UNCERTAINTY TREATMENT IN INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELLING

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UNCERTAINTY TREATMENT IN INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT
MODELLING
Lessons learned from previous workshops
Lecture at workshop UN/ECE Task Forceon
Integrated Assessment Modelling January 24, 2002
Dr. Marjolein B.A. van Asselt International
Centre for Integrative Studies (ICIS) Maastricht
University The Netherlands
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CONTENTS

• History of IA modelling and uncertainty
• EFIEA workshop on Uncertainty
• ESF-TERM II workshop on Dealing with uncertainty
  in environmental management
• RIVM expert workshop on Uncertainty leidraad

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ONeill Importance of uncertainty in
environmental modelling
1970s
1980s
PhD Hettelingh uncertainty in regional
IAMs Janssen et al. RIVM report Uncertainty
Sensitivity analysis
1990s
ICAM (probability based IAM) TARGETS, QUEST
(perspective-based uncertainty analysis)
PhD van der Sluijs Uncertainty
IAMs Refelections on IA ? uncertainty identified
as critical topic
July 99 EFIEA workshop on uncertainty Nov 00
ESF-TERM II workshop on Dealing with
uncertainty Oct 01 RIVM expert workshop
uncertainty
2002
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Descartes
Club of Rome 1st generation integratedcomputer
simulation models
ONeill Importance of uncertainty in
environmental modelling
Enlightenment reason and objectivity as key
values
Dominance of positivism the search for and
prediction of empirical regularities to make
universal, true statements / perfect, complete
knowledge uncertainty is unscientific
Energy-environmentmodels
Einsteins new physic relativism instead of
absolutism
First IA models RAINS, IMAGE, DICE
PhD Hettelingh uncertainty in regional
IAMs Janssen et al. RIVM report Uncertainty
Sensitivity analysis
Heisenbergs uncertainty principle
ICAM (probability based IAM) TARGETS, QUEST
(perspective-based uncertainty analysis)
sceptical crisis

• post-modernism truth and certainty are
  illusions
• social constructivism knowledge is constructed

PhD van der Sluijs Uncertainty
IAMs Refelections on IA ? uncertainty identified
as critical topic
A wealth of IA models (climate change,
acidification, global change)
July 99 EFIEA workshop on uncertainty Nov 00
ESF-TERM II workshop on Dealing with
uncertainty Oct 01 RIVM expert workshop
uncertainty
uncomfortable splits acceptance of uncertainty
??positivist practice
ongoing search for uncertainty management
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EFIEA workshop on Uncertainty

• European Forum on Integrated Environmental
  Assessment www.vu.nl/ivm/efiea
• 10-18 July 1999
• Baden bei Wien, Austria
• Organisors Jill Jäger and Carlo Jaeger
• ? 40 participants

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EFIEA workshop on Uncertaintytopics

• Uncertainty and climate change
• Integrated Water Assessment
• Uncertainty in Economic analysis
• Uncertainty in IA modelling
• Uncertainty in participatory IA
• Expert elicitation
• IA focus groups
• Ad hoc groups on No regret policies and on
  interface users-producers Integrated Assessments

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EFIEA workshop on Uncertainty

• Report edited by Jill Jaeger
• No consensus report
• Broad collection of ideas
• My (subjective) evaluation
• Community-wide recognition for uncertainty as
  important topic in IA (milestone)
• Model(lers)-oriented
• Rich and useful discussions but not focussed on
  uncertainty, but more broadly on IA

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EFIEA workshop on Uncertaintyconcluding
statements

• There are different notions of what uncertainty
  is and means. At least there is a distinction
  between uncertainties as viewed by
  decision-makers, uncertainties in the real world
  and model uncertainties.
• It is important to assess new methods to handle
  unquantifiable uncertainties
• There is not one method that suffices in doing
  uncertainty analysis for IAM
• Stories behind the numbers ease the discussion
  of uncertainties
• Participatory processes may be used to evaluate
  the uncertainty about particular outcomes / as
  tool for improving our understanding of
  disagreements

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EFIEA workshop on Uncertaintysuggestions

• Peer review system for validating IAMs
  (validation protocols, testing procedures)
• Competition within and between families of
  models
• Need for intermediate/communication interfaces
• Assessment through series of what-if analyses /
  multiple scenarios

