SPE Distinguished Lecturer Program

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SPE Distinguished Lecturer Program
The SPE Distinguished Lecturer Program is funded
principally through a grant from the SPE
Foundation. The society gratefully acknowledges
the companies that support this program by
allowing their professionals to participate as
lecturers. Special thanks to the American
Institute of Mining, Metallurgical, and
Petroleum Engineers (AIME) for its contribution
to the program.
Society of Petroleum Engineers Distinguished
Lecturer Program www.spe.org/dl
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Preserving and Extending the Energy Advantage
Ben W. Ebenhack
University of Rochester and AHEAD Energy Corp
(501c3)
Society of Petroleum Engineers Distinguished
Lecturer Program www.spe.org/dl
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What Is the Energy Advantage?

• Energy is critical for survival needs
• Modern energy is the basis for all development
• So, Energy Advantage refers to the quality of
  life benefits people derive from access to energy

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Extending the Energy Advantage
More than half the worlds population (3.5
billion people) currently depend on biomass
fuels.  The numbers will likely increase unless
there is major investment in modern energy
services - Source World Resources Institute
and International Energy Agency
Photo courtesy of Jennie Matthewson
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Evaluating the Energy Advantage

• 120 Nation Set

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Two Distinct Trends
Heavy Energy Exporters OPEC FSU Oman Gabon
Trinidad and Tobago
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Three Regions of Energy Advantage
Greece Italy
USA Canada
Energy Advantaged
Transition
Energy Poor
Mozambique
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Energy Advantage Thresholds
2500 kgoe
Is there a difference with type of energy used?
1000 kgoe
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Advantage of Modern Over Traditional Energy
Honduras HDI 0.672 Per Capita Energy
489kgoe Biomass 41
Mozambique HDI 0.354 Per Capita Energy
422kgoe Biomass 85
For the Energy Poor, it will be as important to
shift to modern energy as to enhance consumption
Can we do this sustainably?
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Preserving the Energy Advantage
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A Sweeping Transition is Coming But It Wont
Be Easy for Alternatives
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Assessing the Advantage Derived from Energy
Sources
Net Energy Resource Value

• RESOURCE TECHNICAL VIABILITY
• Abundance
• Maturity of technology
• Innovations required
• Maintainability within society

• SOCIAL ACCEPTABILITY
• Economics
• Practicality
• Versatility
• Dependability
• Mode of use

• COSTS
• Direct (price)
• Environmental
• Depletion (of the resource and of other
  resources)

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Implications

• For the entire world to reach US levels would
  require 1800 Quads more than 400 increase
• Bringing the developing world to the levels of
  Spain or Italy would require the US and Canada to
  reduce consumption by 60, while global energy
  production increases by 50.
• Modern energy expands the benefits.

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What Is Petroleums Role?

• Modern energy is essential to the transition
• No single alternative can fill the gap left by
  depleting petroleum
• The versatility and energy density of petroleum
  remain important for some applications
• Oil and gas can play important roles in
  supporting the development and deployment of
  alternative energy systems.
• Can small-scale, localized development of oil and
  gas support development initiatives?

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CONCLUSIONS

• Petroleum will continue to provide a significant
  share of the worlds Energy Advantage long after
  peak production
• One of the great challenges for the affluent
  world lies in the magnitude of relatively cheap
  energy petroleum provides
• Conservation on the part of the most consumptive
  nations is essential and need not reduce HDI
• The advantages of modern energy are critical for
  developing countries
• The combined challenge is large enough to be
  worthy of our industrys combined efforts and
  commitment

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Supplemental Images
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Rough Comparison of Energy Sources
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Modeling the Energy for Development Curve
Possible Parameters Primary energy used (e.g.
firewood vs. coal) Years since sovereignty
Percent of resources exported
Necessary Information HDI Present on
backwards PCEC Present on backwards Significant
World Events social, technological and physical
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Peak Shape Analysis
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Global Power Usage
Renewables
Biomass represents 4 of all power usage but it
is the dominant primary energy source used by
half of humanity
Alternatives
BP, 2006
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Global Power Usage
Renewables
Alternatives
Renewables, well under 2 total, need to come a
long way
BP, 2006
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Energy and Gender Equity
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Dubious Extrapolated Growth of Global
Photovoltaic Capacity
GW
from World Energy Forum, 5/30/2004 Source
Worldwatch Institute
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Energy and Health
The pollution from cooking overopen wood fires
causes 1.6 million deaths per year
Stock.xchng image, used with permission