Chaordic Systems Thinking

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NOSMO Methodologendag 2005 Methodological
Aspects of Chaos and Complexity in Organisation
and Management
Frans M. van Eijnatten Eindhoven University of
Technology, NL
25 November 2005
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Contents of This Presentation Part 0
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Contents of This Presentation
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Contents of This Presentation Part 0

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Part A Some Chaos and Complexity
Definitions Part B Methodological Aspects of
CST Part C Connectivity Theme Part D
Consciousness Theme Part E Indeterminacy
Theme Part F Emergence Theme Part G
Conclusions and Publications
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Contents of This Presentation Part 0
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Part 1 to 4, and 6 only Summary
Part 1 A short History of Chaos and
Complexity Part 2 CC in Organisation and
Management Part 3 CST Some Foundations Part
4 Chaordic Systems Basic Concepts Part 5
Measurement of Chaordic Phenomena Part 6
Conclusions and Publications
Part 5 Focus
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Some CC Definitions Part A
A
Some Chaos and Complexity Definitions
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Chaos Some Definitions
Mathematical concept in nonlinear dynamics to
delin- eate systems that vary according to
precise determi-nistic laws but appear to behave
in a random fashion. Li Yorke,
1975 The qualitative study of unstable
a-periodic behaviour in deterministic nonlinear
dynamical systems . Kellert, 1993
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Chaos Some Definitions
Recurrent, random-like, and a-periodic
behaviour generated from deterministic nonlinear
equations with sensitive dependence on initial
conditions of the system . Huajie Liu
(1999)
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Complexity Some Definitions
Name given to the emerging field of research
that ex- plores systems in which a great many
independent agents are interacting with each
other in many ways . Waldrop,
1992 There are five sorts of complexity Random
complexity, probabilistic complexity,
deterministic chaos, emergent complexity and
newtonian dissipative structures.
Maguire McKelvey, 1999
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Chaos and Complexity Definitions

• chaos Anarchy, mayhem, bedlam, disarray,
  confusion,
• utter mess, complete absence of order.
• Chaos How complex things arise from simple
  systems.
• Simple non-linear systems lead to extremely
  complex
• behaviour.
• Complexity How simple things arise from
  complex
• systems. Position in between order and
  disorder
• (edge of chaos).
• The collection of scientific disciplines
  concerned with
• finding patterns among collections of
  behaviours or
• phenomena, across a multitude of scales in an
  effort
• to detect their laws of pattern generation or
  rules that
• explain the patterns observed.

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CC in OM Basic Concepts

• Chaord Any self-organising, adaptive,
  nonlinear, complex
• organism, organisation or community, whether
  physical,
• biological or social, the behaviour of which
  harmoniously
• blends characteristics of both order and
  chaos.
• Chaordic Anything simultaneously orderly and
  chaotic
• patterned in a way dominated neither by order
  nor chaos
• existing in the phase between order and
  chaos.
• Chaordic System A complex and dynamical
  arrangement
• of connections between elements forming a
  unified whole
• the behaviour of which is both unpredictable
  (chaotic) and
• patterned (orderly) ... simultaneously.
• Chaordic Systems Thinking A lens, a way of
  thinking, and
• subsequently an approach to designing a
  complex
• organisational system that recognises the
  enterprise not
• as a fixed structure, but as flow .

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Methodological Aspects Part B
B
The Measurement of Chaordic Phenomena
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Measurement

• Basic Question
• How to measure in a qualitative way the
  occurence of chaordic phenomena in companies
  such as
• Emergence, coherence and leap-like changes
• Bifurcation and weak signals
• Connectivity (dependence without causality)
• Interior aspects of both individuals and
  collectives

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Methods and Techniques (1)
Chaordic Systems Thinking
Qualitative Methods and Techniques
Some Explorations
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Some Empirical Results Management
Perceptions Prior to and Following Intensive
Dialogue
Van Eijnatten Van Galen, 2005
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Further empirical results Research- ers
estimates fol- lowing extensive analysis of
longi- tudinal observa- tional data
Van Eijnatten Van Galen, 2005
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Chaordic Systems Thinking
Methodological Requirements

