
Statistics degree data from Department of
Education/National Center for Education
Statistics Integrated Postsecondary Education
Data System Completions Survey and NSF/SRS
Survey of Earned Doctorates and Projected Annual
Average Job Openings derived from Department of
Commerce (Office of Technology Policy) analysis
of Bureau of Labor Statistics 2002-2012
projections. See http//www.cra.org/govaffairs/co
ntent.php?cid22.
Sources
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The Pipeline Paradox in Computing

• The computing industry offers some of the best
  employment opportunities for college graduates in
  the United States today
• The number of jobs in the domestic software
  industry are at an all-time high and are
  projected to grow dramatically over the next
  decade.
• Salaries for newly minted B.S. graduates in
  Computer Science are high, sometimes exceeding
  the 100,000 mark.
• In 2005, Money magazine rated software engineer
  as the number one job in America.
• Employment in this area is vital for national
  competitiveness.

• At the same time, student interest in these
  disciplines has plummeted. The Computing
  Research Association (CRA) estimates that
  computing enrollments have fallen by almost 50
  percent since their peak in 2000.

• Why this disconnect?

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The Need for Greater Understanding

• The failure of universities to produce a
  sufficient number of graduates with the necessary
  computing skills is now widely recognized as a
  crisis in both academia and industry.

• Unfortunately, the underlying causes for the
  decline in student interest are not well
  understood. Although several theories seek to
  explain the decline in student interest, they do
  not provide a comprehensive explanation of
  student behavior.

• These slides represent an early attempt toward
  developing a compelling narrative of the sort
  Bill Gates described during his visit to Stanford
  last year. That narrative is as yet a work in
  progress, and I welcome any comments and
  criticism.

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Why this Paradox?
10
Why this Paradox?
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The Problem Starts Early
The UCLA HERI study shows that students have
already made their decisions before they reach
university.
Source Higher Education Research Institute at
UCLA, 2005
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Computing Faces Huge Challenges in Schools

• People who have software development skills
  command high salaries and tend not to teach in
  schools.

• In many schools, computing courses are seen as
  vocational rather than academic. The NCAA has
  eliminated academic credit for all computing
  courses on this basis.
• Students who are heading toward top universities
  are advised to take non-CS courses to bolster
  their admissions chances.
• Because schools are evaluated on how well their
  students perform in math and science, many
  schools are shifting teachers away from computer
  science toward these disciplines. Those
  disciplines, moreover, actively oppose expanding
  high-school computer science.

J

• Administrators find tools like PowerPoint more

sexy
and
exciting.

• Computing skills in generaland programming in
  particularhave become much harder to teach.
• Teachers have few resources to keep abreast of
  changes in the field.

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CS is Losing Ground

• The Computer Science exam is the only Advanced
  Placement exam that has shown declining student
  numbers in recent years.

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CS Is Tiny Compared with Other Sciences
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Why this Paradox?
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Myths of a Jobs Crisis Persist
There is no shortage of evidence that people
believe the myths about the lack of jobs and the
danger of outsourcing.
Why would any smart American undergrad go into IT
when companies like IBM and HP are talking of
stepping up their off-shoring efforts in the
coming years? They want cheap labor, no matter
the real cost.
I have been very successful in IT, but I
certainly wouldnt recommend it today to anyone
except people who are geeks. . . .
I think the latest figures from the U.S.
Department of Labor are not correct.
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Myths about Offshoring
Thus, at least in computing, globalization has
functioned exactly as the theory of comparative
advantage suggests.  
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A Thought Experiment about Offshoring

• Suppose that you are Microsoft and that you can
  hire a software developer from Stanford whose
  loaded costs will be 200,000 per year. Over in
  Bangalore, however, you can hire a software
  developer for 75,000 per year. Both are equally
  talented and will create 1,000,000 annually in
  value. What do you do?

• Although the developer in Bangalore has a higher
  return, the optimal strategy is to hire them
  both. After all, why throw away 800,000 a year?
• Any elementary economics textbook will explain
  that one hires as long as the marginal value of
  the new employee is greater than the marginal
  cost. The essential point is that companies seek
  to maximize return, and not simply to minimize
  cost.

