Title: Short Keynote
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2Creating Global Sustainability
3Three propositions
1. The world system as presently operating is
unsustainable a global-level transformation is
inevitable
2. Preparing for a non-violent, minimally
disruptive transformation is urgent the world
system is nearing a tipping point
3. Preparations must embrace all levels of
society, the political, the economic, as well as
the societal. The often forgotten key to
launching effective action on all levels is the
individual. His/her values, ethics and views of
the world
41. The world system as presently operating is
unsustainable a global-level transformation is
inevitable
5The roots of unsustainability
6Projections of global average surface temperature
show were heading for a climatic state far
outside the range of variation of the last 1000
years. We are on the way to making the world
hotter in the 21st century than it has been in
the last million years.
7Climate change the range of impacts
Health Impacts Weather-related mortality/heat
stress Infectious diseases Air quality-induced
respiratory effects
Agriculture Impacts Crop yields and commodity
prices Irrigation demands Pests and weed
Rainfall patterns
Forest Impacts Change in forest composition Shift
geographic range of forests Forest health and
productivity
Temperature
Extreme Weather
Water Resource Impacts Changes in water supply
and timing Water quality Increased competition
for water
Sea Level Rise
Coastal Area Impacts Erosion of
beaches Inundation of coastal wetlands Costs to
defend coastal communities
Ecosystem Impacts Shifts in ecological zones Loss
of habitat and species Coral reefs threatened
8Polar ice is shrinking
Extent of Arctic summer ice in 1979 (top
satellite image) and in 2003 (lower satellite
image). The reduced reflectivity when the ice
is replaced by water amplifies the warming effect
of greenhouse gases.
NASA photograph
91992
2002
2005
In 1992 scientists measured this amount of
melting in Greenland as indicated by red areas on
the map
In 2005, melting accelerated yet again
Ten years later, in 2002, the melting was much
greater
Source ACIA, 2004 and CIRES, 2005
10Computer simulations by the Princeton Geophysical
Fluid Dynamics Lab. Warming under a doubling of
CO2 from the pre-industrial level Warming under
a quadrupling from pre-industrial level. Under
quadrupling CO2, North hemisphere mid-continent
average warming is 8 - 12 C A roasted world!
11Sea-level rise faster than predicted
Global Sea-level rise as recorded by satellite
measurements (upper line with linear trend), with
IPCC projections (2001a) and range of
uncertainty. Cazenave and Nerem, 2004
12Water scarcity in 2025
Outlines show watersheds that are both in and
approaching scarcity About 2.3 billion people
are living in conditions of water stress or water
scarcity.
13The socioeconomic polarization of society
The gap between the haves and have-nots is
growing.
14The socioeconomic polarization of society
Nearly one-third of the global population
subsists on the equivalent of two dollars a
day In the poor countries seventy-eight percent
of the urban population subsists under
life-threatening circumstances One in three
urban dwellers live in slums, shantytowns, and
urban ghettoes. More than 900 million are
classified as slum-dwellers Eighty percent of
the worlds domestic product belongs to one
billion people, and the remaining twenty percent
is shared by five-and-a-half billion.
152. Preparing for a nonviolent, minimally
disruptive transformation is urgent the world
system is nearing a tipping point
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17Two systems diverging progressively
18COMPLEXITY Higher far of equilibrium Lower
entropy Higher density of free energy flow Higher
structural complexity Higher organization levels
TIME
Source E. Laszlo, E. Jantsch
Order by Fluctuation and Bifurcation The
creation of new and higher levels of quality,
organization and complexity, Evolutionary Systems
Theory
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24Sustainability Criteria
socially desirable culturally
acceptable psychologically nurturing
economically sustainable technologically
feasible operationally viable environmentally
robust generationally sensitive capable of
continuous learning
25Not just do less bad (Eco-Efficiency.)Do
good (Eco-Effectiveness)
Eco-Effective
High Low
Impact on the environment
Eco-Efficient
263. Preparations must embrace all levels of
society, the political, the economic, as well as
the societal. The often forgotten key to
launching effective action on all levels is the
individual his/her values, beliefs, and views of
the world
27WE CANT SOLVE A PROBLEM WITH THE SAME KIND OF
THINKING THAT GAVE RISE TO THE PROBLEM. Einstein
WE CANT SOLVE THE PROBLEMS OF HUMANITY WITH
THE SAME KIND OF VALUES AND BELIEFS THAT GAVE
RISE TO THE PROBLEMS
WE CANT SOLVE A PROBLEM WITH THE SAME KIND OF
THINKING THAT GAVE RISE TO THE PROBLEM
Einstein WE CANT SOLVE THE PROBLEMS OF
HUMANITY WITH THE SAME KIND OF VALUES AND BELIEFS
THAT GAVE RISE TO THE PROBLEMS
28Six obsolete beliefs
1. The Earth is an infinite source of resources
and sink of wastes
2. Nature can be manipulated like a giant
mechanism
3. Life is a struggle where the fittest survive
4. The market distributes benefits
5. Money and technology solve all problems
6. Economic ends justify military means
29Ethical frameworks
30Our Changing World-View
WE CANT SOLVE A PROBLEM WITH THE SAME KIND OF
THINKING THAT GAVE RISE TO THE PROBLEM
Einstein WE CANT SOLVE THE PROBLEMS OF
HUMANITY WITH THE SAME KIND OF VALUES AND BELIEFS
THAT GAVE RISE TO THE PROBLEMS
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32To see the world in a grain of sand And a heaven
in a wild flower, Hold infinity in the palm of
your hand And eternity in an hour.William
Blake
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