• Emphasis on both wholes and parts (holons)
• Ability to trace emergent processes which sub-
• stantiate on the basis of intensive
  interaction
• of the parts
• Analysis of (real time) dynamical instead of
• static phenomena
• Identify weak signals instead of largest common
• denominators

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CST Qualitative Methods and Techniques

• Learning History / Narrative Method (Basten
  Linde, 2002)
• Reflective/Generative Dialogue (Ellinor
  Gerard, 1998)
• Participative Observation/ Simulation (Van
  Eijnatten Vink, 2002)
• PPP Chaordic Change Approach (Fitzgerald, 1996
  / 2002a)
• Holographic Decision-Making (Van Eijnatten
  Keizer, 2002)
• Emergent Leadership Dolphin Training
  (Fitzgerald, 2002b)
• Reflection Scenarios/Context Management (Peters
  Wetzels, 1998)

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Connectivity Theme Part C
C
The Measurement of Wholes or Holons (Connectivi
ty Theme)
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AssumptionsUnderpinning the Classical Newtonian
Worldview

• Materialist/Empiricists Assumption
• Reductionists Assumption
• Determinists Assumption
• Preservationists Assumption
• Interventionists Assumption

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Reductionists Assumption

• Every object is precisely equal to the sum of its
  parts nothing more and nothing less.
• A pure reductionist is one who breaks down
  wholes into their component parts as a primary
  means of simplifying his or her world.

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• Connectivity
• The Principle The organisation is an unbroken
  and unbreakable unity a wholeness in which no
  thing can exist or occur independently of the
  whole a pattern of active relationships between
  elements whose meaning is derived solely and
  entirely from their connection to the whole.
• Design Rule Think globally, act locally.

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Debunking of Classical Assumptions by the New
Science

• Consciousness annuls the Materialist/
  Empiricists Assumption
• Connectivity abrogates the Reductionists
  Assumption
• Indeterminacy refutes the Determinists
  Assumption
• Dissipation renounces the Preservationists
  Assumption
• Emergence disavows the Interventionists
  Assumption

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Connectivity abrogates the Reductionists
Assumption

• An enterprise is both a whole and a part a
  whole/ part or holon.
• No part can exist independently of the whole nor
  can any whole be sustained separately from its
  parts.

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• Holon Entity or agent that is autonomous with
  respect to
• one aspect, and dependent with respect to
  another aspect
• both whole and part of a bigger whole at the
  same time.
• Holarchy System of holons that cooperate to
  achieve goal
• or objective.
• Holonic Capacity A holons ability to operate
  with greater
• mindfulness, expanded awareness, control- and
  response-
• ability.
• Holonic Potential The possibility, eventuality,
  or likelyhood
• of future occurences of emergence.

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Definition of a Holon (1) Entity that is both a
whole, and part of a bigger whole, at the same
time Structure that is both autonomous and
dependent
A Holon
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Definition of a Holon (2) Entity that is both a
whole, and part of a bigger whole, at the same
time, indefinitely, unendingly, all the way up,
and all the way down
Higher-Level Holon
Lower-level Holon
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Individual versus Collective Holon
Individual Holon
Collective Holon
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Holons Horizontal and Vertical Dimensions
Vertical Dimension 'Holonic Depth' or Holonic
Capacity (Different Levels of Complexity)
Horizontal Dimension 'Holonic Width' or Holonic
Aggregation (Same Level of Complexity)
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Holonic Capacity
Some Examples of Holons with Various Degrees of
Holonic Capacity or Depth
Complex Holon
Whole - (Macro)
Educated Holon
Whole - (Macro)
Simple Holon
Whole - (Macro)
(Micro) - Part
(Micro) - Part
(Micro) - Part
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Learning Discontinuous Growth in Holonic Capacity
Holon's
Development Level 5
Levels of Depth
Self- Transcendence
Development Level 4
Development Level 3
Development Level 2
Self- Dissolution
Development Level 1
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Connectivity Theme End of Part C
How to assess Connectivity? (Measurement of
Wholes or Holons)
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CST Qualitative Methods and Techniques
Measurement of Wholes/Holons

