Progress in Integrated Assessment Modelling

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Progress in Integrated Assessment Modelling

• M. AmannCentre for Integrated Assessment
  Modelling (CIAM) at the International Institute
  for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

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Contents

• CIAM work (partly) funded by the Convention has
  focused on
• Baseline emission scenarios and uncertainties
• Sectoral emission trends and maximum feasible
  reductions, including the potential of
  non-technical measures
• Integrated assessment modelling for fine
  particles
• Dynamic modelling of acidification
• Effects of control measures for photo-oxidants at
  different scales
• Effects of hemispheric pollution
• Synergies with climate change measures

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Development of the baseline scenario

• Baseline projections developed for 25 EU
  countries
• For CAFE program
• Rely on PRIMES energy projections
• National projections are now collected for NEC
  review
• Bilateral consultations held with 104 national
  experts
• Data for non-EU countries in the EMEP domain
  collected and implemented
• Not yet validated by national experts (lack of
  funding)
• Uncertainties about national PM emission
  inventories
• Only few countries have estimated their emissions
• Sometimes large discrepancies, but mostly related
  to specific sources

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Projected PM emissions in Europe2000-2020
EU-15
EU-10
Non-EU
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Sectoral emissions of PM2.5CAFE calculations,
EU-15
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Sectoral emissions of PM2.5RAINS estimates,
Non-EU countries
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Integrated assessment for PMProgress in 2004/5

• Functional relationships for regional-scale PM
  formation and dispersion developed from EMEP
  model
• Urban increment developed for annual mean
  PM2.5, based on City-delta model intercomparison
• Health impact assessment for PM2.5 implemented,
  reviewed by WHO/UNECE Task Force on Health
• In-depth scientific peer review of RAINS
  approach, financed by European Commission
• Initial sensitivity analyses conducted

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Modelling of PM2.5 ambient concentrations

• Endpoint annual mean concentrations of PM2.5
  composed of
• Primary emissions of PM2.5 from anthropogenic
  sources
• Secondary inorganic aerosols (ammonium sulfate,
  ammonium nitrate) due to precursors SO2, NOx, NH3
• Water associated with secondary inorganics
• Secondary organic aerosols (from VOC emissions)
• Natural background (mineral, sea salt, organic
  matter)
• A fraction that is chemically not identified by
  the measurements
• Thus calculations do not reproduce complete
  observed mass

• Endpoint annual mean concentrations of PM2.5
  composed of
• Primary emissions of PM2.5 from anthropogenic
  sources
• Secondary inorganic aerosols (ammonium sulfate,
  ammonium nitrate) due to precursors SO2, NOx, NH3
• Water associated with secondary inorganics
• Secondary organic aerosols (from VOC emissions)
• Natural background (mineral, sea salt, organic
  matter)
• A fraction that is chemically not identified by
  the measurements
• Thus calculations do not reproduce complete
  observed mass Focus on anthropogenic fraction!

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Validation of RAINS reduced-form PM modelPM2.5
for CAFE baseline 2020 µg/m3
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Loss in life expectancy attributable to fine
particles months

• 2020
  2020
• CAFE baseline Maximum technical Current
  legislation emission reductions

Loss in average statistical life expectancy due
to identified anthropogenic PM2.5Calculations
for 1997 meteorology
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Inter-annual meteorological variability Loss in
life expectancy due to PM2.5
2003 meteorology Mean meteorology 1999
meteorology
Loss in average life expectancy (days)Due to
identified anthropogenic PM2.5Emissions of
2000 Preliminary estimates (generic treatment of
urban PM)
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Progress on dynamic modelling of acidification

• Ongoing cooperation with CCE
• Methodologies developed for acidification of
  freshwater and forest soils
• Journal article on freshwater acidification
  published
• Collection of national data for soil modelling
  ongoing
• Simulation of baseline development under way
• Modelling of eutrophication not yet mature

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Long-term trends in emissions
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Simulated ANC concentrations in surface waters
Source Wright et al., EST (2005)
1860
1980
2000
2016
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Multi-scale control strategies for ozone

• Scenarios for hemispheric pollution
• Cooperation with JRC
• Emission control strategies for hemispheric ozone
  and radiative forcing
• Paper published in ACP (Dentener et al., 2004)
• Implications on regional ozone levels
• Impact of hemispheric ozone changes on health
  indicators explored with MSC-W
• Documented in MSC-W report
• Response of population exposure indicators in
  urban areas to regional emission controls
• City-delta model intercomparison (Report under
  preparation)

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Impacts of CH4 and NOx/VOC controls on ozone and
CH4 burden
Global emission scenarios
___ Baseline ___ Max NOxNMVOC reduction
___ Max CH4 reduction ___ Max CH4NOxNMVOC
reduction
Global emission scenarios developed by
IIASA/RAINS, TM3 calculations by JRC-IES
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Change in global mean radiative forcing2000-2030
W/m2
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Change in background ozone between 1990 and
baseline current legislation 2020
Global emission scenarios developed by
IIASA/RAINS, TM3 calculations by JRC-IES
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Changes in population-weighted SOMO35 ozone2000
- 2020 Current legislation 2020 Max. reduction
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www.iiasa.ac.at/rains