Decadal Outlook for Satellite Observations for Climate

1
Decadal Outlook for Satellite Observations for
Climate

• Dr. Eric Lindstrom
• Physical Oceanography Program
• Earth Science Division, Science Mission
  Directorate

April 30, 2007
2
Overview of Talk

• Satellite Observations for Climate - Really
  just the limited view from a physical
  oceanographer at NASA HQ
• Perspective - The Golden Age of satellite
  oceanography
• NASA - Current Program/Transitions/Missions in
  Development and the NRC Decadal Survey
• Meeting Climate Observing Requirements - Example
  Assessment for Physical Oceanography
• Issues - NPOESS, Research-to-Operations
  transitions
• Conclusions/Challenges

3
NASA Earth Observatories
Ocean Coastal Research
4
(No Transcript)
5
Global Mean Sea Level Trends
Sea level trend changes in the past decade have
complex global patterns that show basin-wide
changes of ocean circulation on decadal time
scales
L-L Fu, JPL
6
Global Mean Sea Level Trends
For the first time in history the global mean sea
level is directly estimated from global
observations. The contribution of ice melting is
estimated when global mean sea level is coupled
with ocean temperature.
J. Willis/JPL
7
Continuity for Current Measurements

• NPOESS had a key role to play in continuing
  current measurement capability uncertainty in
  program has increased
• Terra/Aqua - imaging/sounding - NPP, C1, (but
  note concern about AM orbit)
• Aura - ozone column/profile - NPP,
• SORCE - Total Solar Irradiance - TSIS
• CERES - Earth Radiation Budget - ERBS
• Jason/OSTM - Sea Surface Altimetry - ALT
• QuikScat - Ocean Surface Winds - CMIS
• Glory - Aerosol Polarimetry - APS
• NPOESS evolution has potential to (will)
  introduce gaps into data records

8
Upcoming NASA Program

• OCO - 2008 - carbon dioxide columns
• OSTM - 2008 - ocean surface topography
• Glory - 2008 - aerosol polarimetry, total solar
  irradiance
• Aquarius - 2009 - sea surface salinity
• NPP - 2009 - imaging/sounding, ozone
  column/profile
• LDCM - 2011- land cover
• GPM - 2012 - global precipitation
• Earth System Science Pathfinder missions

9
Future NASA Program Decadal Survey
10
Observing System Requirements
Meet GOOS Requirements for Global Component with
GCOSImplementation Plan - Remote Sensing
Component establishedin 2006 (POC - Ed Harrison).
Systematic Observation Requirements for
Satellite-based Products for Climate
Supplemental details to the satellite-based
component of the Implementation Plan for the
Global Observing System for Climate in Support of
the UNFCCC (GCOS-92) Draft version 2.0

GCOS Secretariat GCOS-107 WMO/TD No. 1338
11
GCOS Essential Climate Variables Essential
Climate Variables that are both currently
feasible for global implementation and have a
high impact on UNFCCC requirements. Domain Atmos
pheric(over land, sea and ice) Surface Air
temperature, Precipitation, Air pressure, Surface
radiation budget, Wind speed and direction, Water
vapour. Upper-air Earth radiation budget
(including solar irradiance), Upper-air
temperature (including MSU radiances), Wind speed
and direction, Water vapour, Cloud
properties. Composition Carbon dioxide,
Methane, Ozone, Other long-lived greenhouse gases
, Aerosol properties. Oceanic Surface Sea-surfa
ce temperature, Sea-surface salinity, Sea level,
Sea state, Sea ice, Current, Ocean colour (for
biological activity), Carbon dioxide partial
pressure. Sub-surface Temperature, Salinity,
Current, Nutrients, Carbon, Ocean tracers,
Phytoplankton. Terrestrial River discharge,
Water use, Ground water, Lake levels, Snow cover,
Glaciers and ice caps, Permafrost and
seasonally-frozen ground, Albedo, Land cover
(including vegetation type), Fraction of absorbed
photosynthetically active radiation (fAPAR), Leaf
area index (LAI), Biomass, Fire disturbance.
12
Ocean (1)
13
Ocean (2)
14
Ocean (3)
15
CEOS constructed a response to the GCOS
SatelliteRequirements for UNFCCC (Presented Nov.
2006 in Nairobi - POC is Barbara Ryan USGS).
Satellite Observation of the Climate System The
Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS)
Response to the Global Climate Observing System
(GCOS) Implementation Plan (IP) Developed by
CEOS and submitted to the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
Subsidiary Body on Scientific and Technical
Advice (SBSTA) on behalf of CEOS by the United
States of America (USA) delegation September
2006
16
(No Transcript)
17
(No Transcript)
18
KNOWN FUTURE ALTIMETRY MISSIONS
End of life
In orbit
Approved
Planned/Pending approval
GFO
NPOESS
IPY
Data gap
ERS-2/RA
Sentinel-3
ENVISAT/RA-2
ERS-1
ALTIKA
TOPEX/Poseidon
Data gap?
Data gap?
Jason-1
Jason-2
Jason-3?
CRYOSAT-2
CNES/EUMETSAT/NASA/NOAA signedLetter of
Agreement for Jason-2
GODAE
19
Summary Assessment
Summary using a color bar chart.

