WARM AND COLD WAVES AND PRECIPITATION VARIABILITY

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• WARM AND COLD WAVES AND PRECIPITATION VARIABILITY
  
• ON TERRITORY BiH IN LAST TEN YEARS
• COMPARATIVE WITH ROW 1961-1990
• ELJKO MAJSTOROVIC,
• Denan Zulum, Ismira Ahmovic, Ibrahim
  Hadismajlovic,
• Federal Meteorological Institute BH, Sarajevo.

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• Consequence of climate changes
• - Increasing global average temperature last
  hundred years for about 0,7o C
• - Increasing variability of weather and number
  of natural catastrophe as a resoult of
  meteorologycal opportunity

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Introduction

• Last decade (1996-2005) was warmest in last 50
  years on the territory BH.
• The research this phenomena, we were using
  folowing stations data

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• However researches with monthly and decade values
  hadn't give adequate results, because extremly
  warm and extremely cold periods are of short
  duration. So, we desided to do our researches by
  pentades values (periods of five days) and
  compare it with adequate values in respective
  order 1961-1990 year.

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• Figure 1 show average pentad temperature
  oscillations in Sarajevo

Figure 1
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• Figure 2 shows anomalies of average pentad
  temperature oscillations on Sarajevo station
  applied to a decade

Figure 2
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Similar oscillations were detected at
precipitation. (Fig 3). We can see two extreme
pentad sum in Sarajevo 169.5 mm (4th pentad
December 1999) and 138.7 mm (5th October 2003).
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Temperature

• To determine intensity and number of these
  oscillations we applied these conditions tsd,
  t2sd, t-sd, t-2sd, and we analyzed 720 values
  of pentad temperature from row 1996. 2005.
• Tables 1 and 2 shows result.
• In table 1 we can see that number of evidenced
  extreme pentad is highest in Mostar, and lowest
  on Bjelasnica.

Number of pentads with average temperatures gt
tsd or t-sd
Table 1.
BJELASNICA
SARAJEVO
SANSKI MOST
MOSTAR
 
100,0
187,0
181,0
202,0
Worm
78,0
101,0
93,0
83,0
Cold
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Number of pentads with record temperatures is
also equaled. We can spot difference in number of
absolute maximums and absolute minimums witch is
to be expected considering the fact that last
decade (1996. 2005) was very warm. Number of
absoluteminimums is still relatively high and it
is pointing to great temperature oscillations and
great changes of the wader in last decade
Number of pentads with temperatures gt abs. max or
abs. min
Table 2.
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Precipitation

• Number of rain pentad is unequaled for observed
  stations it is approximately equal in Sanski
  Most and Sarajevo, while in Mostar and
  Bjelanica.
• Number of strongly rain pentad is equaled for
  all observed stations except Bjelanica with
  higher number. It is same case for the number of
  extreme rain pentad. This number is also
  relatively high, and it indicates changes in
  precipitation regime.
• Dry periods were not analyzed here

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Number of pentads with precipitation gt Rsd or
R2sd or max. precip.
Table 3.
BJELASNICA
SARAJEVO
SANSKI MOST
MOSTAR
 
73,0
124,0
126,0
97,0
Rainy
72,0
52,0
52,0
49,0
Very rainy
40,0
28,0
25,0
25,0
Extreme rainy
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Conclusion

• We are determined a large number, of pentads
  with extreme values using parameters. However
  because of trends global worming the number of
  warm periods are increasing also is evident large
  number of cold periods what indicating on huge
  oscillations of temperatures.
• Analyses of precipitations indicate large
  number of pentads sum with extreme values.
  Processing pentad values we determined presence.
  We indicated cold and worm waves and large
  variability regime of precipitations.
• Observed phenomena are in harmony with worlds
  processes of global warming.

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