Adaptive Management MRG ESA Collaborative Program

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Adaptive Management MRG ESA Collaborative
ProgramSteps to a New/Amended BA/BO for the
Middle Rio Grande

• Part 1 - presented by
• Valda Terauds, CGWP
• U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

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Steps in Adaptive Management

1. Problem definition
2. Determination of ecosystem management goals and
   objectives
3. Determination of the ecosystem baseline
4. Development of conceptual models
5. Selecting future restoration or management
   actions
6. Implementing actions
7. Monitoring and ecosystem response
8. Evaluation of actions with proposals for
   modification

Identify the needs
Evaluate results
Design/adjust a plan of action
Implement the plan
Monitor the outcome
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Step 1 Problem Definition

• Current BO Not Hydrologically Sustainable
• What will native RG flows support?
• How far will 8,000 AFY Supplemental Water go?

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Native Flows and BO Targets

• Water demands to meet 2003 BO not sustainable
• Historic hydrologic variability
• Native Otowi flows alone cannot reliably meet BO
  targets
• (ISC 2004 evaluation for WAMS Workgroup)
• Climate change
• Basin overappropriation
• Population/demand growth

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Supplemental Water Sources

• Historic sources SJC project leases emergency
  agreements with New Mexico (relinquish Compact
  credits)
• Reclamation is limited by legislation to leases
  from willing parties
• SJC project water contractor usage increasing
• Municipal diversion projects coming on line
  (Albuquerque, Santa Fe, Espanola)
• Future supplemental water leases 8,000 AFY
• Emergency water agreements are not sustainable
  for long-term planning

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Historic Supplemental Water Usage
(1997-2006)7,780 (2005) 202,269 (2000) AFY
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Estimated Historical Year Minnow BO Demand
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Estimated Supplemental Water Demands(MRGESA
Collaborative Program-former WAMS Estimates)
2003 BO Condition Estimated Demand
Article VII Year 27,000 to 97,000 ac-ft
DRY (non Article VII) 53,000 to 66,000 ac-ft
AVERAGE 32,000 to 42,000 ac-ft
WET 21,000 to 30,000 ac-ft
Actual 2003 BO Usage (Article VII) 7,780 to
46,781 AFY Future Supplemental Water available
8,000 AFY
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Supplemental Water 2003 BO
Supplemental water use for 2003 BO (2003-2006)
7,780 to 46,781 AFY all under Dry Year
designations due to Article VII restrictions
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How is Supplemental Water Used?

• Support minnow spawn
• Keep river wet to June 15
• Managed recession after June 15 less than 8
  miles/day drying
• Meet late season BO flow targets

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Average Monthly Supplemental Water Use2003 BO
Average Use (2003-2006) 24,144 AFY
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MRGESA Collaborative Program August 2006 Workshop

• Goal Explore stakeholder ideas concepts to
  develop a long-term sustainable, stable BO
• Constraint 8,000 AFY Supplemental Water
• Concepts
• Add Critically Dry Year to BO (Concept A)
• Maintain Quality Reach below Isleta (Concept B)
• Adaptive Management per Hydrologic Biologic
  Conditions (Concept C)

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Concept A B Modeling Results-Dry Sequence
Question Assuming 50,000 acre-feet of storage
water was available initially and 8,000 acre-feet
each year thereafter, when would the storage
water be exhausted?
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Concept A B Low Flow Analysis Results
Number of Days Flow is Less Than 100 cfs in Ten
Years (average/dry sequence)
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SWM-URGWOM Unlimited Supply Modeling Wet,
Dry-Average, Dry Decades
Reservoir Storage to Meet BO Needs 90,000 AF
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MRGESA Collaborative Program December 2006
Workshop

• Results of Analyses Concepts A B
• Neither concept provides significant water
  savings over current BO
• Both concepts fail BO targets when Otowi flows
  fall below 500 KAF
• 8,000 AFY supplemental water supplies exhausted
  after single 500KAF flow year most future
  simulation years fail BO targets
• Low flow days are almost the same for current BO
  and Concepts A B

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MRGESA Collaborative Program December 2006
Workshop Concept C Adaptive Management

• Natural flows, MRGCD deliveries, pumping, and
  some supplemental water maintain designated
  reaches under normal conditions.
• Some supplemental water is banked for drier years
  or to enhance wetter years.
• Adaptive management principles are applied to
  allocation of supplemental water

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Current AOP
Forecast
High Average Extreme
Snowpack Projected Runoff Timing
Concept C AOP
Species Status
Improving Stable Declining
RGSM Population, Recruitment, Distribution SWFL
Population, Reproductive Success, Distribution
Ecosystem Status
Channel Conditions, Restoration Needs,
Groundwater Levels, Wetlands Health
Improving Stable Declining
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Path to Amended/New BA/BO

• Water managers and stakeholders varying levels
  of urgency to move to a sustainable BO
• BA requires new action Define Concept C
• New action needs to show demonstrable change in
  water use and expected species response
• Agency and stakeholder contributions to the
  action
• New action BA and resulting BO need to be legally
  defensible
• Action regulatory agencies need more
  information
• Hydrologic Biologic flexibilities
• Implementing Adaptive Management

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Working the Adaptive Management Steps

• Determination of ecosystem management goals and
  objectives
• Work within 8,000 AFY Supplemental Water
  constraint
• Provide baseline in critically dry times with
  enhanced ecosystem support in wetter conditions
• Determination of the ecosystem baseline
• Identify critical water needs refugia for
  ecosystem species
• Development of conceptual models
• Identify questions/hypotheses to be
  answered/tested
• Selecting future restoration or management
  actions
• Identify current year priorities for testing
• Implementing actions
• 2007 Experimental Activities Program
• Monitoring and ecosystem response
• In progress preliminary results

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Questions for Concept C

• 1) What are minimum biological water needs during
  critically dry times?
• 2) What refugial options do the species have when
  there is inadequate water supply?
• 3) What are long-term recurrence intervals for
  certain flows that maintain long-term population
  and ecosystem viability?

