Title: SPE DISTINGUISHED LECTURER SERIES
1SPE DISTINGUISHED LECTURER SERIES is funded
principally through a grant of the SPE
FOUNDATION The Society gratefully
acknowledges those companies that support the
program by allowing their professionals to
participate as Lecturers. And special thanks to
The American Institute of Mining,
Metallurgical, and Petroleum Engineers (AIME) for
their contribution to the program.
2Enhanced Assessment Techniques for Unconventional
Resources
- John Lee
- Texas AM University
3Global Energy Opportunities Require Creative
Thinking
- We need increasing amounts of energy of right
type at right place and right time - Viability of many alternatives limited by
practical considerations - Unconventional resources play important role for
most forecasters - Improved assessment methodology a key to
availability of needed unconventional resources
4Unconventional U.S. Gas Production Will Increase
History
Projections
10
Production, Tcf
0
1990 2025
Year
EIA 2005
5Dependence on Unconventional Resources to Grow in
United States
- As a result of technological improvements and
rising natural gas prices, natural gas production
from relatively abundant unconventional sources
(tight sands, shale, and coalbed methane) is
projected to increase - from 35 percent of total lower 48 production in
2003 - to 44 percent in 2025
- EIA Energy Outlook 2005
6Production From Unconventional Sources Will
Increase in U.S.
50
44
Diminished supply of conventional resources
Production,
Rising natural gas prices
Technological improvements
35
25
2003 2025
Time
7 And Later in the World
Diminished supply of conventional resources
Production,
Rising natural gas prices
Technological improvements
Time
8How Do Conventional and Unconventional Resources
Differ?
Conventional
Unconventional
Massive stimulation treatments Special recovery
processes Leading-edge technologies
Added Costs
9Resource Distribution and Practical Permeability
Limit
Resources
Practical limit
permeability
After USGS, 2003
10Resource Distribution and Practical Cost Limit
Resources
Practical limit
cost
After USGS, 2003
11Need to Extend Practical Limits Through
Technology Advances
Cost
Permeability
Technology
12NPC Forecasts Technology Impact on Gas Production
NPC 2003
13NPC Model Assumes and Identifies Needed
Technology Improvements
Technology Area Annual, 25 years,
Exploration well success Development well success Ultimate per-well recovery Initial production rate 0.53 0.41 0.87 0.74 14 11 24 20
Drilling costs Completion costs Construction
costs Fixed operating cost
37 39 26 22
1.81 1.37 1.18 1.00
NPC 2003
14Improved Resource Assessment Key to Much
Unconventional Resource Development
Technology Area Annual, 25 years,
Exploration well success Development well success Ultimate per-well recovery Initial production rate 0.53 0.41 0.87 0.74 14 11 24 20
Drilling costs Completion costs Construction
costs Fixed operating cost
37 39 26 22
1.81 1.37 1.18 1.00
NPC 2003
15Active Projects in Resource Assessment
- Quantifying uncertainty in unconventional gas
resource assessments in North America
- Estimating unconventional gas resources outside
of North America
16Quantifying Uncertainty in Unconventional Gas
Resources in North America
Compile resource inventories and analyses
Provide methodology to operators
17USGS Applied Methodology for Undiscovered
Resources in 2003
18Oil and Gas Resources Occur in Vastly Different
Settings
USGS 2003
19Resource Assessment Methodology
- Identify areas within petroleum province that are
total petroleum systems - Hydrocarbon source rocks
- Reservoir rocks
- Hydrocarbon traps
20Classify Petroleum Systems as Conventional
USGS 2003
21or Continuous
USGS 2003
22Characteristics of Conventional Accumulations
- Relatively high matrix permeability
- Obvious seals and traps
- High recovery factors
23Characteristics of Continuous Accumulations
