ADN Prerequisite Validation Study

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ADN Prerequisite Validation Study

• Center for Student Success
• February 14th 2002
• Sacramento, California
• William Armstrong, Ph.D.
• Brad C. Phillips, Ph.D.
• Steve Spurling, M.A.

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Todays Activities

• Review study purpose
• Review salient literature
• Examine ADN student cohort
• Review past ADN student success
• Review proposed model
• Provide feedback and direction
• Determine next steps

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ADN Project Study Purpose

• Review prerequisite research, emphasis on Nursing
  programs
• Determine what is meant by ADN program completion
• Examine ADN program completion in the last
  several years
• Statistically validate the use of the most
  powerful prerequisites to predict successful ADN
  program completion
• Make recommendations to the Nursing Directors
  whose colleges participated in the study

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Review of Prior Research

• 35 Years of Research Literature
• Literature Covers Era from 1964 to Present
• Journal Articles
• Professional Presentations
• Technical Reports
• Foundation Studies (Kellogg, Mellon)
• Institutional Research Reports (Community
  Colleges)
• Professional Associations

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Focus of Prior Research

• Improve Program and Student Outcomes
• Reduce Attrition
• Improve Access
• Under-represented Groups
• State Licensing Exams
• Accreditation

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Relevance of Prior ADN Research

• Past as Prologue
• Similar Issues Found Across 35 Years of Research
  and Evaluation Studies and Current Project

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ADN Research Data

• Enhancing Student Outcomes
• Patricia Cross (1981)
• Taxonomy For Analysis of Data
• Institutional Variables
• Situational Variables
• Dispositional Variables

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Institutional Data

• Line of Research Focusing on Programmatic Aspects
  of Programs that Promote or Hinder Student
  Success
• Example Method of Selection
• Lottery
• First-Come, First Served
• Full time vs. Part time requirements
• Costs

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Situational Data

• Focus on Particular Situation of Student as
  Mediator of Success
• Example Hours Worked /Week
• Marital Status
• Support Network
• Transportation Needs
• Child Care

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Dispositional Data

• Most Predominant Line of Research Found in
  Literature Review
• Focus on Prior Performance of Student
• High School and College GPA
• Test Scores
• Completion of Prior Coursework
• Relevant Work Experience in Health Field

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Theoretical Considerations

• Point-to-Point Theory
• The greater the correspondence between elements
  found in the predictor and in the criterion
• Improves the power and reliability of prediction
  of success in training

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Relevance of Literature for this Study

• Importance of Dispositional Variables in
  Predicting Completion
• Consistent with Prior Research
• However Proposed Model Goes Beyond Prior Research
  by Estimating Probabilities for Success in ADN
  programs

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Program Completion

• Three Possibilities
• Program courses completed satisfactory
• Degree received (this is how we started)
• License received
• Decided on course completion

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Examination of ADN Completion

• The cohort
• Demographics
• Success by year
• Success by method of selection

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Nursing StudentsGender1994 - 1998
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Nursing StudentsEthnicity1994 - 1998
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Nursing StudentsPrimary Language1994 - 1998
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Nursing StudentsAge1994 - 1998
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Program Completion by Selection Method by Year
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Student Factors in Selection

• Student factors related to program completion
  within college Factors
• Validity evidence
• Selection models compared
• Bias evidence

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Topics of Discussion

• Validity Evidence
• GPA
• College
• Core Biology (Anatomy, Physiology, Microbiology)
• English
• Repetitions
• Core Biology (Anatomy, Physiology, Microbiology)
• Minorities with No Repetitions

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Forming a Composite

• The Variables
• Relationship to Program Completion
• Some Examples

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Variables in the Composite

• GPA
• Core Biology (Anatomy, Physiology, Microbiology)
• College-wide
• English
• Repetitions in Core Biology
• Number of Repetitions divided by number of
  courses

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Some Examples of the Composite
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Selection Possibilities    
 A B Selected Students   C D Unselected
Students   A / (A B) Percent of Selected
Students who Complete an ADN Program  D / (C
D) Percent of Unselected Students who Complete
an ADN Program (AD) / (ABCD) Current
Completion Rate
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Unselected Percent, Composite, and Selected
Completion Rate
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Bias Evidence

• The Composite prediction of Completion
• Ethnicity
• Gender
• Age
• Language Background
• Effect on Selection

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Original and New Completion Rates Compared at a
Point That Unselects 18 of the Population
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Programmatic and Student Factors in Selection

• Future Research into Additional Selection
  Criteria to further improve success rates
• Interviews
• Work Experience
• Recommendations

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Setting a Cut Score Your Part

• The over-subscription to your programs
• Your comfort level with the rejection of
  potentially successful applicants
• Your target program completion rate
• Your willingness to change the demographics of
  your entry population

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Next Steps

• Where do we go from here?

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Additional Slides

• The formula
• The core biology model compared to the composite
  model
• Program Completion as a Function of GPA and Core
  Biology Repetitions

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The Formula
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