Operation JumpStart

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Operation Jump-Start
Reversing the Regions Economic Decline
SCAG 2003 Regional Economic Forecast Conference
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SCAG Region 1993 - 2003 Jobs Increased -
Share of U.S. Jobs Decreased
7.2
5.8
Total wage and salary jobs (Use left scale, in
Million)
Share of U.S. jobs (Use right scale, in percent)
7.0
5.7
6.8
5.6
6.6
5.5
6.4
5.4
6.2
5.3
6.0
5.2
5.8
5.1
5.6
5.0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
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SCAG Region Per Capita Personal Incomeand
Average Payroll per Job
AVERAGE of 17 top Metros
SCAG Per Capita Income
SCAG Payroll per Job
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Per Capita Personal Income
When compared to the 17 largest metro regions,
this region has experienced a steady decline
1970 1990 2001
4th 7th 16th
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Wages
The region has also experienced a steadydecline
in wages
1987 1994 2001
4th 6th 11th
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Median Household Income and Changes by County
(1990 2000 Census in 1999 Constant Dollar)
73,000
10
9.7
66,000
8
59,000
6
52,000
4
45,000
2
1.0
0.1
38,000
0
-1.1
31,000
-2
-2.8
24,000
-4
17,000
-6
-6.8
10,000
-8
Imperial
Los Angeles
Orange
Riverside
San
Ventura
County
County
County
County
Bernardino
County
County
7
SCAG Region Poverty Rates by County
1990 and 2000 Census
25
23.8
22.6
19 increase
20
17.9
15.8
15.7
15.1
14.2
15
13.2
12.7
11.5
10.3
9.2
10
8.5
7.3
5
0
Imperial
Los Angeles
Orange
Riverside
San
Ventura
SCAG
Bernardino
Region
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Poverty's Share of Population Growth by County
1990 - 2000
60
54.9
50
40
34.9
31.1
30
24.0
22.4
20.4
20
17.3
10
0
Imperial
Los Angeles
Orange
Riverside
San
Ventura
SCAG
Bernardino
Region
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Poverty Concentration Compared to Other Regions
Changes between 1990 and 2000
High-Poverty Census Tracts
Population Change
Concentrated Poverty Rate Change
1990
2000
Change
Change
Total
New York Chicago Detroit Houston Dallas Philadelph
ia St. Louis Pittsburgh
279 187 150 51 36 70 39 42 63
253 114 53 24 17 67 26 26 157
-26 -73 -97 -27 -19 -3 -13 -16 94
-15,037 -177,908 -313,217 -77,662 -41,805 -937 -38
,866 -26,822 353,907
-6.4 -12.7 -25.6 -10.9 -11.6 -7.4 -15.3 -20.7 5.7
SCAG REGION
Source The Living Cities Census Series, May
2003, the Brookings Institution
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Poverty Concentration is Costly

• As poverty concentation in cities increases,
  municipal expenditures not directly related to
  poverty also increase
• e.g. fire and police protection
• these costs can be significant, as high as 20 of
  total expenditures
• In the SCAG Region, such costs were estimated to
  be 3.2 Billion in the year 2000

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SCAG Employment Projection Actual vs. Projected
10.5 mil
9.5 mil
8.5 mil
7.5 mil
1993
2000
2030
2010
2020
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By the Year 2030

• The population will increase 38

• And container trade through our ports will
  increase200

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Largest gateway
for goods movement in the countryPorts handle
one third of all U.S. container traffic
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EXPECTED TO TRIPLE IN NEXT 20 YEARS
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Burgeoning Pacific Rim Trade will drive rapid
growth in container traffic 34,000,000 in 2025
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An Economic Recovery Strategy
THE OBJECTIVES

• Reverse the erosion of regional competitiveness
• Fill the job growth gap
• Create needed jobs now and lay the long term
  foundation to develop basic industries
• Ensure SCAG region economic prosperity and
  sustainability after 2010
• Improve quality of life through congestion relief
  and emission reductions

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An Economic Recovery Strategy
THE STRATEGY

• Use the energy of trade to develop jobs
  high-quality construction, manufacturing and
  transportation jobs - to raise wages and per
  capita income
• Accelerate infrastructure investment with
  privately funded, revenue-backed projects
  recommended in SCAGs Regional Transportation
  Plan (RTP)

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An Economic Recovery Strategy
THE OUTCOME
The creation of
62,000 per year, primarily through privately
funded transportation infrastructure investment
The injection of over
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An Economic Recovery Strategy
THE OUTCOME
The creation of an additional
The injection of over
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Roadway Improvements to Address Truck Demand
Regional Rail Capacity Improvements
Intra-Regional High Speed Rail Maglev System
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Addressing Truck Demand
PROPOSED SOLUTION

• Construct a dedicated toll truckway system
  (16.5B)
• Charge an average toll of 0.56 per mile to cover
  construction and maintenance costs
• Issue tax-exempt revenue bonds backed by user
  fees
• Obtain TIFIA loan

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Proposed Roadway Improvements
East-West Corridor
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Rail Capacity Improvements
PROPOSED SOLUTION

• Charge an average fee of 5.39 per container
  transiting the corridor to expand capacity
• Take advantage of the interest rate differential
  between private sector capital costs and
  tax-credit bonds
• 2.2B for Grade Separations
• 1.2B for Rail Capacity Improvement

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Grade Separations
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Rail Capacity Improvements
East-West Corridor
Barstow
Indio
184 center-trackmiles, 390 daily trains by 2025
Alameda Corridor
Future Improvements
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High Speed Maglev System
TOTAL INVESTMENT
5.5 billion Capital Development Costfor Initial
Operating Segment
FINANCING
Tax Exempt BondsTIFIA Loans
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High Speed Rail Maglev System

• Connecting the Regions Activity Centers
  Airports
• Initial Operating Segment West LA to Ontario

John Wayne
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IN SUMMARY
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IncomeIn Billions
Employment
Roadway Projects (for Trucks) 227,040 7.8Rail
Investment 49,876 1.7Maglev - IOS
91,434 3.1
TOTAL 368,350 12.6
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• Raising per capita income is critical
• If the region had maintained its 4th place
  ranking in per capita income it would
• be generating 23 billion this year in personal
  tax revenues for the state
• Be sending 5.3 billion dollars more to
  Sacramento
• be reducing the budget deficit by 17

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