Gundula Azeez, Soil Association

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Food security after Peak Oil

• Gundula Azeez, Soil Association
• Presentation to All-party parliamentary group on
  Peak Oil , March 2008

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Food security - future factors

• A long list of factors will be promoting food
  insecurity
• Peak Oil Gas energy supply reducing, prices
  rising
• Climate change impacts on farming drought,
  heatwaves, water shortages for irrigation, poor
  summers, unpredictable weather
• Population growing world population rising
  affluence in Asia S. America (demand for food,
  especially meat dairy)
• Fossil groundwater crisis threat to farm
  irrigation
• Biofuels merger of food energy markets
  (manmade problem!)
• Epidemics (poor animal health genetic diversity)

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Food security - positive factors

• The arguments for Peak Oil Gas are strong, but
  some positive factors could reduce or mask the
  impacts
• substantial investment in coal nuclear (China,
  India, USA)
• new oil fields (inaccessible fields may become
  accessible)
• substantial investment in renewable energy (eg.
  EU)
• response of society markets (energy efficiency,
  less demand)
• Central Eastern Europe - large agricultural
  potential
• However, some of these options are extremely
  undesirable!

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How much energy is agriculture using?

• 3.5 x as much as Defra is telling you!
• officially, agricultural energy use accounts for
  only 0.8 of UK energy use
• but this is only the on-farm energy use
• including the energy to produce the agrochemicals
  and animal feed, it is 2.8
• plus energy to produce imported food feed

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Agriculture today
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On-farm use of energy

• Energy is used as on-farm for
• fuel for field machinery (tractors, combine
  harvesters)
• electricity for farm operations (drying grain,
  milking and refrigerating milk, drying and
  storing potatoes)
• indoor crops fuel for heating glasshouses for
  out-of-season vegetables (tomatoes, courgettes
  peppers)
• indoor livestock electricity for heating and
  lighting livestock factory farms (pigs
  poultry)

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The hidden side of industrial agriculture
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The manufacture of industrial farm inputs

• Only 28 of energy is used on the farm, now most
  energy, 72 is used to manufacture, package and
  transport the industrial farm inputs
• fertilisers (37),
• animal feed (16),
• tractors (10)
• pesticides (8)
• plus vet drugs, glasshouse frames, plastic silo
  wrap...

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Nitrogen fertiliser

• Through fertiliser, we are turning fossil fuel
  into food
• nitrogen fertiliser the basis of industrial
  agriculture
• the single main use of energy in agriculture, 37
  
• 3 million t used each year in the UK (half
  imported)
• its manufacture produces 2.3t CO2e per t N
  fertiliser
• the raw material is fossil fuel (natural gas) AND
  its manufacture is an energy-intensive process,
• industrial agriculture is inherently reliant on
  fossil fuels

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Nitrogen fertiliser manufacture
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(No Transcript)
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Milk production - an example

• nitrogen fertiliser use applied to arable (half
  all grain is for animal feed) improved grass
• fuel use for field operations ploughing, sowing
  grass/grain seed, harvesting (eg. silage for
  dairy cattle)
• farm operations milking cattle and cooling milk
• food transport daily refrigerated milk
  collection
• food processing pasteurisation, homogenisation
• food packaging milk bottles and cartons

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How do the sectors compare?
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Peak Oil Gas rising energy prices
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Peak Oil - impact on the economy

• Rising energy prices and shrinking supplies
  imply
• severe, indefinite recession high costs, low
  incomes
• widespread loss of convenient Western
  lifestyles
• food affordability problems for poorer groups
  (elderly, urban drought-prone regions of
  developing world)
• less government resources for fundamental
  problems
• reduced sales of more costly foods (meat,
  organic?)
• --gt pressure for government farm/ food price
  support

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Changing balance in food economy

• On the other hand, it will mean rising cost of
• nitrogen fertiliser vs. clover use of organic
  matter
• heated indoor farming vs. free-range, seasonal
• food transport, imports vs. local food economies
• food processing and packaging vs. whole foods
• --gt industrial systems should grow less
  competitive vs. local, organic, seasonal,
  wholefood and more veg ??

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Organic farming energy efficiency

• Sector Non-organic energy use, GJ/t
  Organic energy use
• Carrots 0.6 25 less
• Cabbage 0.9 72 less
• Leeks 1.0 58 less
• Onion 1.3 16 less
• Potatoes 1.5 14 more
• Bread wheat 2.4 16 less
• Milk 2.6 28 less
• Oilseed rape 4.9 3 more
• Eggs 13.7 10 more
• Poultry meat 15.2 11 more
• Pigmeat 22.0 35 less
• Sheep 25.0 57 less
• Beef 26.5 41 less
• AVERAGE (weighted by annual production of each
  sector, exc. tomatoes) 26 less

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There are many myths ...

• There may be no energy available - no, annual
  reduction (eg. 0.6/yr in UK)
• Imported food may become unavailable - no, not to
  rich countries/companies
• Local food does not reduce energy - only
  out-of-season glasshouse
• Organic cant feed the world - not true, yields
  are actually similar to much higher in most of
  world and, importantly, more drought resistant
• GM crops will increase yields - no, a cumbersome
  long-shot gene-by-gene and crop-by-crop approach
  (cf. Improved farming systems)
• Agricultural crops should be use to produce
  energy crops - no, food!
• Reduced soil tillage is a solution - no, it
  releases nitrous oxide
• AD of animal slurry - ?? But a product of
  energy-intensive livestock systems
• Peak Oil is Armageddon - crisis for some but
  also an opportunity

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What can we do?

• What solutions will address Peak Oil and
  alsoother key threats?
• organic farming (less energy, more drought
  resistant)
• seasonal food (less energy, local economy,
  healthier)
• whole food (less energy, much healthier)
• less meat (less energy methane, healthier)
• local food economies (less transport energy,
  self-sufficiency)
• But, no to
• biofuel policy support, cloning (will promote
  epidemics) and industrialisation of developing
  country agriculture.

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The End

• Thanks to those who provided the photographs