The Energy Challenge

1
The Energy Challenge

• Arthur Lyon Dahl Ph.D.
• European Bahá'í Business Forum (EBBF)
• http//www.ebbf.org
• and
• International Environment Forum (IEF)
• http//www.bcca.org/ief
• March 2006

2
Overview of the challenge

• Our industrial economy was built on cheap energy
• Transportation, communications, trade,
  agriculture, heating/cooling, consumer lifestyle
  all depend on energy
• Energy demand is rising rapidly and the supply is
  shrinking
• Adaptation will be extremely expensive
• Western material civilization is unsustainable

3
Unsustainability

• Warning signs
• Energy crises
• Economic fragility
• Food insecurity
• Water shortages
• Terrorism, refugees
• Natural, economic and social disasters

4
Developing countries

• Two thirds of future growth in energy demand is
  expected to come from developed countries where
  at least 1.6 billion people are without access to
  electricity in their homes.
• Over half of people in developing countries still
  rely on biofuel, including wood, dung and
  agricultural wastes, for cooking and heating,
  most of which is burnt indoors.
• Between 10 per cent and 20 per cent of the fuel
  used in households on biomass stoves is not fully
  burnt, triggering a wide range of harmful
  air-borne pollutants.
• Globally, indoor air pollution of fine particles
  from fuels like charcoal is ranked in the top ten
  causes of mortality, causing up to 2.4 million
  premature deaths a year from respiratory problems
  and heart attacks.
• In homes burning biomass, particle levels can be
  between 300 to 3,000 microgrammes per cubic metre
  ( EU guideline 40 µg/m3).
• GEO Year Book 2006 http//www.unep.org/geo/yearboo
  k/

5
The Science of Energy

• Second Law of Thermodynamics entropy
• All resources are limited on a finite planet
• Human civilization has reached planetary limits
• Growth cannot continue indefinitely
• The human population is expected (barring
  surprises war, famine, pestilence) to reach 9
  billion in mid-century and then decline
• Planetary carrying capacity depends on numbers
  and standard of living

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The end of the fossil fuel era

• Consumption continues to grow at 1.1/yr
• At present consumption rates, reserves of oil
  will last 40 years, gas 67 years and coal 164
  years
• Published reserves can increase through new
  discoveries (declining) and new extraction
  technologies
• Other constraints are investment cost,
  environmental impact and insecurity in supply
• Massive investment in present infrastructure
  creates great resistance to change

7
Growth in oil use

• World 1.1/year
• OECD 1.3
• World less economies in transition 2.1
• Latin America 2.8
• India 5.4
• China 7.5
• From 2001-2020, world oil consumption will rise
  56, with OPEC production doubling
• Non-OPEC production has already peaked
• Oil provides 40 of world's primary energy

8
How much oil?

• Ultimate recoverable reserve 2000 Bb
• Cumulative production 980 Bb
• Reserves 827 Bb
• Yet to find 153 Bb
• Production peaks and starts to decline at half of
  recoverable resource, ca. 2008
• Post-peak production will fall at about 2.7 per
  year, dropping 75 in 30 years
• Athabaska tar sands (300Bb) and Orinoco heavy oil
  (300Bb) face severe extraction problems (and
  equal only 22 years current consumption)

9
Alternative fossil fuels

• Coal larger reserves but high mining impact,
  less energy density, high pollution and CO2
  emissions
• Gas less polluting, but reserves also limited
• Methane hydrates in ocean sediments extraction
  difficulties, potent greenhouse gas

10
Our dependence on oil

• Road transport, shipping, aviation
• Chemical feedstocks, plastics, synthetics
• Industrial production
• Agricultural fertilizers
• Mechanized agriculture
• Electricity generation
• Heating and cooling, lighting
• Town planning, suburban lifestyle
• Global trade, food distribution

11
Energy and population

• 80 of global energy comes from fossil fuels
• The world population has expanded sixfold,
  exactly in parallel with oil production
• Can the world maintain such a population without
  cheap energy?
• What will happen if it cannot?

12
Another big question

• Even if we could exploit every fossil fuel
  reserve, do we really want to?

