Climate Change

1
Climate Change

• Part 1 Coming to terms with the probability of
  catastrophe
• There is a problem
• Understanding climate change
• A disheartening tale of global politics
• Part 2 Cold planet specialists
• Part 3 Climate and us

2
Opening Remarks

• CC is happening and we are causing it
• Smith, Martin. Heat. Frontline, WGBH/Boston.
  First broadcast and posted to the web Oct 21,
  2008, http//www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/heat
  /view/1.html. Retrieved Mar 12, 2009.

3
Understanding Climate Change

• Global warming
• Avg. temp 14 C
• Since 1980 20 warmest years on record warming
  at faster rate than in past 2,000 years
• Avg temp up by 0.8 C

4
What is causing warming?

• Sunspots?
• Milankovitch cycles?
• Volancoes?
• Greenhouse effect

5
Greenhouse Effect

• Key greenhouse gas CO2 (63 of warming)
• Other greenhouse gases
• H2O vapour
• CH4 (methane)
• N2O
• flourinated gases such as HFCs
• Thus carbon is key here building block of life
  on earth
• Carbon cycle
• Living creatures
• Fossil fuels

6
How do we know and how much do we know?

• Historical temperature and CO2 measurements
• Climate modelling
• Human-originated CO2
• The problem of feedbacks
• Water vapour
• The Gulf Stream
• Deforestation
• Methane hydrates

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Cumulative CO2 Emissions 1950-2003
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U.S.
World Average
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(No Transcript)
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The Gulf Stream
11
Canaries in the Coal Mine

• Extreme weather events
• Sea level rise
• Melting of polar ice cap
• Collapse of Antarctic ice shelfs
• Melting of Greenland ice sheet

12
Extreme heat waves in Europe are already 2X more
frequent due to global warming, with much more to
come
Black lines are observed temps, smoothed
unsmoothed red, blue, green lines are Hadley
Centre simulations w natural anthropogenic
forcing yellow is natural only. Asterisk and
inset show 2003 heat wave that killed 35,000.
Stott et al., Nature 432 610-613 (2004)
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(No Transcript)
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This works in part through soil moisture
Running, Science, 18 August 2006
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Extreme heat waves in Europe are already 2X more
frequent due to global warming, with much more to
come
Black lines are observed temps, smoothed
unsmoothed red, blue, green lines are Hadley
Centre simulations w natural anthropogenic
forcing yellow is natural only. Asterisk and
inset show 2003 heat wave that killed 35,000.
Stott et al., Nature 432 610-613 (2004)
16
Harm is already occurring (continued) Total power
released by tropical cyclones (green) has
increased along with sea surface temperatures
(blue).
Source Kerry Emanuel, MIT, http//wind.mit.edu/
emanuel/anthro2.htm. SST anomaly (deg C) with
arbitrary vertical offset. PDI scaled by
constant.


Kerry Emanuel, MIT, 2006
17
Losses from Global Weather Catastrophes 1980-2005
Source PEW, November, 2006
18
What has been done?

• 1979 First World Climate Conference, Geneva
• 23 June 1988 speech by James Hansen from NASA
  Goddard Institute

19
Development of International Climate Change Regime
1988
1992
1997
2001
IPCC established
Kyoto Protocol
????? US walks
Framework Convention(UNFCCC)
Scientific assessment
Non-binding aim
Binding emissions target
20
Climate change deniers

• Uncertainties in the science
• Variations natural
• Well all benefit from warming
• Point out supposed holes in the science already
  taken into account
• The pollution dodge

21
Increasing Confidence in the Science

• IPCC 1990 The observed increase in
  temperatures could be
• largely due to natural variability alternatively
  this variability and
• other man-made factors could have offset a still
  larger man-made
• greenhouse warming.
• IPCC 1995 The balance of evidence suggests a
  discernible human
• influence on global climate.
• IPCC 2001 There is new and stronger evidence
  that most of the
• warming observed over the last 50 years is due to
  human
• activities.
• IPCC 2007 Most of the observed increase in
  global temperatures
• since the mid-20th century is very likely (90)
  due to the observed increase in greenhouse gas
  concentrations. Discernible human influences
  include ocean warming, continental-average
  temperatures, temperature extremes and wind
  patterns.

