Social processes, landscape change, and land use change

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Social processes, landscape change, and land use
change

• Rolf Pendall (PI)
• Joshua Abrams, Crystal Buck, Kerim Odekon, Dehui
  Wei

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Watershed-scale processes
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Agricultural transformations

• Crystal Buck

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Main questions

• What are the potential impacts of increasing farm
  size?
• Are farms getting larger in the study area?

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Impacts of increasing farm size
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(No Transcript)
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Farm size trends
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Other trends for watershed ZIPs

• Western
• farms down 92-97
• Big farms increased
• Small-farm share down substantially
• 62 of farmers also work off-farm

• Eastern
• farms down 92-97
• Big farms increased
• Small farm share increased
• 51 of farmers also work off-farm

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Modeling the Farmland Sale and Development Process

• Kerim Odekon

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The landscape
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Developers and farmers Bidding process
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(No Transcript)
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(No Transcript)
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Developer build decision
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Shoreline processes

• Joshua Abrams

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Actors, aquatic ecosystems, and effects on social
values
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What do people do when the shoreline environment
degrades?

• Several choices
• move away
• live with it/get used to it
• try to change it
• What are the characteristics of people who try to
  change things?
• demographic, economic characteristics
• values (independent of demography)

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Next steps

• Watershed
• Description
• Social, economic stats
• Farm characteristics
• Sales history
• Explanatory models
• Land use change
• Home sale prices
• Baseline price model
• Exploration/simulation

• Shoreline
• Interviews
• Actor motivations
• Agency responses
• Model-building and simulation
• Static Groups form as problems arise(?)
• Dynamic Groups force new rules to abate problems