13
The Biosphere

• Delicately balanced conditions for life created
  by life
• Complex systems and feedback mechanisms poorly
  understood
• Humanity now captures one quarter of primary
  productivity
• We lack management mechanisms at the planetary
  scale

14
Fossil fuels and CO2

• Fuel oil produces 2.9 tonnes of CO2 from burning
  1 tonne of oil equivalent (toe)
• Natural gas produces 2.1 tonnes CO2 per toe
• Coal produces 3.8 tonnes CO2 per toe

15
Greenhouse gases and climate change

• Greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane, water
  vapour, etc) trap heat in the atmosphere
• The CO2 level in the atmosphere is rising rapidly
  as we burn fossil fuels
• More heat in the atmosphere changes air
  circulation and climate
• Effects will be highly variable around the world,
  and are not easily predictable

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The latest evidence suggests that the worst
predictions may be realized

• The Gulf Stream has recently slowed by 30
• Half of the permafrost in the Arctic is expected
  to melt by 2050 and 90 before 2100
• Major parts of the Arctic Ocean were ice-free in
  2005 for the first time
• Greenland glaciers have doubled their rate of
  flow in the last two years
• The rate of sea level rise has doubled over the
  last 150 years to 2 mm per year, and melting in
  the Antarctic is expected to add a further 4mm/yr
• We may be approaching a tipping point where
  runaway climate change would be catastrophic

17
Controlling greenhouse gases?

• UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (Rio,
  1992)
• Kyoto Protocol on reduction of greenhouse gases
  return emissions to 1990 levels by 2012
• CO2 emissions rose 4.5 in 2004 to 27.5 b tonnes,
  26 higher than 1990
• China and India have doubled CO2 production
  since 1990, US 20, Australia 40
• US released 5.8, China 4.5, Europe 3.3, India 1.1
  billion tonnes of CO2 in 2004

18
The Nuclear Option?

• Research costs and development highly subsidized,
  including by military uses
• High energy input in construction and fuel
  fabrication, not carbon free
• Risks of accidents uninsurable
• Decommissioning costs not included
• UK unable to privatize its nuclear industry
• Waste disposal costs imposed on future
  generations
• No safe long-term disposal yet found
• Fusion still "40 years" off

19
New Energy Technologies

• Hydrogen
• Fuel cells
• Metal nano-fuels
• still require a source of energy, fossil or
  renewable

20
The economics of energy

• Hidden subsidies are frequent
• Price instabilities produce windfall profits
• Reserve estimates are notoriously unreliable
• The market is politically manipulated
• As with any addiction, users will pay anything to
  maintain their habit

21
Investment impact

• Carbon Disclosure Project
• Representing a group of 211 investors with 31
  trillion of assets under management, i.e more
  than 50 of the worlds invested assets, the
  Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) has invited 1,800
  companies worldwide to disclose
• of investment-relevant information concerning
  their greenhouse gas emissions. The fourth
  iteration of such a request, this years round
  will involve over twice as many companies as the
  previous rounds.
• See http//www.cdproject.net

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Investment in developing countries

• The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of the
  Kyoto Protocol will make available over 3bn of
  carbon funds currently managed by public and
  private bodies for investment in projects that
  cut emissions of greenhouse gases. This new
  source of finance for clean energy projects in
  Africa and other developing countries is putting
  them firmly back on the map for clean energy and
  forestry project finance.
• See Carbon finance for Africa - An Investors'
  Guide
• http//www.africapractice.com/case.html

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The politics of fossil fuels

• Fossil fuel reserves are concentrated in a few
  regions, accentuating the unjust distribution of
  wealth
• The struggle to control reserves and access is a
  major source of conflict
• Since access to energy is a vital national
  interest, these problems will increase as
  supplies diminish
• Only global management assuring just distribution
  of energy resources can resolve this situation

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Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and
Climate

• US, Australia, Japan, South Korea, India, China,
  July 2005 (45 of world population)
• Consume 45 of world energy, produce 52 of CO2,
  with both expected to double by 2025
• Agreement to develop and share cleaner, more
  efficient technologies to reduce greenhouse gas
  emissions and provide secure energy supplies
• Focus on carbon sequestration
• Pact among major coal producing/consuming
  countries (China plans 560 new coal-fired plants,
  India 213)
• 25 of global CO2 emissions come from coal-fired
  power stations

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How do we go back to life without fossil fuels?