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Industry Reports a Labor Shortage
April 28, 2005
Gates Cites Hiring Woes, Criticizes Visa
Restrictions
By David A. Vise
Microsoft Corp. Chairman Bill Gates said
yesterday the software giant is having enormous
difficulty filling computer jobs in the United
States as a result of tight visa restrictions on
foreign workers and a declining interest among
U._S. students in computer science. lttabgtSpeaking
on a technology panel at the Library of Congress,
Gates said a decline in the number of U._S.
students pursuing careers in science and
technology is hurting Microsoft in the short run,
and could have serious long-term consequences for
the U._S. economy if the problem is not
addressed. lttabgtWe are very concerned that the
U._S. will lose its competitive position. For
Microsoft, it means we are having a tougher time
hiring, Gates said. The jobs are there, and
they are good-paying jobs, but we dont have the
same pipeline.
http//www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/artic
le/2005/04/27/AR2005042702241.html
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And Various Data Seem to Agree
Working in the life sciences typically requires a
degree in biology or some closely related field,
but relatively few biology majors actually end up
working in the field.

• 80 of workers in the life sciences have degrees
  in the life sciences.

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But There Are Contrary Arguments
January 26, 1998
Now Hiring! If Youre Young
By Norman Matloff
DAVIS, CalifReaders of recent reports about a
shortage of computer programmers would be baffled
if they also knew that Microsoft hires only 2
percent of its applicants for software positions.
Even among those applicants whom Microsoft
invites to its headquarters for interviews,
according to David Pritchard, the director of
recruiting, the company makes offers to only one
in four.
lttabgtYou dont have to be a techie to see that
such a low ratio, typical for the industry,
contradicts the claims of a software labor
shortage. If companies were that desperate, they
simply could not be so picky.
http//query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res9E0
CE6DF123BF935A15752C0A96E958260
Matloff argues that there is no programmer
shortage. The only clear conclusion one can draw
from the data is that companies perceive a
shortage in applicants who pass their quality
threshold.
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Variations in Programmer Productivity

• In 1968, a study by Sackman, Erikson, and Grant1
  revealed that programmers with the same level of
  experience exhibit variations of more than 20 to
  1 in the time required to solve particular
  programming problems.
• More recent studies2, 3, 4 confirm this high
  variability.
• Most industry insiders believe that the
  productivity variance is even higher today. In
  2005, Googles VP for Engineering, Alan Eustace,
  told The Wall Street Journal that one top-notch
  engineer is worth 300 times or more than the
  average.5

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The Microsoft Programming Personae
Microsofts cultural lore defines three types of
programmers
Mort is your most common developer, who doesnt
have a CS background, may even be a recent
newcomer, and doesnt quite understand what the
computer is doing under the covers, but who
writes the dinky IT programs that make businesses
run. Elvis, more knowledgeable, cares about code
quality, but has a life too. Einstein writes
some serious-ass piece of code like device
drivers, wants to get things done, needs to be
able to go low level and high level, needs a
language without restrictions to get his job done.

Wesner Moise, Who are you? Mort, Elvis or
Einstein, September 25, 2003
http//wesnerm.blogs.com/net_undocumented/2003/09/
who_are_you_mor.html
For the most part, Microsoft (along with Google
and other first-rank companies) are seeking to
hire the Einsteins, which explains the low hiring
ratio.
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Productivity Variations Are Common

• The idea that individuals might differ in
  productivity by two or more orders of magnitude
  initially seems hard to believe.

• In fact, such differences in efficacy and
  productivity occur across a range of occupational
  categories
• Mathematicians
• Creative artists (writers, composers, poets,
  painters)
• Performers (musicians, actors)
• Motion picture directors
• Financial wizards, CEOs
• Professional athletes
• No one achieves mastery in any of these fields on
  the basis of raw talent alone. Training and
  practice are essential.