- Regional in extent
- Diffuse boundaries
- Low matrix permeabilities
- No obvious seals or traps
- No hydrocarbon/water contacts
- Abnormally close to source rocks
- Low recovery factors
- Includes tight sandstones, coalbed gas, oil and
gas in fractured shale and chalk
24Some Dont Accept USGS Model for Unconventional
Resources
Green River
Uinta
Piceance
Shanley et al. (2004)
Some low-permeability gas fields occur in
poor-quality rocks in conventional traps
SAH97.165
25Schematic of Assessment Area and
Petroleum-Charged Cells
USGS 2003
26Three Resource-Assessment Categories Depicted
USGS 2003
27Petroleum-Charged Cells
- Only untested cells with potential contribute
to resource-base additions - Assessment of these cells proceeds on basis of
geologic understanding and petroleum engineering
principles - What we are looking for is untested sweet spots
28Production Decline Curves Used to Predict EUR
10,000
1,000
Production Rate, Bcf/month
100
10
1998 2000
Year
USGS 2003
29EUR Distribution for Continuous Accumulation
USGS 2003
30USGS Undiscovered Oil and Gas Estimates for
Uinta-Piceance Province, Utah-Colorado
Resource Type Oil, MMSTB Gas, Bscf
Conventional
Continuous
P95 7.15 P50 18.47 Mean 20.39 P5 40.44
P95 63.71 P50 191.12 Mean 213.12 P5 436.01
P95 12,145.49 P50 20,121.27 Mean 21,211.03 P5
33,978.81
P95 31.99 P50 37.57 Mean 38.78 P5 56.84
31U.S. and Non-U.S. Basins Selected for Further
Study
- U.S. basins studied will probably include
frontier areas in Travis Peak and Barnett Shale - Non-U.S. basins will include Neuquen and Cuyo
basins (Argentina) and Sichuan basin (China)
32Estimating Non-U.S. Unconventional Gas Resources
Basin Analogs
Known
Known
Unknown
Known
International Basin
33Objectives and Challenges
- Objectives
- Develop methodology for identifying analogous
basins - Estimate potential resources in selected basins
- Challenges
- No public literature available
- General lack of data availability
- Large number of basins in North America
- Which parameter to use? What criteria?
34Data Collection
- Define criteria to find analog basins
- Include characteristics of international basins
- Enhance with VBA to compare L48 basins with
international basins
Analog basin progress
Final Analog Basins
All NA basins
NA basins with unconventional gas potential
Analog rank ()
60 - 70 basins
31 basins
35Data Analysis
General basin information
Source rock information
Reservoir characteristics
36Point Calculation
1 WF1 1 WF1 1 WF1 1 WF2 0.1 WF2 0.8
WF2 1 WF3 0.1 WF3 0.75 WF3 1 WF4 0.7
WF4 0.7 WF4 1 WF5 0.8 WF5 1 WF5 1
WF6 1 WF6 0 WF6 Total Pts Basin 1 Basin 2
Nearness of match, not relative values
Highest scores most likely analogs
37Rank Result Sheet
38Summary Comments
- Unconventional resources, especially gas, to play
leading role in U.S. energy supply in next 25
years
39Summary Comments
- Unconventional resources also to play
increasingly important role in world energy
supply in coming decades
40Summary Comments
- Advances in technology key to developing
potential of unconventional resources
41Summary Comments
- Ability to access resources better, identify
potential sweet spots, quantify uncertainty
important part of technology development
42Summary Comments
- USGS methodology for resource assessment good
starting point
43Summary Comments
- Widespread applicability of continuous gas
accumulation model questioned
x
44Summary Comments
- Final modified model to be applied in U.S., other
countries to identify broad potential, specific
target areas
45Enhanced Assessment Techniques for Unconventional
Resources
- John Lee
- Texas AM University
46Fall 2005 UG Enrollment
Class College Station Qatar
Fish 99 10
Freshman 44 8
Sophomore 75
Junior 69
Senior 50
Total 337 18
47Fall 2005 Graduate Enrollment
Degree Total Distance Learning
PhD 50 2
MS 93 2
ME 34 22
Non-Degree 14 14
Total 191 40