• Or can we go forward toward a new integrated
  approach to energy capture and efficient use?
• SOLAR ENERGY
• The only long-term, large-scale
• energy source

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Bio-fuels

• Wood
• Dung, animal wastes
• Ethanol
• Biodiesel
• Coconut, palm, rapeseed oils
• Bagass
• Biogas
• Chicken shit
• but their production will compete with food
  production and other land uses

27
Technologies for solar energy capture

• Photovoltaic
• Solar water heaters
• Parabolic reflectors (need steering)
• Tubular captors with reflectors
• Greenhouse effect
• Passive solar heating in buildings

28
Indirect solar power

• Water hydroelectric power is widely used where
  resources permit
• Wind commercially viable as part of a mix of
  energy sources
• Tides selected locations
• Waves engineering challenges
• OTEC ocean thermal energy conversion
• Chimney effect (air thermal gradients)

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Energy efficiency

• Reduce the resources and energy necessary to
  maintain our standard of living
• Factor 4 (von Weizsäcker, Lovins et Lovins, 1997.
  Factor four Doubling wealth halving resource
  use. Earthscan, London)
• Factor 10
• Targets adopted by OECD
• Examples more efficient appliances, reduce heat
  loss from buildings, public transport

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Energy Wastage in the Global Electricity Sector
(2002) Total Electricity Generation Worldwide
(TWh)   (source
International Energy Agency 2002) World
Alliance for Decentralized Energy (WADE)
http//www.localpower.org
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Centralized versus decentralized

• The Western economic system has encouraged
  centralized energy systems (large generating
  stations, large dams, large refineries, extensive
  power grids)
• Transmission produces large losses
• Small-scale systems close to users do not
  interest large corporations
• Solar energy and most renewables are inherently
  decentralized
• The economic system biases technology choice

32
Some strategies

• Iceland hydrogen economy
• Sweden plan for oil-free economy within 15
  years
• In Geneva 85 of electricity is from renewable
  sources
• Hawaii Energy for Tomorrow programme (efficiency,
  renewables, biofuels, hydrogen technology,
  consumer incentives)

33
A US strategy to stabilize CO2 emissionsPacala,
Stephen and Robert Socolow (2004), Science 305968

• 15 proven technologies, including
• Carbon sequestration
• Better energy efficiency in buildings
• Doubling fuel efficiency of cars
• Wind turbines
• Clean coal technologies
• 700 gigawatts of nuclear power
• to stabilize CO2 at today's level by 2054

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World Business Council for Sustainable Development

• Key areas for action
• Energy efficiency first priority
• Energy mix promote the use of all non-emitting
  technologies, including nuclear energy
• Carbon capture and storage bridge from fossil
  fuels to new energy systems
• Enabling energy technology research and
  development
• Support to developing countries technology
  transfer to leap-frog to modern energy
  technologies
• http//www.wbcsd.org

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World Business Council for Sustainable Development

• PROJECTS AND REPORTS
• The GHG Protocol A Corporate Accounting and
  Reporting Standard
• Clean Development Mechanism and the new GHG
  Protocol for Project Accounting
• Sector projects
• Electricity Utilities
• Sustainable Forest Products Initiative
• Sustainable Cement Initiative
• Mobility
• Energy Efficiency in Buildings
• http//www.wbcsd.org

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World Business Council for Sustainable Development

• Long term policy framework
• Predictability
• Efficiency-based objectives on climate change,
  energy, economic development and trade
• Wide participation by governments with fairness,
  equity and common but differentiated
  responsibilities
• Use of market-based mechanisms and instruments
  long-term value for carbon
• Engaging the capital markets
• Changing consumer behaviour
• http//www.wbcsd.org

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Barriers to change

• the biggest obstacles to the take up of
  technologies such as renewable
• sources of energy and "clean coal" lie in vested
  interests, cultural barriers to change and simple
  lack of awareness.
• - Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change, UK
  Meteorological Office -
• from http//www.unepfi.org/ebulletin

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Ways forward

• Harness all available sources of energy on the
  surface of the planet
• Reduce environmental impact to sustainable limits
• Accelerate the transition to reduce the shock
• Create global governance mechanisms to manage
  this global challenge
• Share the cost, effort and benefits globally with
  equity and justice

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Building a sustainable energy future is a major
challenge for the present generation

• Thank you