• No Bar Nothing
• Red Something, Below Threshold
• Yellow At threshold (marginal)
• Green Above threshold (fully adequate)
• Threshold GCOS ECV threshold
• Mission nominal lifetime
• Beyond lifetime go to Red within six months

20
Example - ECV Sea Level
Planned or pending approval
In orbit
Approved
T/P
High accuracy Reference orbit
Jason
Jason-1
Jason-2
ERS-1
ERS-2
Lower accuracy Polar orbit
Envisat
S-3
GFO
NPOESS
Altika
ECV Sea Level
Above threshold
Below threshold
At threshold
21
Ocean Domain Assessment
22
NPOESS Impact Assessment
23
NPOESS Impact Assessment
24
NASA/NOAA Collaboration Assessment

• Near-term (project-specific, hand-off ) issues
  are regularly identified and worked between NASA
  and NOAA (JWG established 12/2005)
• Observing Capability Introduction or Transition
  (e.g. altimetry)
• Mission Extension (e.g. TRMM, Quikscat)
• Data Utilization (many examples)
• Long-term (ongoing, hand-holding) issues
  include
• Setting and re-evaluating observing requirements
  for research and operations (IORD, GCOS, GEO,
  etc.)
• Technology infusion into operational systems
• Climate Data Records (e.g. SST)
• Standards and Tools (e.g. ESMF)

25
Research and Operations

• Process is an evolution
• Maturity of transition is parameter dependent
• Objective extend relevant NASA research to
  help NOAA meet short and long-term service and
  operational mission requirements
• NASA and NOAA have R2O working group to address
  transition
• Ocean Parameter
• Sea Surface Temperature
• AVHRR ? MODIS ? NPP VIIRS ? NPOESS VIIRS
• Sea Surface Height TOPEX/Poseidon ? Jason ?
  OSTM ?
• Chlorophyll-a
• SeaWiFS ? MODIS ? NPP VIIRS ? NPOESS VIIRS
• Ocean Surface Wind
• QuikSCAT, WindSat/Coriolis ? NPOESS CMIS
• Sea Ice Properties (Extent, Thickness)
• Extent DMSP ? AMSR-E ? CMIS Thickness ICESat
• Gravity
• GRACE
• Sea Surface Salinity
• Aquarius (mission confirmation, Fall 2005)

26
Principles for Long-Term Planning

• Realistic plans can be hatched given specific
  requirements or resource constraints.
  Credibility of plans depend critically on clear
  statement of requirements, cost, and schedule.
• We cannot ignore history. The many lessons
  learned from POES, GOES, NASA EOS, and NPOESS
  must be assimilated in long-range planning. (e.g.
  risks of large platform architectures,
  requirements creep, necessity for technology
  demonstration)
• Technology infusion planning (hardware and
  intellectual) is critical to success in programs
  spanning decades.
• Partnerships offer both opportunity and risk.
  Interagency and international dependencies must
  be very carefully cultivated and trust
  established.

27
Challenges for Climate Science

• Refresh the GCOS requirements
• 2) Emphasize planning end-to-end systems
  including research demonstration, operations,
  productsservices, and technology infusion. The
  more seamless this planning, the more likely we
  can realize climate data records.
• 3) Work toward better integration of in situ and
  remotesensing in JCOMM, GCOS and CEOS.Set
  priorities. Resources are limited now. Join
  efforts to expand resource base.

