Pascals Wager and James Will to Believe

1
Pascals Wager and James Will to Believe

• Blaise Pascal was a 17th Century French
  Philosopher and Mathematician.
• Developed the Probability Calculus.
• Lived a lascivious lifestyle until he had a
  profound religious vision, at which point he
  became a very devout Christian.
• Developed his Wager as an appeal to former
  friends, who were still living a lascivious
  lifestyle.
• Pascal believed his Wager shows that, from the
  standpoint of practical reason, the only rational
  thing to do is to believe in God.

2

3

• Comments
• If someone likes to go for broke, then he should
  believe because that choice has the best positive
  payoff.
• If someone likes to play it safe, then he
  should believe because that choice has the least
  negative payoff.
• Why cant I just not believe and be agnostic?
• Being agnostic is the same as not believing.

4

• When Pascal talks about believing in God, hes
  NOT just talking about believing that God exists.
• Hes talking about adopting the lifestyle that
  goes with believing that God exists.
• One cannot live agnostically.
• One either lives a religious lifestyle or not.

5

• We are . . . embarked . . . , as on a ship.
  The ship is our life. The sea is time. We are
  moving past a port that claims to be our true
  home . . . . This home port . . . is not just
  an idea (that God exists). It is a marriage
  proposal from this God. Not to say yes is
  eventually to say no. Suppose Romeo proposes to
  Juliet, and she says neither yes nor no, but
  wait. Suppose the wait lasts and lasts until
  she dies. Then, her wait becomes no. Death
  turns agnosticism into atheism. For, death turns
  tomorrow into never.
• Peter Kreeft, Christianity for Modern Pagans

6

• How can there be a finite gain if I believe in
  God and he doesnt exist?
• You will be faithful, honest, humble, grateful,
  generous, a sincere friend, truthful.
• Blaise Pascal, Pensées, No.233
• The Wager is too mercenary.
• The Wager can easily be recast to appeal to a
  higher motive than the fear of Hell. One could
  wager as follows

7

• If God exists as the Supreme Being, he
  deserves all my allegiance and faith. I dont
  know whether he exists or not. Therefore, to
  avoid the terrible injustice of refusing God his
  rights, I will believe.
• Peter Kreeft, Christianity for Modern Pagans

8

• Faith in God is not something that you can just
  turn on, like turning on the hot water.
• You want to find faith, and you do not know the
  road. You want to be cured of unbelief, and you
  ask for the remedy Learn from those who were
  once . . . like you and now wager all they have.
• Blaise Pascal, Pensées, No. 233

9

• In The Brothers Karamazov, Madame Hohlokov
  comes to Father Zossima distraught at losing
  her childish faith by exposure to science and
  philosophy . . . . Wise old Zossima tells her
  that it is not possible simply to go back to her
  childhood, forget her doubts and believe naively
  . . . . But, there is . . . a way to become
  certain. It is the way of active love, acting as
  if she believed, loving her neighbors
  indefatigably.

10

• Then, she will see the image of God in the souls
  of her neighbors. Love will grow eyes in her
  heart, but only if she exercises it, only if she
  loves in action, not just in thought . . . . I
  can tell you nothing more comforting than this.
  says Father Zossima For, love in action is a
  harsh and dreadful thing compared with love in
  dreams
• Peter Kreeft, Christianity for Modern Pagans

11

• In the end, Pascal is asking non-believers to
  try the religious lifestyle for awhile, since, as
  the Wager shows, it clearly pays.
• Pascal is confident that, given a fair chance,
  genuine faith will grow.
• I tell you You would soon have faith, if you
  give up a life of pleasure. Now, it is up to you
  to begin. If I could give you faith, I would,
  but I cannot . . . . You can easily give up
  your pleasure and test whether I am telling the
  truth.
• Blaise Pascal, Pensées, No. 240

12

• Final Thoughts
• Does Pascal underestimate the difficulty of
  trying to live a religious lifestyle when one
  does not already believe?
• Pascal himself did not come to faith until he had
  his religious vision.
• Is his challenge unfair to sincere non-believers?

13

• William James vs. the Evidentialist Objection
• Recall Pascals Position
• From the standpoint of speculative reason, one
  can neither prove nor disprove Gods existence.
• One, however, should believe in God because, from
  the standpoint of practical reason, believing in
  God has the best pay-off.

