Hydrological models

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Hydrological models and Integration of models
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Nice to meet you Nico PieterseNetherlands
Institute for Spatial Research Integration of
models Ronald Dubbeldam Grontmij Advice
Technology Consultants Hydrological models
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Integration of models
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• Outline of this day
• An integrated approach for landscape planning
• How can we achieve cost-efficient and intelligent
  planning?
• Hydrological models
• Integrating models
• Examples

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• Outline of this day
• An integrated approach for landscape planning
• Hydrological models
• Which models can we use, how do they work and
  what are the restrictions?
• Integrating models
• Examples

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• Outline of this day
• An integrated approach for landscape planning
• Hydrological models
• Integrating models
• Should we simply combine all landscape-models we
  know?
• Examples

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• Outline of this day
• An integrated approach for landscape planning
• Hydrological models
• Integrating models
• Examples
• What can we learn from the practice?

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Why would we bother to make a landscape
analysis? ?To rehabilitate and restore ecosystems
there has been a dramatic loss in the 20th
century of natural habitats!
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1850
now
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• Why would we bother to make a landscape analysis?
• To achieve an environmental goal
• Ramsar convention
• EU habitat directive
• EU water directive

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• Why should the analysis be integrated?
• Because many restoration projects fail
• the wrong sites were chosen
• the wrong measures were taken
• the local abiotic and ecological system was
  poorly understood.
• These three points are interrelated
• (Buijse et al., 2002 Meijer, 2000 Pastorok et
  al., 1997)

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• What does integrated mean?
• Analyse the hydrology
• groundwater, streams, rivers and lakes.
  dynamics, average conditions, carrier of
  pollutants
• Analyse the biogeochemistry
• Analyse the effect of potential measures
• Analyse ecosystem response

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• What does integrated mean?
• Analyse the hydrology
• Analyse the biogeochemistry
• chemistry of soil and water related to ecosystem
  response
• Analyse the effect of potential measures
• Analyse ecosystem response

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• What does integrated mean?
• Analyse the hydrology
• Analyse the biogeochemistry
• Analyse the effect of potential measures
• efficacy, cost-efficiency, impact on society
• Analyse ecosystem response

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• What does integrated mean?
• Analyse the hydrology
• Analyse the biogeochemistry
• Analyse the effect of potential measures
• Analyse ecosystem response
• how do flora and fauna react on a change of
  abiotic conditions?

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• Advantages of an integrated approach
• spatial interactions become clear
• conflicts between restoration targets and
  economical functions become clear
• the ecological gain and loss can be made
  explicit for the whole area.

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• Drawbacks of an integrated approach
• the integrated tool will require many models
• lots of data required

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Overall a parameter crisis is to be expected
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• To prevent that the analysis becomes too
  time-consuming

• Choose important themes
• Seek optimal models
• Explore a diversity of solutions
• An intelligent framework to guide the analysis
  seems unavoidable

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Habitat/ problem Definition
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Step 1 Habitat / problem definition
Demarcation of

• Ecosystems
• Habitat conditions
• Socio-economic activities in the area
• Possible measures
• Area properties
• Spatial and temporal resolution
• Available money

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Specific problems with habitat conditions

• Changes of habitat conditions are interrelated
• Droughts cause eutrophication (mineralisation)
• Rewetting causes mobilisation of phosphorus
• Sulphate may cause mobilisation of phosphorus
• Some changes cannot be undone
• Peat decompostion
• Accumulation of nutrients in the soil

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Testing of restoration hypotheses
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Step 2 Testing restoration hypotheses

• Did we choose the right measures?
• Did we choose the right habitat conditions?
• Are the chosen human activities the most
  threatening?

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Example eutrophication is a problem
250
200
150
Area (Hectares)
100
50
0
Filipendulion
Phragmitetea
Junco-Molinion
Caricion nigrae
Caltha palustris
Nardo-Galion saxtalis
Arrhenaterion elatioris
Caricion gracilis / elatae
Lolio-Potentillion anserinae
Increasing nutrient availability
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Hypothesis Groundwater polluted with fertilizer
causes eutrophication of brook valleys
Source Bas Pedroli, in Elemente der
Naturwissenschaft, 1989 (51 25-49)
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Two transects
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60
50
40
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Chloride (mg / l)
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Theoretical background concentrations (chloride
ratio)
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0
Soil Moisture(0.1 m)
Shallow groundwater(0.8 m)
Aquifer(5.0 m)
Case
region
Reference region
All differences are significant (Mann Whitney U
test, p lt0.05)
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N mg l-1
20 Above background value
1 At- or below background value
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P mg l-1
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Cornfields
12.5
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Meadow
10
12.5 Above background value
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.6
0.2 At- or below background value
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0.1
0.0
0.0
8
0.0
0.0
0.0
7
6
0.0
0.0
0.0
5
4
0
20
40
60
80
Distance from cornfields(meters)
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K mg l-1
54 Above background value
2 At- or below background value
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Hypothesis Groundwater polluted with fertilizer
causes eutrophication of brook valleys

• transect 1 is eutrophicatedtransect 2 is not
• Chloride indicates recharging water has entered
  the meadow
• But the nutrients were not conveyed along the
  flow path.
• The hypothesis is rejected

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Chain of abiotic and ecological models
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Step 3 Choosing models

• Is it a static or dynamic process?
• Availability of models?
• Is the model empirical (statistics) or
  deterministic (process based)?
• Money !
• ? Ronald will tell you more about this later this
  day

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Step 3 Choosing models

• Can the process be modeled?
• model performance?
• Technical options for coupling
• What data (spatial resolution, number of
  parameters)
• Availability and quality of data, surrogates?
• ? I will tell you more about this later this day

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Analysis of environmental and societal impact
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Step 3 Integrated analysis

• Using scenarios, explore the effect of measures
  
• Abiotic impact
• Ecological impact (gain loss)
• Socio-economic impact (costs, loss of functions)
• ? I will tell you more later this day