GOOS Regional Forum

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National Presentation Japan Masa Kamachi Japan
Met. Agency/ Met. Res. Inst. Toshiyuki
Awaji Kyoto University
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Japan GODAE partners
Overview of National Capabilities developed
during GODAE Future Plan
National capabilities developed during GoDAE
ver. 2008/05/31
Group Systems name method Kyoto Univ. Japan Marine Science Foundation KU-JMSF 4DVAR Jamstec/Frontier (FRCGC) Kyoto Univ. K-7 Coupled 4DVAR Jamstec/Frontier (FRCGC) Tokyo Univ. J-COPE2 3DVAR Kyushu Univ. RIAMOM Kalman Filter Japan Fisheries Agency Fisheries Research Agency JADE FRA-JCOPE ROMS-FRA Kalman Filter, Oi, 3DVAR JMA MRI COMPASS-K MOVE/MRI.COM-WNP (JMA - operation MRI - research.) 4DOI, 3DVAR JMA MRI MOVE/MRI.COM-G (JMA- operation MRI - research) 3DVAR
Aim Ocean Weather Coastal prediction Climate Pacific-reanalysis (1993-2004) Model improvement. 90s ElNino Ocean Weather Variability Ppredictability of Kuroshio Ocean Weather Japan Sea Predictability Oil spill Jelly fish Ocean Weather in the Western North Pacific Predictability Jelly fish Ocean Weather Kuroshio, Oyashio, Western North Pacific Variability Predictability Nowcasting-Forecasting of ocean state, oil spill, sea ice Reanalysis (1985-2007) Japan GODAE server Climate El Nino variability Initial Condition for CGCM for El Nino seasonal forecating Reanalysis (1949-2007)
Future Plan Coastal process Environmental Pollution detection Biogeochemical process ecosystem OSSE ElNino pediction Coupled assimilation and Decadal prediction Coastal process Wind-wave interaction Biogeochemical process Air-sea interaction Coastal phenomena Biogeochemical process Ecosystem Coastal prediction of physical and ecological fields OSE/OSSE/sensitivity/SV Sea-ice prediction Wind-wave interaction 4DVAR Coastal disaster prevention (MOVE-Cst) Biogeochemical process OSE/OSSE/sensitivity Indian Ocean variability Seasonal forecast Coupled assimilation (MOVE-C)
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3. Applications
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Best Demonstration COMPASS-K (Former
Operational Ocean Assimilation/Prediction System
in Japan Meteorological Agency) Success of
60-day Prediction of the 2004 Kuroshio Large
Meander
Assim/initial state (2004/05/09)
Velocity field
Forecast (2004/06/30)
JMA Japan-GODAE SERVER http//godae.kishou.go.jp/

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MOVE/MRI.COM-WNP reanalysis
Water Mass Comparison with Obs.
? Observation ? MOVE/MRI.COM-WNP Mean value in
1993 to 2005 Mean along each line (same obs.
point, depth, period) Bias in depth, density (T
S) Model bias zgt800m in Japan Sea (PM)
Matsumoto et al., 2008
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Prediction Experiment of Oil Spill(1997/01/02)
TOPEX/POSEIDON
MOVE/MRI.COM
COMPASS-K
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case study 1 (2004 1/25)?
Ice in Abashiri
CNTL no ice
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Coupled Data Assimilation improved state
estimation and prediction of ENSO
K-7 results
The long-term ocean reanalysis dataset reproduces
the climate variations, e.g., 1986/1987 and
1997/1998 El Nino including subsurface processes.
The RMSE of the estimated field is reduced by 1/2
comparing with that of simulated one.
NINO3.4 anomaly correlation scores
betweenobservation and forecast as function of
lead time
Sea surface temperature in Jan1997. (top left)
simulation, (top right) observation, (bottom)
assimilation
time
Initialized by coupled data assimilation
Initialized by Oceanic data assimilation
imply capability of 1.5-year lead prediction of
ENSO
Persistent
The ensemble forecast from the optimized initial
condition demonstrates much better prediction
almost up to 1.5-year forecast than earlier
results.
western equatorial
eastern equatorial
Time evolution of heat content anomaly during the
1997/1998 El Nino period with realistic eastward
propagation of Kelvin wave
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Sensitivity experiment of recently-observed NP
bottom-layer warming
Fukasawa et al.,2004???????????
P01 (47N 1999 - 1985)
P02 (30N 2004 - 1994)

Fukasawa et al., Nature, 2004
??4D-VAR??????????????????????????
P03(24N 2005/6 - 1985)
P10 (149E 2005 1993)
P06 (32S 2003 - 1992)
WOCE?10????????????????????????? ???????
???(0.010.003?C)???
JAMSTEC???????????????????????????????????????????
??????????????????????????????????????????????????
????????? ????????????????????????????????????????
???????(4DVAR)????????????????????????????????????
????????????????????????????????????????????????
50????????????????????????????pathway????????(????
??????????)????????????????
50?????????????????????????????????!
(Masuda et al., 2008)
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From a Temperature source at 47.5N,168.5E,5260m
---Vertical maximum---
Advectiondiffusion
Full
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Future plans 1. JMA and MRI Sea-ice
prediction, Reanalyses (global and
regional) OSE/OSSE/sensitivity analyses Ocean
prediction with 4DVAR Coastal prediction Coupled
assimilation 2. KyotoUniversity Coastal
prediction Coupling of physical biogeochemical
processes Decadal prediction
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Five systems (MOVE/MRI.COM)
Global (11 deg. 1/3tropical
region, 54 Layers) Nested-1 North
Pacific 15S-65N, 100E-75W ( 0.50.5
deg., 54 Layers) Nested-2 Western N. Pac
15N-65N, 115E-160W (0.10.1 deg., 54
Layers) Nested-3 coast/shelf sea 2km mesh,
54 layers
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Future/On-going developments in MRI
Present systems
Coupling to Atom.
Global Copled A-O Assim MOVE-C
Global Warming, SI-predictions (Global, 1
) Ocean Climate (N. Pac, 1/2) Ocean Weather
(W.N. Pac, 0.1)
Global1 /12(10km) MOVE-G2
Local weather-climate model (strong currents,
Frontal structure)
Finer resolution (x6)
Regional1 /60(2km) MOVE-Cst
Coastal ocean (Storm surge forecasting for
disaster prevention)
nesting
Coastal1 /120(1km)
Typhoon 23, in Aug 30, 2004
Regional(1/1011km) (Forecasting around Japan)
ARGO float assimilation
Forecasting of 2004 Kuroshio Large Meander