Markus Amann International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

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Markus AmannInternational Institute for Applied
Systems Analysis

• Recent developments
• of the RAINS model

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Recent model development

• Energy emission databases
• Modelling of deposition and its effects
• Modelling of ozone and its impacts
• health
• Vegetation
• Internet version

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• Modelling of deposition and its effects

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Issues

• Source-receptor relationships for deposition
• Ecosystem-specific deposition
• Dynamic modelling

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S-R relations for RAINS

• Linearity of changes in PM due to changes in
  emissions is crucial for the mathematical design
  of RAINS
• 87 model experiments with the new EMEP model
• Response of European S/N deposition to changes
  in SO2, NOx, NH3, VOC, PPM2.5/10 emissions
• For German, Italian, Dutch, UK and European
  emissions
• 3 emission scenarios
• CLE (current legislation 2010) CAFE baseline
  for 2010
• MFR (maximum technically feasible reductions 2010
• UFR (ultimately feasible reductions) MFR/2

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Response of total S depositiondue to changes in
UK SO2 emissions
Emissions change from UFR
UK emissions change from CLE to UFR
Emissions change from CLE
UK emissions change from CLE to MFR
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Response of total S depositiondue to changes in
UK NH3 emissions
Emissions change from UFR
UK emissions change from CLE to UFR
Emissions change from CLE
UK emissions change from CLE to MFR
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Response of total S depositiondue to changes in
all UK emissions
Emissions change from UFR
UK emissions change from CLE to UFR
Emissions change from CLE
UK emissions change from CLE to MFR
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Response of total oxidised N depositiondue to
changes in UK NOx emissions
Emissions change from UFR
UK emissions change from CLE to UFR
Emissions change from CLE
UK emissions change from CLE to MFR
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Response of total oxidised N depositiondue to
changes in UK NH3 emissions
Emissions change from UFR
UK emissions change from CLE to UFR
Emissions change from CLE
UK emissions change from CLE to MFR
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Response of total oxidised N depositiondue to
changes in all UK emissions
Emissions change from UFR
UK emissions change from CLE to UFR
Emissions change from CLE
UK emissions change from CLE to MFR
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Conclusion on S-R relations

• Linear treatment (transfer matrices) seems
  sufficient
• Work together with MSC-W is underway to derive
  coefficients
• Time problem to calculate many different years

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• Eco-system specific deposition

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Ecosystem-specific deposition

• Ecosystem-specific depositionEstimates of
  unprotected ecosystems in Europe for 2010
• Harmonized land-use maps
• Meeting at IIASA in March.
• CDFs of CL will be delivered for forests, lakes,
  others.

Lagrangian model 150 km grid-average deposition New Eulerian model 50km, grid-average deposition New Eulerian model 50km, ecosystem-specific deposition
Acidification 3 15 25
Eutrophication 20 60 80
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Excess of forest critical loads
Percentage of forest areawith acid deposition
above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific
deposition, mean meteorology
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Probability of deposition exceeeding critical
loadsfor the Gothenburg 2010 ceilings, EU-15
Estimated in 1999
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• Dynamic modelling

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Five stages in dynamic acidification modelling

• Important time factors
• Damage delay time
• Recover delay time

Graph provided by Max Posch, CCE
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Use of dynamic modelling in RAINS

• Target load functions have been developed for
  IAM, specifying
• the levels of S/N deposition
• in a given year
• that lead to recovery of x of ecosystems
• within y years.
• Could be directly used in RAINS optimisation with
  x, y as policy choices.
• But
• How to upscale to ecosystems without dynamic
  estimates?
• How to reach full European coverage?
• Historic base cation deposition?

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• Ozone modelling

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Ozone modelling

• Health impact assessment
• Vegetation impacts
• Regional ozone modelling
• Linearity
• Uncertainty
• Urban ozone modelling

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• Health impacts

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Health impacts

• All epidemiological studies use daily
  maximum 8-hour mean concentrationas metric,
  often for the full year.
• Different from hourly values used for AOT
  calculations!
• Models not yet evaluated against health metric.
• WHO review Effects found below 60 ppb, no solid
  evidence on existence of threshold
• How to treat this in an integrated assessment?

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Critical question for IAM of O3

• How certain are we about health impacts below
  (natural) background levels (30-40 ppb)?
• Especially, if ozone is reduced below background
  because of (too) high NOx concentrations?
• Do we expect health benefits from reductions in
  urban O3 through increased NOx emissions -
  while total oxidants (NOx Ox) increase?