28
Challenges for Climate Science
29
(No Transcript)
30
BACKUP SLIDES

• ERIC LINDSTROM

31
Challenges for Climate Science
Workshop recommendations (September 1998 -
Williamsburg) ------------------------ 1. A
strategy to provide decade(s)-long, space-based,
geophysical data products should be
developed by space agencies. This encompasses
the need to work carefully to maintain
calibration and validation for long periods
despite changes in technology, agency
responsibility, and evolving science
requirements. Long, global, well-maintained
instrumental time series are critical to climate
studies. 2. It is important to maintain
high-quality measurements of sea surface
height and extend the time series of global ocean
winds. These are important quantities in
decadal climate variability and in decadal
variability of ENSO. A program to demonstrate
the feasibility of making high-accuracy,
global measurements of sea surface salinity
and precipitation from space-based platforms is
needed as well. Solar irradiance variations
must be tracked and compared with climate
records. 3. In support of this space-based
observing program, there should be an in-situ
measurement/calibration program using buoy- and
float-mounted instruments. In view of the
observations and model results showing a
likely association between the subtropical gyres,
and decadal SST and upper-ocean heat content
anomalies, extensions of the TAO and PIRATA
arrays to the equatorward sides of the
subtropical gyres is worth considering. To
observe gyre circulations and potential
subduction processes, globally-deployed
PALACE floats in the Atlantic and the Pacific
are required that would reside along a particular
subsurface density surface and profile to
the surface intermittently. The assimilation of
these space-based and in-situ observations in
global ocean-atmosphere models should be an
integral part of this program.
32
Challenges for Climate Science
4. More effort is needed to develop and
rigorously analyze global ocean- atmosphere
models to understand mechanisms of decadal
climate variability its predictability and
its interaction with ENSO, its
predictability, and its global teleconnections.
5. U.S. scientists and their international
collaborators need increased support for
development of global instrumental and proxy
databases through funding of special
projects, including data archaeology and rescue
projects. A hierarchy of quality-controlled
ocean, atmosphere, and land data sets
ranging from the basic data sets containing
original measurements to various levels of
derived data sets should be established and the
usefulness of each level of data should be
assessed for various types of applications.
The databases developed as a result of such
projects will support efforts in climate
system modeling and remote sensing. 6.
There should be a program to rigorously analyze
these historical (instrument-measured and
proxy) data sets to quantify characteristics
of decadal climate variability, decadal
variability of ENSO and its teleconnections,
and to conduct empirical predictability studies.

33
Sea Surface Salinity Aquarius

• The effect of salinity on surface height is
  comparable to the effect of temperature.
• Salinity is a key density variable that drives
  circulation. It is a critical area of scientific
  uncertainty in the oceans' capacity to store and
  transport heat that affects the Earth's water
  cycle and climate.
• Conventional in situ sampling is sparse.
• Aquarius will provide the first-ever global maps
  of salt concentration on the ocean surface.
• Aquarius will measure global SSS synoptically
  every month for 3 years, that will link the water
  cycle, climate, and ocean.
• Aquarius is joint US-Argentine collaboration -
  mission confirmation review is scheduled for
  Fall, 2005

Percentage of dynamic height variability due to
salinity (Maes and Behringer, 2000).
34
Enhancing Ocean Altimetry Wide Swath

• Wide Swath Ocean Altimentry (WSOA) will measure
  ocean surface topography with a spatial
  resolution that is required to sample ocean
  eddies, an important component of the ocean
  circulation.
• WSOA (solid box plus dashed box) will resolve
  eddies in most of the oceans. It takes more than
  5 nadir altimeters to match the WSOA resolution.

1000 yr
climate change
100 yr
Future Satellites
10 yr
1 yr
Time Scale
1 mon
Current Satellites
1 wk
WSOA
1 d
103
104
102
10
1
10-1
10-2
Spatial Scale (km)
35
SAR for ice sea state
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

ASAR/Envisat C-band
GMES S-1
AMI/ERS
RADARSAT-3
RADARSAT-2 C-band
RADARSAT-1 C-band
PALSAR/ALOS L-band
COSMO-SKYMED X-band
TERRASAR-X X-band
Planned/Pending approval
In orbit
Approved
36
NASAs Mission and Vision

• NASA will continue the objectives for space
  exploration established in the National
  Aeronautics and Space Act of 1958.
• To pioneer the future in space exploration,
• Scientific discovery, and aeronautics research.
• NASA has embraced President George W. Bushs
  directive, A Renewed Spirit of Discovery The
  Presidents Vision for Space Exploration, as the
  Agencys Vision.
• Explore the solar system and beyond
• Return humans to the Moon in the next decade
• Ultimately send humans to Mars and beyond
• Enhance understanding of the planets and
• Ask new questions and answer questions as old as
  humankind.