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Alternative Models of Software Education
In many creative disciplines, students learn from
mentors who are masters of their craft. It may
make sense to create conservatories for the
teaching of software arts, similar to music
conservatories. One possibility might be some
sort of New England Conservatory of Coding. (Or
perhaps a Hogwarts School for Software Wizardry.
In many creative disciplines, students learn from
mentors who are masters of their craft. It may
make sense to create conservatories for the
teaching of software arts, similar to music
conservatories. One possibility might be some
sort of New England Conservatory of Coding. (Or
perhaps a Hogwarts School for Software Wizardry.)
In many creative disciplines, students learn from
mentors who are masters of their craft. It may
make sense to create conservatories for the
teaching of software arts, similar to music
conservatories. One possibility might be some
sort of New England Conservatory of Coding. (Or
perhaps a Hogwarts School for Software Wizardry.)
Another model might be to create intensive
programs that encourage students to focus on the
art of software development, in much the same way
that programs like the University of Virginias
Semester at Sea program offers a concentrated
immersion in oceanography, geography, and
cultural anthropology.
SEMESTER AT C
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Paul Grahams Hackers and Painters
When I finished grad school in computer science I
went to art school to study painting. A lot of
people seemed surprised that someone interested
in computers would also be interested in
painting. They seemed to think that hacking and
painting were very different kinds of workthat
hacking was cold, precise, and methodical, and
that painting was the frenzied expression of some
primal urge. lttabgtBoth of these images are wrong.
Hacking and painting have a lot in common. In
fact, of all the different types of people Ive
known, hackers and painters are among the most
alike. lttabgtWhat hackers and painters have in
common is that theyre both makers. Along with
composers, architects, and writers, what hackers
and painters are trying to do is make good things.
Paul Graham
(photo by Niall Kennedy)
http//www.paulgraham.com/hp.html
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Why this Paradox?
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The Real Image Problem
http//www.youtube.com/watch?vCmYDgncMhXw
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The Reality Is Also a Problem
Has anyone considered the possibility that its
just not fun anymore?
Don Knuth, October 11, 2006

• Students at Stanford have expressed the following
  concerns
• Long hours with little chance for a balanced life
• A less pleasant social milieu than other
  occupations
• A sense that success in programming is possible
  only for those who are much brighter than they
  see themselves to be
• Work that is often repetitive and unchallenging,
  particularly when it involves maintaining legacy
  technology
• Programming has become more difficult than it
  used to be
• No chance for a lasting impact because of rapid
  obsolescence
• Fears that employment with an individual company
  is dicey even though opportunities are good in
  the industry as a whole
• Frustration at being managed by nontechnical
  people who make more money but are not as bright
• A perception that programmers are definitely on
  the labor side of the labor/capital divide

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Dilbert Offers an Instructive Lesson
Most students today would rather be Dilberts
boss than Dilbert.
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Dangerous Trends
We have met the enemy and he is us.

Walt Kelly

• As an illustration of this trend, consider the
  following post that appeared on SIGCSE-MEMBERS on
  August 14, 2006

I have an idea for a panel that Id like to
organize for SIGCSE07. Im asking for
volunteers (or nominations of others) to serve on
the panel. The panel Id like to organize would
have a title something like Alternative
Models for a Programming-lite Computer Science
Curriculum The theme of the panel would be to
share ideas and thoughts on how we might reduce
(or eliminate) the emphasis on programming within
a computer science curriculum. The basic idea is
to cause discussion centered on the knowledge and
skills students of tomorrow will need in the
global economic workspace and the implications
for the CS curriculum. As more and more aspects
of software development of offshored, what kind
of curriculum would allow a student to be
successful in the IT field?
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Industry Is Not Amused

• Every technical person in the industry with whom
  Ive spoken is horrified by the prospect of
  reducing the emphasis on programming in the
  undergraduate curriculum.

• At an ACM Education Council meeting in September
  2007, a panel of technical people from companies
  like Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Boeing were
  united in their concern about the scarcity of
  competent software developers. I have summarized
  their position as the computing curriculum is
  not nearly as broken as it seems likely to
  become.

• Employers in developed countries with high-tech
  sectors are desperate for more people with
  programming talent. In his keynote at ITiCSE
  2007 in Dundee, Scottish entrepreneur Chris van
  der Kuyl said that the lack of programming talent
  was the greatest limiting factor in the industry.

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Programming Remains Central

• Calls to reduce or eliminate programming from
  computing curricula arise from some undeniable
  assumptions
• There are more jobs in IT that dont require
  programming.
• Programming is not particularly popular with
  students today.
• Offshoring of programming jobs has increased.

• Unfortunately, this analysis ignores the
  following equally valid propositions
• There are more jobs in IT that do require
  programming.
• Programming has historically been what attracts
  students the most.
• Globalization has created more IT jobs in
  India/China and the U.S.
• Offshoring exists largely because of a shortfall
  of skilled employees.

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What We Need To Do

• Encourage the federal government to launch a
  sputnik-scale initiative to advance education in
  science and technology.

• Press government and industry to improve
  computing education at the K-12 level, possibly
  through public-private partnerships.
• Take creative steps to bolster both the image and
  the reality of work in the profession.
• Make it clear to students (as well as faculty)
  that programming remains essential to much of the
  work in the field.
• Emphasize the beauty of programming by focusing
  more attention on software as an art.

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The End