• Learning History / Narrative Method (Basten
  Linde, 2002)
• Reflective/Generative Dialogue (Ellinor
  Gerard, 1998)
• Participative Observation/ Simulation (Van
  Eijnatten Vink, 2002)
• PPP Chaordic Change Approach (Fitzgerald, 1996
  / 2002a)
• Holographic Decision-Making (Van Eijnatten
  Keizer, 2002)
• Emergent Leadership Dolphin Training
  (Fitzgerald, 2002b)
• Reflection Scenarios/Context Management (Peters
  Wetzels, 1998)

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Consciousness Theme Part D
D
The Measurement of Interior Aspects (Consciousne
ss Theme)
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AssumptionsUnderpinning the Classical Newtonian
Worldview

• Materialist/Empiricists Assumption
• Reductionists Assumption
• Determinists Assumption
• Preservationists Assumption
• Interventionists Assumption

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Materialist/Empiricists Assumption

• The only true reality is that which may be known
  by the five senses.
• A pure empiricist is one who must be able to see,
  hear, touch, taste or smell some thing before
  crediting it as existent.

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Chaordic System Properties

• Consciousness
• The Principle Mind is a fundamental groundstate
  of an organisation.
• Design Rule If you want to change a sys-tems
  reality, you must first change its mind.

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Debunking of Classical Assumptions by the New
Science

• Consciousness annuls the Materialist/
  Empiricists Assumption
• Connectivity abrogates the Reductionists
  Assumption
• Indeterminacy refutes the Determinists
  Assumption
• Dissipation renounces the Preservationists
  Assumption
• Emergence disavows the Interventionists
  Assumption

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Consciousness annuls the Materialist/Empiricists
Assumption

• Both matter and mind comprise the basic
  ingredients of an organisation.

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Chaordic Concepts V
Wilbers Two-by-two table consisting
of four cells Quadrants which are
produced by two dichotomies Individual
versus Collective, and Interior
versus Exterior Exterior The
outside of a holon, its material base
What can be empirically and
objectively measured What
can be perceived by our five senses
What can be known by description.
Interior The inside of a holon, its
consciousness What cannot be
empirically, objectively measured
What cannot be perceived by our five
senses What must be
interpreted What can be
known only by acquaintance
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Wilbers Quadrants
Interior
Exterior
Individual
behavioural
intentional
I
It
We
It
cultural
social
Collective
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Wilbers Quadrants
Interior
Exterior
Individual
behavioural
intentional
"Complexity in Awareness"
"Complexity in Actions"
I
It
We
It
cultural
social
Collective
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Consciousness Theme End of Part D
How to assess Consciousness ? (Measurement
of Interior Aspects, Complexity in Awareness)
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CST Qualitative Methods and Techniques
Measurement of Interior Aspects

• Learning History / Narrative Method (Basten
  Linde, 2002)
• Reflective/Generative Dialogue (Ellinor
  Gerard, 1998)
• Participative Observation/ Simulation (Van
  Eijnatten Vink, 2002)
• PPP Chaordic Change Approach (Fitzgerald, 1996
  / 2002a)
• Holographic Decision-Making (Van Eijnatten
  Keizer, 2002)
• Emergent Leadership Dolphin Training
  (Fitzgerald, 2002b)
• Reflection Scenarios/Context Management (Peters
  Wetzels, 1998)

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Indeterminacy Theme Part E
E
The Measurement of Weak Signals (Indeterminacy
Theme)
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AssumptionsUnderpinning the Classical Newtonian
Worldview

• Materialist/Empiricists Assumption
• Reductionists Assumption
• Determinists Assumption
• Preservationists Assumption
• Interventionists Assumption

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Determinists Assumption

• Every event is a cause ultimately producing a
  singular effect which in turn, becomes the
  cause of a subsequent effect.
• A pure determinist is one who is confident in his
  or her belief that for all intents and purposes,
  there is but one future awaiting us that was
  literally decided by the initial conditions.