22
Rio Kyoto

• Developed vs developing
• Kyoto wealthy nations
• 5.2 below 1990 levels by 2012
• 0.1 C reduction in predicted warming of 1.5 C
  over next 50 years
• Canada 6
• US 7
• Needed 70 to stabilize world climate but a
  start

23
Rio Kyoto

• As of May 2005, Canada 22.6 above 1990 levels
• US did not ratify
• Loopholes
• Trading emissions
• Carbon sinks
• US pulls out in 2001
• Intensity targets

24
Cold Planet Specialists

• What is the problem here?
• Four issues at the start
• Global nature
• Denial of catastrophe
• Against our image of nature
• Costs complexities
• Knowledge is useless without understanding,
  particularly historical understanding

25
Cold Planet Specialists

• Sensible or sustainable anthropocentrism
• Us in deep time
• In what conditions did we evolve? What range of
  conditions suits us easily and comfortably?
• The radical unusualness of our period in climate
  history
• Climate and the Neolithic revolution
• Earth is not our natural abode

26
Questions

• What do these readings tell us about the effects
  of climate shifts on human societies,
  specifically
• Why is a stable climate important?
• In what specific ways have shifts in climate had
  an impact on past societies?
• How did people in the past respond?
• Could we respond in analogous ways?

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Overview A Sense of Urgency

• Average temperature 0.8 C above pre-industrial
  value
• Increased incidence of extreme weather events
• Accelerating sea-level rise, reduction in summer
  sea ice
• Ecosystem boundaries moving
• Expect continuing increases at 0.2-0.4 per
  decade with potential abrupt changes in climatic
  patterns and major impacts on economic and social
  systems

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Mitigation Adaptation

• Exceeding 2-2.5 C above 1750 levels would entail
  sharply increasing risk of intolerable impacts
• Avoid the unmanageable (mitigation)
• Manage the unavoidable (adaptation)

29
Mitigation

• To avoid exceeding the 2-2.5 C limit will
  require stabilizing atmospheric concentrations at
  the equivalent of no more than 450-500 parts per
  million of CO2 (compared to about 380 ppm CO2
  equivalent today)
• That in turn requires global CO2 emissions to
  peak no later than 2015-2020 at not much above
  their current level and decline by 2100 to about
  a third of that value

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Mitigation -- Energy Efficiency
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Mitigation -- Energy Efficiency (Personal)
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Mitigation -- Energy Efficiency (Personal)

• Eco-friendly construction
• Public transport
• Less air travel

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Mitigation -- Energy Efficiency (Structural)

• Solar
• Wind turbines
• Run-of-river generation and tidal power
• Biofuels
• Hydro?
• Natural Gas?
• Nuclear?
• Ontario Green Energy Plan

34
Mitigation -- Policy

• Global emissions standards
• Carbon tax
• Cap Trade System

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Adaptation

• Two senses
• Adapting to changes that have already happened
• The adaptations necessary for a more sustainable
  future

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Adaptation -- Food Systems

• Farmings contribution from
• Clearing
• Burning farm waste
• Burning fossil fuels
• Farm machinery
• Transport
• Making fertilizers pesticides
• Methane
• NO2 from fertilizers
• 34 of greenhouse gases

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Food Systems

• Risk of hunger to 50 million by 2050
• Drier Soils
• Variations in rainfall river flow
• Mostly in lower latitudes, particularly arid and
  semi-arid tropics
• Canada a winner?
• But a centralized system
• Global crop failures
• Costs of expensive fuels

38
Food Systems -- Solutions

• Substitute living processes for oil-based
• Local vs long distance
• Flexibility
• If we learn soon to live intimately with carbon
  in living tissues we will be able to wean
  ourselves from dependence on dead sources of
  carbon, and have a more interesting time at work
  as well.
• Chief Shawn Atleo on relationships

39
Food Systems -- Solutions

• Shawn Atleo -- his knowl of CC
• a chance to renew our relationships with all
  things, sth weve forgotten -- to think of our
  children -- to think of social resonsibility
• These have become key to our survival