Chapter Four - Population: World Patterns, Regional Trends

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Chapter Four - Population World Patterns,
Regional Trends

• Singapore no more than two in 1960, at least
  two in 1986 The structure of the present
  controls the content of the future - in
  population policy.
• Age/Sex structure, pattern, trend, migration,
  social/economic impacts are all related to the
  population
• Population Geography - Focuses on the number,
  composition, and distribution of human beings in
  relation to variations in the conditions of earth
  space, such as the economic development,
  resources distribution, food supply, health and
  others related to population.
• Demography - statistical study of human
  population,

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Current Population

• Population in the US (www.census.gov)
  -287,990,095, Sept. 8, 2002,
• -290,113,455, Jan 26, 2003
• -291,968,356, Sep 3, 2003
• -292,504,294, Feb 2, 2004
• -295,173,050 Jan 2, 2005
• -298,052,194, Feb 6, 2006
• -303,339,763, Jan 31, 2008
• -305,207,899, Sept. 20, 2008
• an increase rate of 3 million per year. or 1
  growth rate.
• World Population
• 6,248,808,932 (9-8-2002)
• 6,315,271,206, (9-3-2003)
• 6,345,791,925, (2-2-2004)
• 6,410,187,864 (1-2-2005)
• 6,496,041,739 (2-6-2006)
• 6,647,469,365 (1-31-2008)
• 6,724,863,799 (9-20-2008)
• an increase of 79 million per year, or 1.2
  growth rate

3
Population Growth

• Implications of the Numbers
• In 2050, 9 billion is projected.
• 1 billion - 1820 (estimated)
• 2 billion - 1930
• 3 billion - 1950
• 4 billion - 1975
• 5 billion - 1987
• 6 billion - 1999
• 9 billion - 2050 (projected)

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World Population Share (fig 4.1)
2000 2050

• China 21
• India 17
• Other Asia/Oceania 17
• Sub-Saharan Africa 11
• Latin America 8
• Near East/North Africa 6

• China 15
• India 18
• Other Asia/Oceania 20
• Sub-Saharan Africa 18
• Latin America 9
• Near East/North Africa 8

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Population issues..

• Malnutrition and starvation - caused by the
  overpopulation, mainly a matter of distribution
  than of inability to produce enough food
  worldwide.
• loss of farmland, air/water pollution,
  deforestation, exhaustion of natural resources...

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Some Population Definitions

• Cohort - same age..
• Birth Rates Crude Birth Rate (CBR)
• Fertility Rates
• Death Rates
• Population Pyramids
• Natural Increase
• Doubling Times

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CBR - Crude Birth Rate

• Crude - live births per 1000 population without
  regard to the age or sex composition of that
  population.
• low 18 or less, (developed China)
• transitional - 18-30 (developing)
• Religious/Urbanization factors
• High CBR -Most in Africa, western and southern
  Asia and Latin America.
• 40 million births go unregistered per year.

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Chinas population policy

• Mao - 1965-1976 pop. increased from 540 to 852
  million, 37 to 25 CBR
• 1970 - two children policy CBR dropped to 19.5.
  However, pop was high already.
• 1979 - One child policy with incentive/penalties
  caused murdering of infant baby girls and high
  abortion rates
• 1984 - one-child policy dropped in rural
• 2000 - still implemented one-child policy.
• Relaxed policy seen recently.

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How to reduce CBR, especially in developing
countries?

• Improved womens education (some correlation, not
  absolutely related)
• one year of female schooling can reduce the
  fertility rate by between 5 and 10.
• demand of children in poor country - share
  workload

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Total Fertility Rate (fig 4.4)

• No. of children per childbearing-aged woman, a
  more reliable data since it minimizes the effects
  of fluctuation in the population structure.
• TFR 2.1 - 2.5 replacement level (replace
  current population) (some countries girls would
  die young)
• 2.8 is the current world level.
• 44 of pop in countries with TFR lt 2.1, and the
  is increasing.
• European Union in negative rate of natural
  increases. US. Canada, Australia, New Zealand,
  Japan, Taiwan, S. Korea, and Singapore are below
  replacement level. China is at 1.7
• Developed - drop to 1.6 from 2.0, 1.4 by 2006
• U.S. - 2.1 (Hispanic-3.0, African American-2.2,
  Asian-1.9)

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CDR (Crude Death Rate) (fig 4.7)

• Misleading sometimes, countries with high
  proportion of elderly people (Denmark/Sweden) is
  higher
• Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) deaths age 1 or
  less/1000 live births (fig 4.8)
• HIV/AIDS - the 4th most common cause of death
  worldwide

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Dependency Ratio

• Number of dependents, old or young, that each 100
  people in the productive years (15-64) must
  support.
• China - boys preference and one-child policy
  causes 1 million excess males a year ,entering
  marriage market beginning about 2100.
  (never-married men outnumber their female
  counterparts by 2 to 1)
• Excessive males in society caused many social
  problems..

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Doubling Time (Table 4.1)

• Linear vs. Exponential Growth
• Doubling time - time to double the current
  population
• Rate DT 1998
• 0.5 141 Ireland
• 0.75 94 Australia
• 1.00 70 China
• 1.50 46 Brazil
• 2.00 35 Costa Rica
• 2.50 28 Chad
• 3.00 24 Nigeria
• 3.50 20 Yemen

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100 Million Women are Missing

• China/India - preference for boys. For every 100
  males, there are 93.2 females in India, 120 boys
  per 100 girls in China. Some areas in China,
  newborn ratio reaches 140 males per 100 females
• Muslim countries Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, Saudi
  Arabia, United Arab Emirates ratio ranging from
  116100 to 186100.
• Cultural norms and practice, not poverty or
  underdevelopment, seem to determine the fate and
  swell the numbers of the worlds 100 million
  missing women. Main factors abortion of female
  fetuses, infanticide and food favoritism, 40
  million alone in India.
• Not all poor countries, exception Sub-Saharan
  Africa, Latin America and Caribbean