Decision Support Systems (DSS)

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Decision Support Systems (DSS)

• Dr. Merle P. Martin
• MIS Department
• CSU Sacramento

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Agenda

• Ski Resort Planning
• What is a DSS?
• Unstructured Problems
• DSS Components
• DSS Examples
• Group DSS

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Ski Area Planning

• Ski area designs require
• same input
• same decision model
• Each resort offers
• different types of trails
• to different skill levels
• Long-range objective maximize profits for given
  terrain market mix

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Ski Area Planning

• Optimum design concentrates on
  balancing downhill / uphill capacities
• System of trails cannot easily be
  changed once carved
• Summer activities complicate design
• Industry is capital intensive

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Ski Resort PlanningPrimary Objective
Downhill Capacity (Trails)
Uphill Capacity (Lifts)

Market Demand
Production Capacity
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Ski Area Planning

• Terrain Capacity Analysis
• Examine physical
  attributes of mountain
• Create initial set of trails
• Determine mountain's downhill capacity (i.e.,
  trail system)

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Ski Area Planning

• Terrain Capacity Analysis
• Examine physical
  attributes of the mountain
• Create initial set of trails
• Determine mountain's downhill capacity (i.e.,
  trail system)
• Market Analysis
• Match trail system to market mix

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Topography Map (Terrain)
Expert and advanced trails
Steep slope
Gentle slope
Novice beginner trail
Lifts
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Physical Design

• Physical terrain
  and constraints
• Slope of mountain sides
• Physical obstacles (e.g., cliffs, boulders,
  creeks, etc.)
• Aesthetics (i.e., forest scenery)
• Designer selects initial layout
• Initial set of trails

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Physical Design

• Downhill capacity of skiers
  calculated
• Number of skiers per acre (judgmental)
• Type of skier (i.e., skill level)
• Regional density

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Market Analysis

• Objective match trail system
  to market demands
• Seven skier skill levels
• Beginner
• Novice
• Low intermediate
• Intermediate
• High intermediate
• Advance
• Expert

Market Mix Percentage from each category
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Decision Support System

• Calculates trail capacity
• Matches skill levels to
  trail via slope grades
• Takes into account skier
  density per acre by skill level
• Calculates market mix
  of skier skill levels
• Provides expected numbers from a given market
  mix distribution

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Decision Support System

• Balances trail system
  to market mix
• Changes input parameters
• Trail attributes
• Density levels
• Market mix distribution
• Examines uphill capacity

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Terrain Capacity AnalysisSlope Inventory
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Market DisplayDesign for 3837 Skiers
Market percent estimated by the planner
Computed by the DSS
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Skill Balance
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What is a DSS?

• Sprague / Carlson
• Computer-based system that
• helps the decision maker
• confront ill-structured problems
• through direct interaction with
• data and analysis models.

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DSS Philosophy

• Aid decision maker
• not replace (ES)
• Decision maker remains in
  control
• Not always best decision
• Change / flexibility
• Quick response

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DSS Characteristics

• Large amounts of data
• Different data sources
• Tailored to decision maker
• judgment
• knowledge
• intuition
• style
• personal traits

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DSS Characteristics

• Graphically oriented
• Optimize / heuristics
• What if(sensitivity) analysis
• Goal-seeking analysis
• Unstructured problems

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Major Components of a DSS
Model Base
DSS Software

• Models
• Financial
• Statistical analysis
• Graphical
• Project mgmt

Data Base
GraphicalInterface
Decision Maker
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Model Base

• Financial
• Statistical Analysis
• Graphical
• Project Management
• Management Science
• Operations research

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Financial Models

• Cash Flow
• e.g., discounted payback
• Internal ROI
• Portfolio Analysis
• stock market
• advertising
• Spreadsheets

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Statistical Analysis

• Descriptive (summary)
• Trend projection
• Hypothesis testing
• Regression analysis

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Management Science

• Inventory
• Queuing (Line)
• Network
• Search

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DSS Examples

• American Airlines
• Price / rate selection
• Frito-Lay
• Advertising / promotion selection
• Juniper Lumber
• Production scheduling

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DSS Examples

• Kmart
• Price evaluation
• Southern Railway
• Train dispatching
  and forecasting
• Texas Oil Gas
• Potential drilling sites

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Issue

• Does your firm use DSS?
• How?
• How could your firm use a DSS?
• What problems do you see with
  DSS?

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Group Decision Support System (GDSS)

• interactive computer-based system
  facilitating solution of unstructured problems
  by a set of decision makers
  working together as a group.

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GDSS Components
Database
GDSS Processor
Groupware
Model Base
Dialogue Manager
User
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Groupware

• Brainstorming tools
• Idea organization
• Prioritization / voting
• Electronic questionnaires
• pre-meeting
• Group Dictionary
• Stakeholder identification

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GDSS Layout
Projection Screen
Facilitator Console Network Server
Workstations
Projector
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GDSS Benefits

• Efficiency of group meetings
• Quality of decisions reached
• alternatives examined
• participation / contribution
• those who would otherwise be silent
• decision outcomes
• Leverage (way meetings run)
• e.g., human parallel processing

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Factors Affecting GDSS Outcomes

• Anonymity
• provides sense of equality
• encourages participation by all
• reduces
• problems with group think
• dominance by strong personalities
• heightens conflict / impoliteness

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GDSS Factors

• Facility Design
• lighting and layout
• Multiple public screens
• Knowledge bases / databases
• Network speed

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GDSS Factors

• Fixed versus customized tools
• Software design
• ease of use
• Group size / composition
• individual satisfaction increases
  with group size
• Satisfaction
• participants not blocked out of group

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Groupware Matrix
Face-to-Face Meetings (electronic copyboards)
Teams in Place (team room tools)
same place
Cross-Distance Meetings (audio/video conferencing)
Ongoing Coordination (voice mail, e-mail)
different places

• same time

different times
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Issue

• GDSS is based on the assumption that
  anonymity is desired. How
  important is anonymity in
  groups?
• at work?
• in class?
• in distance-learning?
• WHAT DO YOU THINK?

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Points to Remember

• What is a DSS?
• DSS Components
• DSS Examples
• Group DSS