Missing collaborator

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Missing collaborator
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Conceptual Overview
Landscape Processes
Land Use

• Land use landscape processes affect habitat

Freshwater Habitat
Freshwater habitat affects productivity capacity
SHIRAZ
Biological Response
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The SHIRAZ model

• Developed for Muckelshoot Tribe in WA to evaluate
  ESA recovery planning for salmon
• Uses flexible life history, with reach by reach
  specification of habitat characteristics
• Basic structure can be simplified and adapted to
  meet various needs (i.e. its a framework)
• Built with Visual Basic integrates with Excel

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Alternative life histories

• Spawners
• Adults

• Spawners
• Eggs
• Fry
• First winter residents
• Smolts
• Ocean residents
• Adults

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Relate life history to habitat
Stage 1
Habitat
Stage 2
Habitat
Stage 3
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Multistage Beverton-Holt Model (Mousalli
Hilborn 1986)
Ns individuals alive at stage s p max.
survival rate from s ? s1 productivity c
max. N producible at s1 capacity
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Key Attributes

• In general
• Freshwater survival driven by relationships
  between habitat, p, c
• c determined by quantity of habitat
• p determined by quality of habitat

• Also assume
• Freshwater survival is density-dependent
• Marine survival is density-independent

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Habitat Variables

• Inherent hard-wired
• spawning area
• rearing area
• fines
• impervious
• Generic
• Increase or decrease c p around a reference
  level
• Multiplier specified by a general quadratic
  relationship
• Based on difference between present state and
  reference

Multiplier expf1(state ref) f2(state
ref)2
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Example of Habitat Relationship
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Changing habitat variables
1) Underlying trend (i.e. annual increase or
decrease)
Hmax
trendgt0
trendlt0
0
2) Intervention (i.e. bulk addition or removal)
Hmax
()
(-)
0
Time
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Other model features
Harvest strategies
Hatchery influence
Ocean survival
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Integration with PRISM
Landscape Processes
Land Use
PRISM
Freshwater Habitat
SHIRAZ
Biological Response
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Linking landscape to life history
Stage 1
Climate
FW Habitat
Stage 2
Ocean Habitat
Hydrology
Stage 3
Land use
Landscape Processes
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Current status

• Programming interactive improvements
• Researching habitat-fish relationships
• Researching hydrology-habitat relationships

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Moving Forward

• Choose watershed (Snohomish or Puyallip/White?)
• Add variable hydrology inputs
• Allow for various what if scenarios

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Example scenario
Ambient Decrease Increase
?
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Ocean regime shifts

• Evaluation of alternative harvest strategies
  should be robust to uncertainty about future
  ocean changes
• May want to include known ocean changes based on
  historical data

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SHIRAZSummary

• Its a modeling framework
• Uses flexible life history
• Spatially explicit habitat characteristics
• Basic structure can be simplified and adapted