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EFIEA workshop on UncertaintyIdentified research
questions themes

• Classification/taxonomy of uncertainty

• Uncertainty and disagreement/dissent/value
  diversity
• How do decision-makers deal with uncertainty?
  What do they need to know to be able to act?
• Assessment of extremes/extreme events, outliers,
  poorly known/small probability - high consequence
  scenarios and cumulation of uncertainty
• How to do expert elicitation in a sound way?
• Communication of uncertainty (both inside and
  outside scientific community)

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Workshop Dealing with uncertainty in
environmental management

• European Science Foundation TERM II programme
• 1-3 November 2000
• Maastricht, the Netherlands
• Organised by Marjolein van Asselt Rob Maas
  hosted by ICIS RIVM
• ? 40 participants

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ESF workshop on Dealing with uncertaintytopics

• Institutional and policy dimensions
• Uncertainty in integrated assessmentcases
  transboundary air pollution, RIVMs environmental
  outlooks, water
• Pluralistic uncertainty management (PRIMA)
• Agenda-setting for social-scientific research

Uncertainty in relation to perception and social
construction Uncertainty is more than
statistics/mathematical artefact
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ESF workshop on Dealing with uncertainty

• Binder with abstracts, papers and slides and
  internal report for ESF
• My (subjective) evaluation
• broad interest in uncertainty management
• box of Pandora feeling
• primarily a consuming audience
• more uncertainty awareness than uncertainty
  management workshop

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ESF workshop on Dealing with uncertainty
Identified research questions themes

• criteria for uncertainty management (in what
  cases does uncertainty management add value?)
• institutional factors, contexts and arrangements
• uncertainty i.r.t. type of policy problems
  /phases in policy life cycle
• uncertainty about policy responses and
  decision-making processes
• uncertainty requires permanent learning how to
  facilitate learning processes (continuous
  dialogue/interaction scientists-decisionmakers)?
• willingness to accept uncertain outcomes
• pluralistic uncertainty managent - convergence
• ambiguity/ debatable constructed certainties /
  diverging certainties
• communication of uncertainty
• responsibility of scientists, codes of ethics

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ESF workshop on Dealing with uncertainty
Observations

• Uncertainty management is not possible without a
  clear problem definition
• Mismatch Scientists address a subset of
  uncertainties policy makers need, and at the same
  time policy makers dont need the degree of
  precision scientists are aiming at

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ESF workshop on Dealing with uncertainty
suggestions

• Strengthen communication between natural sciences
  and social sciences on uncertainty
• Including more perspectives and assumptions force
  politicians to discuss what they want to take
  responsibility for
• (Type of) uncertainty as filter for selecting
  relevant stakeholders
• Fields we can learn from risk hazard
  management, game theory, discourse analysis

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Expert workshop on uncertainty leidraad

• RIVM
• 25 October 2001
• Utrecht, the Netherlands
• Organised by Jeroen van der Sluijs (Utrecht
  University)
• ? 15 experts

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Expert workshop on uncertainty leidraad topics

• Uncertainty and problem framing
• Typologies
• Quantitative methods
• Qualitative methods
• Interplay science and policy / post-normal science

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Expert workshop on uncertainty leidraad

• Leidraad see Presentation Jeroen van der Sluijs
  (tomorrow) paper in preparation Harremous et al.
• My (subjective) evaluation
• high-level constructive discussions and
  collective thinking among variety of uncertainty
  experts
• shared recognition of the need for
  interdisciplinary and inter-institute teamwork
• agreement to disagree (typology, terminology)

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ESF workshop (00) uncertainty awareness
broader recognition
EFIEA workshop (99) milestone in putting
uncertainty on IA agenda
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Expert workshop (01) teamwork towards
uncertainty management
ESF workshop (00) uncertainty awareness
broader recognition
EFIEA workshop (99) milestone in putting
uncertainty on IA agenda
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I wish us a fruitful and succesful workshop!
UN/ECE Task force workshop (02) ???????
Expert workshop (01) teamwork towards
uncertainty management
ESF workshop (00) uncertainty awareness
broader recognition
EFIEA workshop (99) milestone in putting
uncertainty on IA agenda