37
NASAs Strategic Goals 2006 Through 2016

• Strategic Goal 1 Fly the Shuttle as safely as
  possible until its retirement, not later than
  2010.
• Strategic Goal 2 Complete the International
  Space Station in a manner consistent with NASAs
  International Partner commitments and the needs
  of human exploration.
• Strategic Goal 3 Develop a balanced overall
  program of science, exploration, and aeronautics
  consistent with the redirection of the human
  spaceflight program to focus on exploration.
• Strategic Goal 4 Bring a new Crew Exploration
  Vehicle into service as soon as possible after
  Shuttle retirement.
• Strategic Goal 5 Encourage the pursuit of
  appropriate partnerships with the emerging
  commercial space sector.
• Strategic Goal 6 Establish a lunar return
  program having the maximum possible utility for
  later missions to Mars and other destinations.

38
Sub-goal 3A
Study Earth from space to advance scientific
understanding and meet societal needs.

• Over the next 10 years, NASA will deploy the next
  generation of advanced observing and research
  capabilities
• In 2008, Glory will help characterize aerosol
  properties and provide measurement continuity of
  the Suns influence on Earths climate system
• In 2008, the NPOESS Preparatory Project (NPP)
  will extend the data record of essential
  measurements and demonstrate new weather
  satellite instruments
• In 2008, the Ocean Surface Topography Mission
  (OSTM) will take the next step toward an
  operational capability for ocean altimetry from
  space.
• In 2008, the Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO)
  will take the first measurements of the global
  distribution of carbon dioxide
• In 2009, Aquarius will take the first global
  measurements of sea surface salinity.
• By 2012, the Global Precipitation Measurement
  (GPM) mission will extend the coverage of
  observations currently demonstrated by the TRMM
  satellite.
• NASA and USGS will conduct a mission to secure
  near-term availability of Landsat-type data and
  will design a strategy for long-term data
  continuity.

39
Earth Science at NASA is Part of an End-to-End
Program of Science for Society
40
National Space Policy

• The August 31, 2006 National Space Policy (NSP)
  states that NASA shall develop, acquire, and use
  civil space systems to advance fundamental
  scientific knowledge of our Earth system and
  shall conduct a program of research to advance
  scientific knowledge of the Earth through
  space-based observation.
• The NSP states that NOAA, in coordination with
  NASA, shall be responsible for operational civil
  environmental space-based remote sensing systems,
  that NASA, NOAA and the Department of Defense
  (DoD) continue to consolidate civil and military
  polar-orbiting operational environmental sensing
  systems, and that NOAA, with support from NASA,
  shall continue a program of civil geostationary
  operational environmental satellites.
• The NSP states that NASA and NOAA shall
  transition mature research and development
  capabilities to long-term operations, as
  appropriate.

41
With the Launch of Aura, the 1st Series of EOS is
Now Complete
Lost contact
42
End-to-end Support in a Globally Integrated
Program
Space-based Sensors Data Relay
Uninhabited Aerial Vehicles
Airborne Sensors
Field Campaigns
Research Balloons
Buoys
Ground Networks
Research Vessels
Ground Stations
NASAs Partners ground, sea, air and in-situ
measurements augment space-based observations to
validate science results and provide
complimentary measurements
Ground Stations
Research Balloons
43
The A-TrainMoving Toward the Future of
Integrated Earth Observation
thick clouds drizzle
aerosol profiles, cloud tops
polarization, multi-angle
CERES TOA fluxes MODIS cloud re, t AMSR LWP
O2 A-band
OMI absorbing aerosol
44
Applications of National Priority
Carbon Management
Aviation Safety
Energy Forecasting
Public Health
Water Management
Disaster Management
Coastal Management
Homeland Security
Agricultural Efficiency
Ecological Forecasting
Air Quality
Invasive Species
45
Several Decades of Satellite Data Records

• Sea Surface Temperature
• Sea Surface Topography
• Sea Surface Winds
• Chlorophyll
• Precipitation
• Sea ice
• Geoid