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• Indeterminacy
• The Principle The organisation is so dynamically
  complex that any link between cause and effect is
  necessarily obscured. The future, therefore, can
  never be known in advance.
• Design Rule Stop wasting valuable time and
  resources planning for the there and then when
  the future is being created here and now.

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Debunking of Classical Assumptions by the New
Science

• Consciousness annuls the Materialist/
  Empiricists Assumption
• Connectivity abrogates the Reductionists
  Assumption
• Indeterminacy refutes the Determinists
  Assumption
• Dissipation renounces the Preservationists
  Assumption
• Emergence disavows the Interventionists
  Assumption

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Indeterminacy refutes the Determinists Assumption

• In the dynamical complexity of the enter-prise,
  every event is both cause and effect.
  Furthermore, any link between the two is
  inescapably obscured rendering the future from
  the next moment on, unknowable.

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Chaordic Concepts VIII

• Time Conceptual dimension wherein change
  occurs either
• as an empirical observation, or as
  conceptualised through
• abstracted analysis.
• History Generic term for information about a
  holons past.

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Traditional Concept of Time
Traditional Linear Approach Uni-Causal Chain of
Events

You can predict the future on the basis of your
knowledge about the past and the present, by a
statistical process of extrapolation, or linear
planning.
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New Concept of Time
Chaordic Systems Thinking Concept of
Indeterminacy

The future is principally unknowable, in advance.
Therefore, planning can only be used for the
purpose of priority setting in the present.
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The future might be observable as a weak
signal in the present
B
b
Complexity and Coherence
t0 Present
t1 Future

B
strong signals
A
b
weak signal
Time
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CST Concept of Time No Linear Planning but the
Creation of Desirable Future Scenarios in the
Present

Traditional Linear Approach Uni-Causal Chain of
Events

Past
Present
Future
leads to
leads to
Now
Vision
Memory
Chaordic Systems Thinking Consider only the
Moment of Now
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Indeterminacy Theme End of
Part E
How to assess Indeterminacy ? (Measurement
of Weak Signals)
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CST Qualitative Methods and Techniques
Measurement of Weak Signals

• Learning History / Narrative Method (Basten
  Linde, 2002)
• Reflective/Generative Dialogue (Ellinor
  Gerard, 1998)
• Participative Observation/ Simulation (Van
  Eijnatten Vink, 2002)
• PPP Chaordic Change Approach (Fitzgerald, 1996
  / 2002a)
• Holographic Decision-Making (Van Eijnatten
  Keizer, 2002)
• Emergent Leadership Dolphin Training
  (Fitzgerald, 2002b)
• Reflection Scenarios/Context Management (Peters
  Wetzels, 1998)

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Emergence Theme Part F
F
The Measurement of Surprise (Emergence Theme)
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AssumptionsUnderpinning the Classical Newtonian
Worldview

• Materialist/Empiricists Assumption
• Reductionists Assumption
• Determinists Assumption
• Preservationists Assumption
• Interventionists Assumption

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• Emergence
• The Principle The developmental tendency of an
  organisation is toward ascending levels of
  coherence and complexity.
• Design Rule Design the system to fully op-timize
  its inherent capacity for self-organisat-ion,
  self-reference, and self-replication.

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Debunking of Classical Assumptions by the New
Science

• Consciousness annuls the Materialist/
  Empiricists Assumption
• Connectivity abrogates the Reductionists
  Assumption
• Indeterminacy refutes the Determinists
  Assumption
• Dissipation renounces the Preservationists
  Assumption
• Emergence disavows the Interventionists
  Assumption

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Emergence disavowes the Interventionists
Assumption

• As an organisation advances on its traject-ory
  toward ever-higher orders of coherence and
  complexity, it must both differentiate into the
  many and integrate as one.

