National Weather Service 3rd Quarter Review 2001

1
NOAA/NWS Freshwater Prediction and Flood Warning
Services
Thomas Graziano, Ph.D. Glenn
Austin Chief, Hydrologic Services Branch Chief,
Hydrologic Services Division NWS Office of
Climate, Water and Weather Services July 18, 2007
2
NOAAs Hydrology Program Overview

• Long Term Goals
• Minimize losses due to floods and droughts
• Increase economic benefits from water forecasts
  and information
• Improve ecosystem management and enhance
  Americas coastal assets
• Expand information for managing Americas water
  Resources

On average, over the past 20 years, flooding has
claimed over 90 lives and caused damages in
excess of 4.5 billion annually
Providing hydrologic forecasts and warnings for
the protection of life and property and the
enhancement of the national economy
3
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS)
Program Overview

• Provide enhanced water availability and flood
  warning information by leveraging NOAAs
  infrastructure and expertise
• Modernize services through infusion of new
  science and technology
• - Flash-flood to seasonal freshwater forecasts
• - Quantification of forecast certainty
• - More accurate and timely forecasts and
  warnings
• - Flood-forecast area mapping
• - Visually-oriented products
• Provide consistent access to standardized
  graphics via web interface

4
AHPS Program Overview

• Designed as 60 million/10 year program
  (anticipated completion year of 2014)
• 766 million estimated annual recurring benefit
  (NHWC study)
• Operations Concept (http//www.nws.noaa.gov/om/wa
  ter/Ahps-back.shtml)

5

• Accessing AHPS Information

http//weather.gov/
6
Accessing AHPS Information
http//weather.gov/
7
Accessing AHPS Information
http//weather.gov/
8
AHPS Flash Flood Decision Assistance Flash Flood
Monitoring and Prediction (FFMP)

• Continuous monitoring of rainfall with
  comparison to flash flood guidance for high
  resolution stream basins
• Basin data set developed by NOAA in
  collaboration with USGS
• Alerts forecasters when a dangerous flash flood
  situation may be developing

9
Debris Flow Forecasting NOAA - USGS Partnership

• Have utilized FFMP and NWS communications
  infrastructure to demonstrate burn area debris
  flow capability since Winter 2005
• Issue debris flow watches and warnings from WFOs
  Los Angeles and San Diego
• Increasing risk to life and property because of
  debris flows

San Bernardino, CA January 2005

• Terrain
• Land Use/Cover
• Soil Type
• Precipitation Analysis
• Precipitation and Soil Moisture Forecasts
• Debris Flow Guidance
• Service Delivery

10
Planned AHPS Enhancements

• High resolution gridded hydrologic modeling
  capability
• Streamflow and soil moisture forecasts
• Resolution as high as 4 km and hourly
• Demonstrating since FY06 at ABRFC and CBRFC
• AWIPS deployment in June 2007
• Short-range ESP capability
• Demonstrating at CNRFC, MARFC, ABRFC, and CBRFC
  
• Plan to begin national implementation in FY09

11
NOAAs Water Resources ProgramWater Forecasts
Where you are and when you need them

• Snowpack
• Precipitation
• Soil moisture
• River flow
• Ground water

Flood warnings for local communities
Critical information for neighborhoods
and watersheds Water volume and soil
condition forecasts
Working Together NOAA, USGS, other Federal
Agencies, State Agencies, Local Agencies, Private
Sector, Academia
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AHPSFlood Inundation Mapping

• Background and Impetus for Inundation Mapping
  Effort
• Demonstration Projects and Future Plans
• Operational Access and Use of Inundation Map
  Libraries

13
Enhancing the Communication of Flood
RiskBackground

• For over 25 years, the NWS has utilized a
  3-tier, impact based, flood severity scale with
  the categories minor, moderate, and major
  flooding
• For each NWS river forecast location, flood stage
  and the stage associated with each of the NWS
  flood severity categories are established in
  cooperation with local
• public officials

• NCC049-107-070200-
• /O.NEW.KMHX.FL.W.0001.010407T1300Z-000000T0000Z/
  /KINN7.1.ER.010407T1300Z.010412T0100Z.000000T0000Z
  .NO/
• 200 PM EDT FRI APR 6 2001
• THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT HAS
  ISSUED A
• FLOOD WARNING FOR NEUSE RIVER AT KINSTON
• FROM SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE
• AT 9 AM EDT FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS... 13.5 FEET
• MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST FLOOD STAGE
  IS...14.0 FEET
• FORECAST...FLOOD STAGE WILL BE REACHED AT 900 AM
  SATURDAY. MAXIMUM STAGE WILL BE 15.0 FEET AT 900
  PM EDT WEDNESDAY. THE RIVER MAY REMAIN ABOVE
  FLOOD STAGE FOR SEVERAL WEEKS. THE EXACT FLOOD
  DURATION IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT DUE TO THE VERY
  SLOW RISE AND FALL TIMES FOR THIS RIVER.
• AT 14 FEET...WATER WILL BEGIN TO OVERFLOW INTO
  LOWLANDS ADJACENT TO THE NEUSE RIVER.

