Nelson B' Heller, PhD

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View from the Catbird Seat
Presented By Nelson B. Heller, PhD Anne
Wujcik The Heller Reports, a QED Co. September
16, 2008
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• Past Lessons Future Opportunities
• Anne Wujcik
• A Glimpse of the Next 20 Years
• Nelson Heller

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View from the Catbird Seat Past Lessons Future
Opportunities
Presented By Anne Wujcik The Heller Reports, a
QED Company September 16, 2008
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Weve been at this for a while
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Right Timing

• Oregon Trail for teletype/mainframes (1971)
• Apple II, Commodore PET, TRS 80
• California CUE begins (1977)
• Papert working on child appropriate computing
• Classroom Computer News, Electronic Learning
• TSP, Sunburst, TLC, Davidson, ESC
• Search Series, Bank Street Writer, Writing to
  Read
• Reader Rabbit, Math Blaster, Carmen San Diego
• PageMaker, Windows I.0, HyperCard
• Hands on Science videodisc, Channel One
• 2 million microcomputers installed in K-12

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Not quite as long for Catbird
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Remember when?
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Todays Take

• Hardware The Network
• Software Digital Content
• Managed MANAGED
• Individualized Personalized

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Hardware Then

• Once a matter of installed base, OS, RAM,
  peripherals
• Hardware limitations
• Significant legacy problems
• Access a real barrier
• 11 a distant glimmer

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The Network Now

• IB specs less of an issue
• ASP, SaaS, networks apps
• Still some legacy problems
• Access still a barrier
• 11 a real possibility

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One-to-One

• Nods to Maine, Seymour Papert, Negroponte
• Real contenders in HP Mini-Note, ASUS eee PC,
  Intel Classmate, Acer Aspire, Dell
• General Specs
• 7-inch (800x480) or 8.9-inch (1024600) display
• Intel Atom or Celeron CPU
• 512 or 1024 MB of RAM
• Linux or Windows XP
• 4, 8, or 16 GB of SSD storage
• 3- or 6-cell Lithium-ion battery
• Wi-Fi

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Contenders

• HP Mini-Note
• eee PC
• OPLC XO
• Classmate
• 2go PC

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Established Players

• Fourier Nova5000
• AlphaSmart Dana
  
• 
  

StudyMate
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And lest we forget

• DreamWriter
• iBook
• eMate 300

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Challenges

• Bandwidth
• Balancing function/price
• Managing expectations
• Allowing student-owned devices

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Software Then

• Drill practice dressed up as games
• Home-school crossover
• ILS
• Productivity tools
• Multimedia tools
• Format wars
• Enduring titles

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Digital Content Now

• Real gaming coming into play
• ILS has morphed
• Productivity tools still popular
• Assessment a must
• Content creation tools
• Web 2.0
• Interest in mixing and matching

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Management Then

• Simple reporting of scores/time on task
• Check list item
• Too much or too little
• Hampered at deep-level by lack of
  interoperability
• No compelling need outside ILS

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LMS and More Now

• Need for multiple data points
• Dashboards and other tools to help extract
  meaning
• Much improved pass through of information
• Reporting to multiple audiences
• Goal of one-stop shop
• Accountability driven

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Individualization Then

• Technology makes the goal of individualization
  reachable
• Supports differentiation
• Data allows for more precise grouping and skills
  targeting
• Assessment ? prescription

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Personalization Now

• Shifts the locus of control to the student
• Students direct their own learning
• Supported with data, portfolios, meaningful
  learning plans, relevant curriculum
• Includes community membership and opportunity to
  develop and practice leadership
• Requires systemic and cultural change

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View from the Catbird Seat A Glimpse of the Next
20 Years
Presented By Nelson B. Heller, PhD The Heller
Reports, a QED Co. September 16, 2008
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Tomorrows Big Ideas

• Digital Mobility
• Distance Learning
• Platform wars next generation portals
• OS/Web 2.0 business models
• Energy and Climate

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Digital mobility, 1989
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and today
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Kindle e-Book Reader
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Kindle Smart and Wireless

• Free EV-DO connectivity
• 1-click wireless purchasing
• 200-600 book capacity
• Newspapers, blogs, web, search
• Dictionary, notes, bookmarks, clippings, search
• Low power consumption

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E-Ink/ePaper Display Technology
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Is Kindle lt-gt books as iPod lt-gt media?

