HSS1101E International Health Theory

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HSS1101E International Health Theory March 5,
2009 - Climate Change and Health
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Climate Change
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What Is Climate Change?

• Climate change is the change in average weather
  over time and over a region. Climate change
  includes changes in temperature, wind patterns
  and precipitation.
• Its not just Global Warming, since some
  regions will get warmer and some regions colder

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What Is Climate Change?

• Strong evidence that it is caused by the
  Greenhouse effect, which is caused by carbon in
  the atmosphere
• Carbon comes from carbon dioxide, methane, and
  other gases
• Carbon sources are both human-made and natural
• Controversy to what extent is Climate Change
  caused by people to what extent is it caused by
  Carbon to what extent is it natural thawing of
  Ice Age?

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What are some of the ways that Climate Change can
affect health?
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(No Transcript)
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What are the mechanisms with which Climate Change
can affect population health?

• Heat waves
• Floods and storms
• Water scarcity and quality
• Communicable diseases
• Air pollution
• Changing agriculture
• Migration
• Insecurity
• Economic effects

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Heat Waves
-heat waves already kill hundreds, even
thousands, every year -in August 2003, 35000
people were killed in one week of intense heat in
Europe -exacerbated in urban environments -less
vegetative cover -artificial surfaces are less
cool -greater local CO2 production -frequency
of heat waves are expected to increase -according
to WHO, heat deaths in California alone will
double by 2100 -will also mean fewer cold waves
globally, but this is only relevant in countries
with winter -poor countries tend to be tropical,
therefore more susceptible to heat waves
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Floods and Storms
-the largest and fastest growing cities are on
coasts -construction patterns have led to less
natural protection (eg erosion)? -poor quality
housing makes people more vulnerable -inadequate
drainage in poor cities -according to WHO,
flooding will affect 200 million people by
2080 -in instances of flooding, it is always the
poor who suffer most -eg, Hurricane
Katrina -poor live in less secure
structures -poor live in more exposed areas
Asian tsunami anyone?
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Places most susceptible to floods and storms?
-Nile delta in Egypt -Ganges delta in
Bangladesh -small islands like the Maldives, the
Marshall Islands and Tuvalu
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Communicable Diseases
-waterborne and vector borne diseases are
strongly influenced by climate -mosquitoes that
carry dengue fever prefer high heat and
humidity -increasing global warming makes more
habitats for mosquitoes -increased population
density means faster spread of such diseases
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Water quality and scarcity
Because rivers are changing paths and rainfalls
are misscheduling, the predictability of the
safety of drinking water is uncertain.

• Already, 2 million deaths a year, mostly among
  young children, are due to diarrhea, directly
  caused by unsafe water.
• WHO estimates that today 2.4 of diarrheal deaths
  are due to climate change. (WHO uses very
  conservative methods to reach these estimates.)

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Water Availability Per Capita, 2007
www.earthtrends.wri.org
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Air Pollution
-Atmospheric pollutants tend to be greater on
hotter days (eg ozone)? -U.S. model predicts that
by 2050, due to global warming, ozone-related
deaths will increased by 4.5 and there will be
60 more alert days -exacerbated in emerging
nations with lesser urban planning schemes (China)
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Changing Agriculture
Agriculture is affected by temperature,
precipitation and soil quality. But in the long
run, Climate Change affects agriculture by
affecting

• productivity
• agricultural practices (through changes of water
  use, pesticides, etc)
• environmental effects (frequency and intensity of
  soil drainage, etc)
• rural space (loss of land due to desertification)
• adaptation (change in biology of species)

