Poverty Mapping Efforts in Indonesia

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Poverty Mapping Effortsin Indonesia
Asep Suryahadi The SMERU Research
Institute www.smeru.or.id
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Outline of Presentation

• I. Past Efforts to Map Poverty
• II. New Poverty Mapping Initiative
• III. Uses of Poverty Maps
• IV. Key Problems and Challenges
• V. Recommendations

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I. Past Efforts to Map Poverty

• Poverty reduction was never stated as development
  goal until 1994
• In Pelita VI, four major poverty reduction
  programs were launched
• Two major efforts to map poverty were initiated
• - IDT Program
• - Family Welfare Development Program

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IDT Program

• Presidential Instruction on Disadvantaged
  Villages
• Targeting approach by classifying villages into
  poor (backward) and non-poor
• The classification was based on Podes (Village
  Potential) database
• Distribution of poor villages was strikingly
  different from distribution of poor people

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Family Welfare Program

• Managed by Family Planning Agency (BKKBN)
• Target households ? 5 welfare status KPS, KS I,
  KS II, KS III, KS III
• During crisis, used for targeting of social
  safety net programs
• Contributed to mistargeting of program
  beneficiaries

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Poverty Census

• To assess poverty status of all households ? more
  suitable for program targeting
• Too expensive ? 3 Provinces Jakarta, East Java,
  South Kalimantan
• Conducted simultaneously with Population Census
  2000
• Used indicators to determine poverty status

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Poverty Statistics

• Based on Consumption Module of SUSENAS, 3 yearly
  since 1976
• Representative at province-urban/rural
• Regional autonomy requires district level poverty
  statistics ? based on Core SUSENAS
• - aggregate consumption questionaire
• - no quantity and price information

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II. New Poverty Mapping Initiative

• A new method combining detailed information from
  household survey and complete coverage of
  population census ? simulated-welfare mapping
• Two stages
• - using survey data, estimate correlation
  pattern
• - using census data, used the estimated pattern
  to predict consumption

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Simulated Welfare Mapping Method
Econometrics
Census
For census household predict per capita
expenditure and error margin
Survey
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The Pilot Study

• The new poverty mapping method was introduced in
  a seminar at BPS in June 2001
• BPS, SMERU, and World Bank collaborate in an
  effort to apply the method
• Two phases
• - Pilot study of 3 Provinces East
  Kalimantan, Jakarta, East Java
• - Application to the rest of provinces

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Data Sources

• Consumption Module SUSENAS 1999
• Core SUSENAS 1999
• Population Census 2000
• Podes 1999

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Implementation Procedure

• 1. Matching variables in survey and census
• 2. Selecting explanatory variables
• 3. Estimating the model
• 4. Simulations on census data
• 5. Calculation of poverty indicators

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Results Successful Replication
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Poverty Maps of East Kalimantan
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The Importance of Error Margin
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Precision of the Estimates
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Standard Error Population Size
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III. Uses of Poverty Map

• Capturing heterogeneity of poverty
• Improving targeting of interventions
• Articulating policy objectives
• Communicating distribution of welfare
• Evaluating impact of programs
• Incorporation into GIS

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Benefit Relative to Other Methods

• Higher resolution poverty maps
• Based on direct measures of welfare
• Provide measure of precision
• Use existing data

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Promotion of Poverty Map

• Easy access
• Seminar and workshop
• Application to other welfare indicators

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Poverty Map Sustainability

• Initial production is externally driven
• Internalizing needs for poverty maps

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IV. Key Problems Challenges

• Limited technical expertise
• Integration of BPS other institutions data
• Perception of usefulness of poverty maps

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V. Recommendations

• Training and workshop
• Networking
• Facilitating data integration
• Supporting upstream and downstream research