TIMES modeling of energy, emission and climate scenarios

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TIMES modeling of energy, emission and climate
scenarios
Maryse Labriet, Richard Loulou Amit Kanudia,
Kathleen Vaillancourt Group for Research in
Decision Analysis (GERAD) Montreal, Canada
International Energy Workshop 2005 Kyoto, July
5-7, 2005
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1. World multi-regional TIMES model Structure
of the model Characteristics of the base case
2. Exploring climate policies Preferred
mitigation options and costs Role of
sequestration Emission vs concentration
target 3. Conclusion and further
Outilne
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The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES)

• Linear programming technology rich model for
  representing, optimizing and analyzing the
  production, conversion, trade and end-use of
  various forms of energy
• Supply-demand partial equilibrium on energy
  markets
• Perfect foresight information 2000-2100
• Maximization of Social Surplus, while
  satisfying final demands and exogenous
  constraints (eg. CO2 limits)
• Multi-regional ? 15 linked regions AFR, AUS,
  CAN, CHI, CSA, EEU, FSU, IND, JPN, MEA, MEX, ODA,
  SKO, USA, WEU

1. TIMES modeling
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Reference Energy System (RES)
Climate module CO2CONCatm,up,loRADFORCINGTEMPat
m,lo
1. TIMES modeling
Ex veh-km driven by car, tonnes aluminum, number
apartments to heat, etc.
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Climate module
conversion CO2-eq
Non-CO2 gases exogenous forcing
1. TIMES modeling
ATM CONC (stock GtC) Linear 3 reservoirs -
Atmosphere - Biosphere ocean surface - Deep
ocean
CO2 emi (flow GtC) From TIMES (processes)
RADIATIVE FORCING (W/m2) One log equation
GLOBAL MEAN TEMP INCREASE (C) Linear 2
reservoirs - Atm ocean surface - Deep ocean
Radiative forcing sensitivity to CO2
concentration ? 4.1 W/m2 Slightly smaller in
TAR
Temperature sensitivity to CO2 concentration
from 1 to 10C?High uncertainty
Equations Adapted from Nordhaus and Boyer
(1999) Well documented Good approximation of
those obtained from more complex climate models
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TIMES

• Multinational work by members of ETSAP
• Built on the best features of MARKAL and EFOM
  (B-U energy models) new features (long term,
  variable length of time periods, vintaging of
  technologies, etc.)
• New assumptions about input data long-term
  energy services to satisfy, fossil and renewable
  resources, future technologies, specific policies
• Endogenous international trade of natural gas,
  LNG, crude oil and CO2 permits ? competitive
  markets ? quantities and prices are endogenously
  computed control of annual oil production
  quantities by OPEC, so as to approximate the oil
  production decisions of the cartel
• TIMES documentation www.etsap.org/documentation
  .asp

1. TIMES modeling
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Energy and emissions in the Base case

• Inspired by Common POLES-IMAGE (CPI) base case
• Moderate POP and GDP growth technological
  progress
• Continuing growth of primary energy use
• Gas coal become the dominant energy carriers
  after 2050 (power plants and industry sector)
• Intermediate range of emissions (IPCC-SRES)

1. TIMES modeling
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Assessment of two types of climate policies

• World emission limits 2005-2100 (noted E550)
• Emission paths as proposed by the literature
  (Innovation Modeling Comparison Project) to reach
  the long-term stabilization of atm. concentration
  at 550 ppm
• Sensitivity sequestration
• Single concentration limit in 2100 (noted C550)
• Fixed at the level obtained in E550
• NB All regions participate in a world market of
  CO2 permits (full cooperation)

2. Climate policies
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Mitigation options (E550)
Crucial role of CO2 removalSequestration Up to
79 of CO2 reduction in 2100 Terrestrial sinks
and deep saline aquifersPower plants CCGT ?
CCGT-capture ? coal-capture ? Future role of
coal in electricity generation Sensitivity
Marginal cost x 5 in 2100 wo sequestrationUncert
ainties Potentiel? Costs? Permanence? Hydro Full
potential with or without sequestrationNuclear C
ompensate for non-availabilityRenewable of CO2
sequestration
2. Climate policies
COAL

• Hydrogen productionTechnologies Higher
  production with CO2 sequestration Gas reforming
  BAU, with and wo CO2 sequestration Electrolysis
  only when CO2 sequestration not available

RNW
NUC
Substitution in end-use sectorsRes/Com/Ind Coal/G
as/Oil ? ElectricityTransport Alcohols from
biomass, efficient vehicles Electricity in cases
wo sequestration or with higher reduction
targets (450ppm)
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Emission vs concentration target (E550 vs C550)
E550 Emissions limited from 2005 to 2100.
Exogenous path. C550 CO2 concentration
limited in 2100 only. Defined by
E550. Sequestration not allowed here.
2. Climate policies
Earlier actionHigher long-term emissionsSame
final concentration Energy actionsFaster
transition from fossil to non-emitting power
plants (hydro and nuclear)Less renewable in
LTLower substitution to electricity in end-use
sectors in LT
Higher flexibility in the timing of action
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Mitigation costs (preliminary)
Results2050 19 to 70 /tCO22080 119 to 510
/tCO22100 up to gt 2000 /tCO2? due to
end-use rigidities? Reduction of
cost Concentration-oriented climate policy
(green) ? higher flexibility in the
timing Sequestration options (pink) ? replace
expensive carbon-free electricity generation
2. Climate policies
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Final remarks
New TIMES model World multi-regional,
long-term, technology rich model Climate module
(integrated assessment) Climate policy
applications Technology oriented modeling
approach becoming a necessity for representing
detailed policies Abatement costs and
cost-efficient technical options within the
energy system Different types of climate
policies (emission path, concentration bound,
tax, permits) Regional reduction efforts (not
presented here) ? evaluate burden-sharing
issues (permit allocations)
3. Conclusion
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Current developments
Regular updates Technologies, long-term
evolution of demands Non-CO2 and non-energy GHGs
(EMF-21) Calibration of CH4 and N2O Modeling
of abatement options Energy non-energy
sectors (eg. waste, manure, adipic nitric acid
industry) Evaluation of multigas climate
policies Stochastic programming (EMF-22)
Implementation and experimentation Evaluation
of climate policies under uncertain climate
sensitivity (1.5C to 4.5 C? as high as 11C?)
3. Conclusion
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Groupe d'Études et de Recherche en Analyse des
Décisions (GERAD) 3000 chemin de la Côte Sainte
Catherine Montréal (Qc), H3T 2A7, Canada Tel.
(1) [phone] ext.6033 Fax (1) (514)
340-5665 maryse.labriet_at_gerad.ca richard_at_haloa.ca

Thank you