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Example implementation

• CAFE baseline energy emission projection for
  2000, 2010, 2010
• EMEP Eulerian dispersion model, regional
  background concentrations
• Mean meteorology, 1999 2003
• No adjustment of ozone levels for urban areas
  (awaiting results from City-Delta)
• RR from WHO meta study (1.003)
• Calculation for summer, no effects for winter
  assumed

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Premature deaths attributable to O3 Absolute
numbers (for 6 months), with different cut-offs
30 ppb 40 ppb 60
ppb
Provisional estimates!
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Reduction of premature deaths attributable to
O3compared to 2000, with different cut-offs
30 ppb 40 ppb 60
ppb
Provisional estimates!
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Approach recommended by TFH7

• Focus on mortality premature deaths
  attributable to ozone
• Will create bias, because morbidity not
  considered
• Do not use potential impacts of ozone below
  background to drive policy
• Use 35 ppb as cut-off
• Reflects present background concentrations
• Use of linear regressed RR will underestimate the
  effect
• Consider full year
• Use one characteristic urban concentration level

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Premature deaths attributable to O3Year 2000,
mean meteorology, cut-off30 ppb, percent of
total deaths
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• Vegetation impacts

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Concentration-based critical levels for
ozoneSource Mapping manual
Receptor Time period Critical level AOT30, ppm.h(only for IAM) Critical level AOT40, ppm.h
Agricultural crops 3 months 4 3
Horticultural crops 4 months - 5
Forest trees Growing season (6 months) 9 5
Semi-natural vegetation 3 months - 3
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Flux-based critical levels for ozoneSource
Mapping manual
Receptor Time period Critical level (AFst6)
Wheat 900 C days starting 200 C days before anthesis (flowering) 1 mmol/m2 projected sunlit leaf area
Potato 1130 C days starting at plant emergence 5 mmol/m2 projected sunlit leaf area
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Considerations for RAINS

• Critical levels for forests are most sensitive
• Use flux-based assessment for ex-post scenario
  analysis, concentrations-based CL for
  optimisation
• For trees, mapping manuals leaves a choice
  between AOT40 and AOT30
• Further analysis of advantages and disadvantages
  necessary

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Statistical indicators for AOT-based CLSource
Mapping manual
  Linear regression for birch and beech Linear regression for birch and beech Linear regression for birch and beech Linear regression for birch and beech Linear regression for birch and beech
r2 r2 p for the slope p for the slope p for the intercept slope
AOT30 AOT30 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61 lt0.01 0.63 - 0.494
AOT40 AOT40 0.62 0.62 0.62 0.62 lt0.01 0.31 - 0.732
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Source-receptor relations

• Regional scale
• Linearity?
• Confidence?
• Urban scale

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Response of ozone due to ?NOxfrom German
emissions
AOT30
AOT40
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Response of ozone due to ?VOCfrom German
emissions
AOT40
AOT30
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How much can we trust results from one model?

• Euro-Delta intercomparison of regional scale
  models
• Coordinated by JRC, IIASA, MSC-W, TNO, CONCAWE
• 5 models
• CHIMERE (F)
• EMEP
• LOTOS (NL)
• MATCH (S)
• REM (D)
• Study model responses to emission control cases
• Ensemble model

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Graphs courtesy of Kees Cuvelier and Philippe
Thunis, JRC
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Summary of model performances
AOT30 AOT40
r2 of critical level estimates
for birch, beech 0.61 0.62
Correlation coefficient of ensemble dispersion models 0.65 0.61
Correlation coefficient of the EMEP model 0.57 0.48
Variability of model results for emission control scenarios ? ??
Linearity between CLE and MFR ? ??
???
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• Urban scale

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Changes in urban ozone for further NOx
reductionCity-Delta results
AOT30
Graphs courtesy of Kees Cuvelier and Philippe
Thunis, JRC
AOT40
Population-weighted O3
Urban O3
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Changes in urban ozone for further VOC
reductionCity-Delta results
AOT30
Graphs courtesy of Kees Cuvelier and Philippe
Thunis, JRC
AOT40
Population-weighted O3
Urban O3
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Can titration be detected for long-term ozone at
urban background? Preliminary results from
City-Delta
Difference between observed urban and background
O3, annual mean O3
Graphs courtesy of Kees Cuvelier and Philippe
Thunis, JRC
NOx emission density in urban domain (t/km2)
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Next steps

• Analyze City-Delta 2 results, especially for PM
• Develop functional relationships between rural
  and urban concentrations
• Develop extension to other cities
• Implement in RAINS
• Final City-Delta workshop, fall 2004

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Internet version

• RAINS available on the Internet
• Free access at
• http//www.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/tap/RainsWeb/