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2007 Focus Areas

• Minimize the use of existing Supplemental Water
  supplies
• Use native Rio Grande flows to support silvery
  minnow spawn
• Closely coordinate recession with rescue
  activities
• Better understand surface water, bank storage,
  groundwater interaction
• Identify characteristics of in-stream habitats
  during periods of drying (focus on Isleta Reach)
• Evaluate pools that form during drying and
  monitor physical, chemical, and silvery minnow
  usage/health
• Evaluate general water quality characteristics
  and flows associated with wasteways and outfalls
  in the Isleta reach
• Population Viability Habitat Analysis Silvery
  Minnow
• What are key lifestage and habitat features that
  are most significant in contributing to
  population health and robustness

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2007 Experimental Activities

• Ways to stretch/manage the spring hydrograph
• Evaluate continuous flow targets based on spawn
  monitoring
• Active management of river recession
• Monitored in-stream refugia
• Wetted reach and river drying monitoring
• Diurnal monitoring of the wetted front, water
  quality and fish stress
• Wasteway/outfall monitoring
• Bank storage and groundwater interactions
• Population viability and habitat analysis

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Historic Frequency Spawning
Overbanking Flows
Flows gt3,000 cfs gt 7 days 21/32 yrs
Flows gt5,000 cfs gt 5 days 11/32 yrs
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Sample Activity Description
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Preliminary 2007 DataWays to Stretch/Manage
Spring Hydrograph

• Cochiti Deviations (Corps Cochiti
  Pueblo)
• Use native Rio Grande flows to meet silvery
  minnow spawning recruitment needs
• Stored 9,674 AF from May 4 to June 9
• Spawning release to test correlation between
  gt3,000 cfs for 7 to 10 days and RGSM spawn
  recruitment (Dudley, et. al., 2006)
• Stored water released by June 15

RESULT Spawning Flow Target Achieved, 0 AF
Supplemental Water Used
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Cochiti Inflow / Release
Deviation Storage Release Period
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Sample Activity Description
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Preliminary 2007 Data In-Stream Refugia
Scientific Name Common Name Total Collected Percent Composition
1 Carpiodes carpio river carpsucker 281 8.5
2 Cyprinella lutrensis red shiner 527 16.0
3 Cyprinus carpio common carp 77 2.3
4 Dorosoma cepedianum gizzard shad 45 1.4
5 Gambusia affinis western mosquitofish 242 7.4
6 Hybognathus amarus Rio Grande silvery minnow 121 3.7
7 Ictalurus furcatus blue catfish 37 1.1
8 Ictalurus punctatus channel catfish 275 8.4
9 Larvae sp Larvae sp 1,377 41.9
10 Micropterus dolomieu smallmouth bass 1 0.0
11 Micropterus salmoides salmoides northern largemouth bass 3 0.1
12 Percina macrolepida bigscale logperch 4 0.1
13 Pimephales promelas fathead minnow 59 1.8
14 Platygobio gracilis flathead chub 43 1.3
15 Pylodictis olivaris flathead catfish 4 0.1
16 Unknown Unknown 194 5.9
Health Symptoms Health Symptoms Health Symptoms Health Symptoms Health Symptoms Health Symptoms Health Symptoms Health Symptoms
Species Healthy Dead Fungus Lernia Hemorrhagic Lesions Anemia Signs of Predation Multiple Symptoms
Cyprinella lutrensis (red shiner) 506 3 0 13 5 0 0 0
Hybognathus amarus 81 8 0 1 30 0 0 1
Pimephales promelas (fathead minnow) 41 1 5 6 6 0 0 0
Platygobio gracilis (flathead chub) 30 0 4 1 8 0 0 0
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Preliminary 2007 DataWasteway Outfall
Monitoring
Sabinal Drain
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RGSM PVA Workshop

• Held Sept. 12 13, 2007 _at_ FWS
• Develop life history model for RGSM
• Preliminary accomplishments
• Detailed discussion consensus for values used
  for model inputs
• Additional discussion needed metapopulation,
  carrying capacity, etc.
• PVA Session 2 October 9, 2007 _at_ FWS
• PVHA to be scheduled by end of 2007 address key
  habitat components with broader group of
  stakeholders
• Desired Outcomes
• Guide potential management actions for RGSM by
  lifestage and critical habitat component(s)
• Predictive model used to evaluate management
  actions offering sensitivity analyses
  probability assessment of impact to RGSM
  demographic trajectory

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Next Steps

• Evaluate 2007 Experimental Activities Reports
  (due Dec 31)
• What worked, what did not, why?
• New/modified questions
• Agency Stakeholder contributions to action
  defined
• Decision February 2008 Pursue New or Amended
  BA/BO by March 2009 or additional year of
  activities and BA/BO in March 2010?
• 2008 experimental activity design
• Procurement (April 2008)
• Implementation (May 2008)

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Lessons Learned (to Date)

• Creating an atmosphere among participants to
  design and execute experiments while making it
  safe to fail is difficult
• Stay Tuned - we are a work in progress!

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Unanswered, Modified, New Questions

• 2007 summer river conditions did not create
  long-standing isolated pools to answer extended
  period water quality, fish usage, fish health
  questions
• Multi-year habitat usage?
• Water wheeling/local recharge opportunities
  through MRG project?
• SWFL, riparian ecosystem needs?
• A multitude of other questions.yours?