• Significant but not explosive sales
• Bezos keynote at Book Expo America
• But its not (yet)
• Color
• Very interactive
• a Netbook

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Distance Learning lt-gt Online Learning

• US K-12 market trends
• Accelerating internationally
• US K-12 acquisition flurry
• Market drivers
• Blended/Hybrid Learning
• implications

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K-12 DL/OL Insight
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US K-12 DL/OL

• 50 mil/yr, growing at 30
• 42 states w significant OL pgms
• 26 state-wide/state-led VS
• 2014 10 HS courses OL
• 2019 50 HS courses OL
• 72 of DL districts expanding OL in coming year

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Accelerating internationally

• South Korea
• European Union
• Mexico
• Singapore
• India
• China

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UK-China Deal
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US K-12 acquisition flurry

• GlobalScholar.com (Knowledge Universe/Ignition
  Partners)
• Insight Schools (Apollo Group/U of Phoenix)
• Advanced Academics (DeVry)
• U of Miami HS (Kaplan)
• eCollege/eClassroom (Pearson)
• Penn Foster (The Wright Group)

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K-12 Market drivers
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Why bother?

• ADA, counter-recessionary
• Credit recovery eclipsing AP
• Legislators/public motivated
• "Real estate leverage and scalability
• Efficiency/Effectiveness

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Blended/Hybrid Learning ? Cinderella?

• Digital classrooms in B/M facilities
• Mainstream not alternative -opportunity
• Flexnet, "the online education with class (U of
  Phoenix)

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implications for the K-12 market

• Books ? digital resources
• Learning module structure
• LMS/CMS
• Not just anytime, anywhere its any way too
• Content aggregation no longer viable business
  model

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Hurdles

• Teachers and Unions
• Shortage of qualified instructors
• ADA funding competition
• Bandwidth
• Locally authored curricula
• Exam proctoring

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Platform wars next generation web portals

• Your future home
• Escalating capabilities spectrum
• Growing list of players
• Veterans
• Newbies
• Business implications

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Google Chrome blurring Web/Local boundary
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Desktop Web App Shortcuts
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Google Docs Spreadsheet App
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Platform Capabilities Spectrum

• Single sign-on and user authentication
• SaaS or local
• Collaboration, communication, social networking
• Content archives, lockers, e-portfolios
• Rich multimedia

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Capabilities - more

• Scheduling
• Courseware authoring
• Assessment
• Off-line functionality
• Portable desktops
• Students, educators, parents
• API friendly
• Business terms

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Veteran players

• Blackboard
• Desire2Learn
• Angel Learning
• eClassroom
• LearningStation
• Moodle
• Sakai

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Blackboard School Central
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Newbies

• Follett Digital Classroom
• IQ-ity
• Agilix's GoCourse
• Etech's Studywiz Spark
• VIP Tone
• Editure's MySuite
• Drupal

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VIP Tones EduTone Xchange
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Platform wars business implications

• Compatibility
• Pedagogy
• Software architecture
• Business models
• Mixnmatch
• Platform intermediation
• Support
• Auditing

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OS/Web 2.0 business models

• Open Content Failure to Thrive?
• NROC Nat'l Repository of Online Courses (MITE)
• Open API opportunities Facebook
• EdNET's LinkedIn Social Network

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Open Content Failure to Thrive?

• Quality
• Coverage
• Standardization
• Alignment
• Marketing/sales
• Customer service, support
• PD

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Monterey Institute for Technology and Education
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National Repository of Online Courses (NROC)

• Open Educational Resource (OER)
• Courses contributed by academic institutions
• Editorial investment
• Income from Institutions
• Two parallel value propositions

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Educator Exchanges
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TeachersPayTeachers.comActivity Growth
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Open API opportunities

• Facebook partners
• Cramster.com
• Blackboard.com
• Scholastic

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Facebook
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Cramster.com/Fb
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Blackboard.com/Fb
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Bb sync Fb User Posts
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EdNET's LinkedIn Social Network
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EdNET Social Network on LinkedIn
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What does Nelson Heller look like?
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People You May Know
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Energy and Climate Business opportunities
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Green is the new gold
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Finding Opportunities

• Virtualization
• Cloud Computing
• Stressed School Budgets
• 21st Century Skills, STEM
• Sustainability
• HESA Federal Funding

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Thanks

• The last 20 years have been a privilege, a gift
• What we do affects us, our children, their
  children
• The next 20 years are crucial -- and promising
  grow the gift

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Contact Info

• Nelson B. Heller, PhD
• President, The Heller Reports, a QED Company
• 858-720-1616
• nelson_at_HellerReports.com
• Anne Wujcik
• Managing Editor and Research Principal
• The Heller Reports/QED
• [phone]
• anne_at_HellerReports.com
• http//HellerReports.com