Poor agriculture leads to poor nutrition leads to
poor health
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Changing Agriculture
Agriculture is affected by temperature,
precipitation and soil quality
Poorest countries will be hit hardest. Reduction
in crop yield in tropical and sub-tropical
regions caused by decreased water and changed
insect behaviour. -IPCC (2001)
"southern Africa could lose more than 30 of its
main crop, maize, by 2030. In South Asia losses
of many regional staples, such as rice, millet
and maize could top 10". Science (2008)
In Africa and Latin America many rainfed crops
are near their maximum temperature tolerance, so
that yields are likely to fall sharply for even
small climate changes falls in agricultural
productivity of up to 30 over the 21st century
are projected. Marine life and the fishing
industry will also be severely affected in some
places. -IPCC (2001)
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Migration
In 2005, half of Bhola Island in Bangladesh
became permanently flooded, leaving 500,000
people homeless. They are being called the
world's first Climate Refugees. -Washington Post
(2007)
There is a long established intersection between
migration and health -sudden stress of large
numbers of people is ecologically
bad -environmental refugees must be fed,
sheltered and cared for -the world has a poor
track record of caring for mass
migrants -?Climate Refugees (first used in
1988)
"The growing number of disasters and conflicts
linked to future climate change will push the
numbers far higher unless urgent action is taken.
We estimate that between now and 2050 a total of
1 billion people will be displaced from their
homes. Christian Aid (2007)
1400 residents of Papua New Guinea's Carteret
Islands are permanently homeless because their
islands sank under rising sea levels -Sydney
Morning Herald (2002)
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Insecurity
War is bad for health. Need I explain why?
-high tension areas already exist with respect
to water -South Asia (India, Pakistan,
Bangladesh)? -Middle East (Lebanon, Israel,
Iraq, Iran)? -freshwater needed for drinking and
agriculture -flowing water needed for industry,
transportation and clean energy -with fossil
fuels out of fashion, greater need for
hydroelectic power --gtdams --gt denial of flowing
water downstream --gtconflict
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Insecurity
Israel and Lebanon almost went to war in 2003
over fresh water from the Hasbani river.
War is bad for health. Need I explain why?
War has been known to be triggered by climate.
Swings in temperature were correlated with times
of war in Eastern China between 1000 and 1911.
-Human Ecology (2007)
Global warming constitutes a security threat to
the USA, as there will be wars based on
diminishing fresh water supplies, refugees, and
higher rates of famine and disease -The Pentagon
(2007)
"Water at large is the central global warming
problem for the USA" -Princeton University
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Less money means less public health.
Economic Effects
Coral bleaching can lead to collapse of the
worlds fisheries in a matter of decades Am J
Prev Med (2008)
Case study Washington State(Dept of Ecology,
2008)

• Direct costs of fighting wildfires gt 75 million
  per year by the 2020s.
• Water conservation costs 16 million by 2040
• Public health costs
• Tourism and recreation losses
• Hydropower revenues down by 166 million by 2020
• Water price increases in some basins 680,000
  per million gallons per day.
• Dairy revenue loss 6 million per year by the
  2040s
• Crop losses 66 million
• Shoreline protection 50 million
• Flooding costs
• Cumulative economic effects (As one industry
  declines, another may follow.)

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Aside Psychosocial effects
Health Canada 2007 report Climate Change and
Health Vulnerability Assessment The Public
Health Agency of Canada is undertaking a study on
the projected mental health effects of
environmental stressors resulting from Climate
Change.
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Health Canada breaks down the climate change
health relationship like so
Temperature-related morbidity and
mortality -cold and health related
illnesses -respiratory and CV illnesses -increased
occupational health risks
Health effects of extreme weather
events -damaged public health infrastructure -inj
uries and illnesses -social and mental
stress -occupational health hazards -population
displacement
Air pollution related illnesses -changed
exposure to outdoor allergens -asthma, etc -CV
diseases (heart attacks, strokes, etc)? -cancer
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Water and food borne contamination -diarrhea -tox
ic algal blooms Vector and zoonotic
diseases -changed patterns of diseases caused by
insects, bacteria, etc Exposure to UV
rays -skin damage and cancer -cataracts -disturbed
immune function Vulnerable populations -seniors
-kids -chronically ill people -poor
people -Northern residents -disabled
people -people living off the land
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Socioeconomic impacts -loss of income and
productivity -social disruption -diminished
quality of life -increased costs to health
care -health effects of mitigating technologies
(eg, air conditioners)?