14
Enhancing the Communication of Flood RiskRecent
Events

• Since 2002, NWS has conducted extensive outreach
  to objectively determine whether our current
  flood severity index satisfies user needs
• Partnered with Claes Fornell International (CFI)
  Group to survey users of NOAAs hydrologic
  information via the American Customer
  Satisfaction Index (ACSI)
• Conducted user forums with State and Local
  Officials in North Carolina
• Partnered with David Ford Consulting Engineers,
  Inc to conduct a national survey of emergency
  managers
• Conducted additional local and regional user
  outreach

15
Enhancing the Communication of Flood RiskFlood
Category Evaluation

• Customers are telling us they.
• are familiar with NWS flood severity categories
• find them useful
• do not want changes to the existing flood
  severity indices
• need communication of flood risk to be enhanced
  by use of inundation graphics (maps)

16
Real-Time Flood Forecast Mapping Tar River
Basin, NC

• Goal To provide real-time flood inundation maps
  to emergency managers during flood events.
• Used partnered data (LIDAR Topo and Engineering
  Data) from FEMA and NC Floodplain Mapping Program
• Built unsteady hydraulic model for 73 miles of
  Tar River
• Mapped flood forecasts in a GIS and presented
  results via the Web
• SERFC used as flood forecast tool during
  Hurricane Isabel Sept. 2003

17

• Graphical Flood Impact Information

Neuse River at Goldsboro, NC
Partnering with NC Floodplain Mapping Program
Office, FEMA, and USGS to develop prototype
user-requested graphics to better convey flood
threat

18
Methods and Standards for NWS Flood Severity
Inundation Map Libraries

• Created for NWS by Watershed Concepts via
  EarthData International
• Minimum standards for mapping topographic and
  base data
• Vertical Datums
• Hydraulic modeling methods
• Inundation map data standards
• Mapping methods
• Map scales and layout
• Consistent with FEMA DFIRM standards
• Pilot mapping study (Goldsboro, NC)

19
Demonstration Projects and Future Plans

• Provide Web Access to 17 North Carolina Flood
  Inundation Map Libraries at NWS forecast points
  by October 2007
• Hurricane Katrina Supplemental Funds are being
  used to create an additional 30-35 libraries in 5
  Gulf Coast States

20
Demonstration Projects and Future Plans
The AHPS inundation mapping web interface was
implemented for the Neuse River at Goldsboro, NC
(GLDN7) on June 1, 2007
21
AHPS Flood Inundation Mapping

• For NWS river forecast locations..
• Enhance the communication of flood risk by a
  developing a library of inundation maps and
  linking them with observed/forecast river stages
• Each library will include NWS flood severity
  categories and FEMA flood frequency events

22
Partnering to Enhance Science and Operations

• Quarterly Meetings of the ACWI / Subcommittee on
  Hydrology
• Annual Meetings of the ACWI
• Quarterly Meetings of the NOAA-USGS Joint
  Committee on Hydrology
• Annual Tri-Agency USACE-USGS-NOAA Coordination
  Meetings
• Member of the Interagency Coordinating Committee
  on Hurricanes
• Routine participation in professional
  associations/conferences (e.g., AMS, ASFPM, NHWC,
  NSC, NHC, IHC, AGU)

23
Partnerships Promoting Public Safety

• Developed AHPS brochure in coordination with
  National Safety Council (NSC) which they have
  distributed to their member organizations
• Developed a Turn Around Dont Drown safety guide
  in coordination with the NSC, the American
  Association of Motor Vehicle Administrators
  (AAMVA), the Department of Transportation (DOT),
  and the Federal Alliance for Safe Homes (FLASH)
• Updated Floods the Awesome Power safety brochure
  with the NSC, the American Red Cross, and FEMA.
• Developed half hour NWS Hydrologic Services
  documentary entitled Waters Fury with the
  Weather Channel which first aired in April 2004.

24
Partnerships Promoting Public Safety

• Conducted the first ever National Flood Safety
  Awareness Week March 21-25, 2005. Second and
  third annual National Flood Safety Awareness
  Weeks were held March 20-24, 2006 and March
  19-23, 2007.
• Developed Tropical Cyclone Flooding A Deadly
  Inland Danger safety brochure with the American
  Red Cross and FEMA.
• Incorporated flood and weather safety messages
  into the American Association of Motor Vehicle
  Administrators' Model Driver License Manual
• Developed half hour NWS Hydrologic Services
  flood safety program entitled Cyclone Second
  Wave with the Weather Channel which first aired
  in March 2007.

25
FEMA-NWS Flood Safety Brochure Our most recent
joint publication
Partnerships Promoting Public Safety
26
TADD Road Signs

• Worked with the FHWA to establish consistent TADD
  warning signs to save lives
• Pink incident sign deployed on an event driven
  basis
• Yellow warning sign to be deployed at minority of
  locations where incidence of flooding is high,
  the onset of flooding is rapid, and/or where
  flooding occurs in isolated locations

Warning Sign
Incident Sign
27
River Forecast Verification System

• Goal Develop a National Baseline River Forecast
  Verification System
• Completed NWS River Forecast Verification Plan
  in October 2006
• Components include Logistical, Deterministic,
  Probabilistic, and Grid verification
• Verification System Capabilities
• Data Archiving (attributes for time, service,
  basin and events)
• Computing Metrics
• Displaying Metrics (graphics and reports)
• Disseminating Metrics and Data (understand
  quality usefulness of forecasts)
• Real Time Access to Metrics (understand errors in
  recent forecasts and over long term)
• Error Analysis (including hindcast experiments)
• Performance Measure Tracking (level of success)
• Implementation FY07-11