Proposal for a ClimateWeather Hydromet Test Bed

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Proposal for a Climate-Weather Hydromet Test Bed
Louis W. Uccellini Director, NCEP NAME
Forecaster Orientation Meeting Tuscon, AZ April
22, 2004

• Where Americas Climate and Weather Services
  Begin

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Overview

• Define NCEP
• Review Climate-Weather linkage
• Basis for a Hydromet Test Bed

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Define NCEP
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NCEP Mission Statement

• NCEP delivers national and global weather,
  climate, ocean and water guidance, forecasts,
  warnings, and analyses to its NWS Partners and
  External User Communities. These products and
  services respond to user needs to protect life
  and property, enhance the nations economy, and
  support the nations environmental information
  database.

NCEP Central Operations Climate
Prediction Center Environmental
Modeling Center Hydrometeorological
Prediction Center Ocean Prediction
Center
Aviation Weather Center
Space Environment Center
Tropical Prediction Center
Storm Prediction Center
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Total FTE 426 131 Contractors/24 Visitors
As of 10/1/04
51 FTE
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NCEPs Future is Built Upon

• Climate-Weather-Water-Land-Chemistry Linkages
  for example
• Seasonal Hurricane Outlooks Extratropical Storm
  patterns
• Meteorological-Hydrological forecasts
• Ocean and atmosphere coupled forecasts
• Atmosphere-Land Processes coupled forecasts
• Relationship of solar activity on service
  provision and climate fluctuations
• Ozone forecasts by combining air chemistry and
  operational models
• Seamless Suite of products through a
  collaborative approach
• Extension of predictability of Weather and
  Climate (from snowstorms to ENSO) Improve the
  forecasts of Extreme Events
• Community Model Approach Common Model
  Infrastructure
• Addressing uncertainty in forecasts Ensemble
  modeling
• NEW
• Collaborative Forecasting
• Unified Model Infrastructure applied from the
  Sun to the Sea

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Climate Weather Linkage
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Climate Weather Linkage

• Key to seamless suite of NWS products
• Is based primarily on the water cycle!
• Climate and weather communities have an equal
  focus on QPF
• NAME focus on warm-season QPF forced by
  hemispheric to synoptic scale
• USWRP/IHOP focus on QPF, recognizes warm-season
  precipitation as key to improving QPF scores,
  focus on synoptic to mesoscale
• THORPEX in planning stage (WMO)

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HPC QPF Verification1-inch Threat Score
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HPC QPF verification Day 1, 1 inch, Jan-Dec 2003
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Summer HPC QPF verification Day 1, 1 inch(June,
July, Aug average score)
Threat Score
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Basis for Hydromet Test Bed
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Basis for Hydromet Test Bed

• The challenge for linking climate/weather
  patterns is hydrometeorological in nature and
  are being addressed through model advancements
• New breakthrough Climate Forecast System being
  introduced
• WRF implementation/Eta Upgrades/Increase number
  of SREF members
• Global Ensembles 4 per day with increased
  resolution
• All of these systems need systematic assessment
  of forecast skill
• The assessment needs
• Forecaster input
• A QPF focus

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Basis for Hydromet Test Bed (cont.)

• Whether the forecast scale is seasonal/hemispheric
  or short-term/national to local, addressing the
  science issues
• Will involve study of physics/dynamics
• Will base advanced modeling approaches on a
  combination of higher resolution and ensemble
  approaches
• Will have to link the physics of land,
  hydrology, oceans and atmosphere within these
  models
• Will depend on optimal use of global observations
  to initialize models and verify forecasts
• Will depend on model-forecaster interactions

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Hydromet Test Bed Goals

• Improve QPFs from short-term to seasonal
• Address the optimal combination of modeling
  approaches from the high resolution to
  ensemble-based stochastic models
• Provide key tools to forecast community
  including training in the new ensemble world for
  a more rapid transition from the research to
  operational community
• Help address the key global observations and
  related data assimilation to improve QPF at all
  scales

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Hydromet Test Bed Proposal

• NCEP is ideally suited to host test bed
• Co-location of CPC and HPC
• Expanding collaboration forecast procedure to
  include RFCs and WFOs (providing basis for a
  distributed test bed?)
• Location of the International Training Desks
• Could accommodate scientist and forecasters from
  Mexico in a bilingual environment (already
  includes Central America)
• Co-located with the EMC and Joint Center for
  Satellite Data Assimilation
• Committed to making this work for both the
  climate and weather communities

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Current Status

• Proposal being considered by USWRP HPC/CPC
• Resources being reviewed within NCEP to see what
  can be reallocated
• Effort will commence to provide a management
  structure if both communities agree to sustain
  forward movement

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Summary

• Excited by NAME a world class experiment
• Opportunity exists for the climate-weather
  partnership to address this critical warm-season
  QPF
• NCEP will support creation of a Hydromet
  Test Bed

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Background Slides
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What Does NCEP Do?

Guidance to Support WFO/RFC
National Products

• Severe Storm Outlooks
• Fire Weather Outlooks
• Winter Weather Guidance
• Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts to 5 days
• Weather Forecasts to Day 7
• Day 8-14 Critical Weather Outlooks
• Marine Weather Discussions
• Model Discussions

• Severe Weather Watches
• Marine High Seas Forecasts
• Hurricane Watches and Warnings
• Aviation Warnings (Convective, Turbulence, Icing)
• Climate Forecasts (Weekly to Seasonal to
  Interannual)
• Solar Monitoring geomagnetic storm forecasts

• Model Development, Implementation and
  Applications for Global and RRegional Weather,
  Climate, Oceans and now Space Weather
• International Partnerships in Ensemble Forecasts
• Data Assimilation including the Joint Center for
  Satellite Data Assimilation
• Super Computer, Workstation and Network
  Operations