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Chaordic Concepts VI

• Sigmoid Curve S-shaped response graph that
  resembles trends
• in the life cycle of many living things or
  phenomena.
• Bifurcation Qualitative change in an
  attractor's structure.
• Transition from a stable phase into a
  unstable phase. Act of
• dividing a single state into two or more
  states. Oscillation be-
• tween two or more states.
• Butterfly Effect Undetectable differences in
  starting conditions
• can lead complex holons through a series of
  bifurcations, to vastly
• different end points. The formal term is for
  this phenomenon is
• Sensitive Dependence on Initial Conditions
  (SDIC).
• Eye / Cross in the Chaos Area in which a holon
  is under the influ-
• ence of different attractors.
• Edge of Chaos State in which the holon is
  balanced between
• stability (order) and anarchy (chaos), in
  which spontaneous self-

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Chaordic Concepts VII

• Complexity Complexity can only exist if two
  aspects are
• present at the same time Distinction and
  connection.
• Connection leads to order, distinction leads
  to disorder.
• Postion in between order and disorder (edge
  of chaos).
• Coherence An allignment of context, viewpoint,
  purpose,
• and action. Maximal satisfaction of multiple
  constraints.
• Coherence requires connection and mutual
  support of the
• different beliefs, mere consistency is not
  sufficient.
• Fractal Repetition of self-similar patterns
  across levels or
• scale A fractal element reflects and
  represents the
• characteristics of the whole, in the sense
  that similar
• patterns of behaviour are found at different
  levels.
• In fractals, repeated properties denote the
  multiple levels
• of a holon.

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Discontinuous GrowthJumping the Sigmoid Curve
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Edge of Chaos / Eye or Cross in the Chaos
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Reflection Scenarios
- Quadrant I Scenario
which is characterized by doing old things,
embedded in old thinking -
Quadrant II Scenario which is characterized by
doing new things, embedded in old
thinking - Quadrant III Scenario which is
characterized by doing old things,
embedded in new thinking - Quadrant IV
Scenario which is characterized by doing new
things, embedded in new thinking
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Emergence Theme End of Part F
How to assess Emergence ? (Measurement of
Surprise)
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CST Qualitative Methods and Techniques
Measurement of Surprise

• Learning History / Narrative Method (Basten
  Linde, 2002)
• Reflective/Generative Dialogue (Ellinor
  Gerard, 1998)
• Participative Observation/ Simulation (Van
  Eijnatten Vink, 2002)
• PPP Chaordic Change Approach (Fitzgerald, 1996
  / 2002a)
• Holographic Decision-Making (Van Eijnatten
  Keizer, 2002)
• Emergent Leadership Dolphin Training
  (Fitzgerald, 2002b)
• Reflection Scenarios/Context Management (Peters
  Wetzels, 1998)

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Conclusions and Publications Part G
G
Methodological Aspects of Chaos and
Complexity in Organisation and
Management Conclusions and Publications
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Conclusions

• The New Science of Chaos and Complexity in
  Organisation and Management is well on its way
  to become a new paradigm in Manage-ment Science,
  that allows the development of organizations of
  which the aim is to achieve real novelty. But...
  more efforts are needed to develop new methods
  of measurement which respect the chaordic
  properties.

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Conclusions Towards Real Novelty
Real Novelty
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Conclusions Towards Real Novelty
Goal
Known
Unknown
Improvement or Optimisation
Known
Renewal
Path
Real Novelty
Unknown
Renewal
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Further Reading All References
Eijnatten, F.M. van (2005), Articles about Chaos
and Complexity in Organisation and Management.
Eindhoven Technische Universiteit,
WWW http//www.chaosforum.com/nieuws/Eijnatten.ht
ml.
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Further Participation
Join the NOSMO Socio-Cybernetics Working
Group Register at http//www.chaosforum.com/nie
uwspagina/wsc.htm
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NOSMO Methodology Workshop 2005 Socio-Cybernetics
Working Group 25 November 2005
Thank you for your Attention