14

• One who raises the Evidentialist Objection
  maintains that, since there is insufficient
  evidence for Gods existence, one should not
  believe in God. One should be agnostic.
• This claim rests on the more basic claim that
  one should never believe in anything without
  sufficient evidence for the existence of that
  thing.
• In the words of one of the most prominent
  Evidentialist Objectors

15

• It is morally wrong always, everywhere, and
  for anyone, to believe anything upon insufficient
  evidence.
• William Clifford, The Ethics of Belief
• Rationale behind Cliffords Ethics of Belief
• Clifford tells a story
• A ship owner was about to send to sea an
  emigrant ship. He knew that she was old and not
  over-well built at the first,

16

• that she had seen many seas and climes and often
  had needed repairs. Doubts had been suggested to
  him that possibly she was not seaworthy. These
  doubts preyed upon his mind and made him unhappy
  he thought that perhaps he ought to have her
  thoroughly overhauled and refitted, even though
  this should put him to great expense. Before the
  ship sailed, however,

17

• he succeeded in overcoming these melancholy
  reflections. He said to himself that she had
  gone safely through so many voyages and weathered
  so many storms, that it was idle to suppose she
  would not come safely home from this trip also.
  He would put his trust in Providence, which could
  hardly fail to protect all these unhappy families
  that were leaving their fatherland to seek for
  better times elsewhere.

18

• He would dismiss from his mind all ungenerous
  suspicions about the honesty of builders and
  contractors. In such ways he acquired a sincere
  and comfortable conviction that his vessel was
  thoroughly safe and seaworthy. He watched her
  departure with a light heart and benevolent
  wishes for the success of the exiles in their
  strange new home that was to be. And he got his
  insurance money when she went down in mid-ocean
  and told no tales.
• William Clifford, The Ethics of Belief

19

• One thing to note is that Cliffords dramatic
  tale is really irrelevant to his claim.
• Clifford claims that it is always morally wrong
  to believe on insufficient evidence.
• The ship owner in the story, however, does not
  believe on insufficient evidence. He believes
  contrary to sufficient evidence.

20

• There is sufficient evidence the ship is not
  seaworthy, but, despite this evidence, the ship
  owner believes it is seaworthy.
• Credulity
• Despite the rather inflammatory story with which
  he begins, Cliffords real reason for maintaining
  one should never believe on insufficient evidence
  is NOT that doing so might lead to false beliefs
  that produce disasters.

21

• Whats really horrible about believing on
  insufficient evidence is that doing so makes a
  person credulous, i.e. makes him such that he
  will believe anything at all.
• If I let myself believe anything on
  insufficient evidence, there may be no great harm
  done by the mere belief it may be true after
  all, or I may never have occasion to exhibit it
  in outward acts. But, I cannot help doing this
  great wrong

22

• towards Man That I make myself credulous. The
  danger to society is not merely that it should
  believe wrong things, though that is great
  enough but that it should become credulous, and
  lose the habit of testing things and inquiring
  into them for then it must sink back into
  savagery.
• William Clifford The Ethics of Belief

23

• The Will to Believe
• Essay written in response to Cliffords by the
  great Harvard philosopher and psychologist
  William James
• Contra Clifford, James maintains it is sometimes
  morally permissible to believe on insufficient
  evidence.
• James maintains two conditions must be met in
  order for it to be permissible to believe
  something on insufficient evidence.

24

• The matter must be intellectually undecidable,
  i.e. it must be very unlikely that you will ever
  have enough evidence to settle the matter one way
  or another.
• The choice in question must represent a genuine
  option.
• Living, i.e each alternative must have some
  initial plausibility. For example, in the
  contemporary West Be a Protestant or be a
  Catholic is a living option. In the
  contemporary West Be a Manichean or be a
  Christian is not a living option.

25

• Forced, i.e. one must choose one alternative or
  another. There is no third alternative, e.g.
  Accept my love or live without it.
• Momentous, i.e. the benefits that would accrue
  by choosing truly are very significant and
  unique. One cannot gain these benefits in any
  other way

26

• If I were Dr. Nansen and proposed to you to
  join my North Pole expedition, your option would
  be momentous for this would probably be your
  only similar opportunity, and your choice now
  would either exclude you from the North Pole sort
  of immortality altogether or put at least the
  chance of it into your hands. He who refuses to
  embrace a unique opportunity loses the prize as
  surely as if he tried and failed.
• William James, The Will to Believe

27

• James claims that the choice between believing
  in God and not believing in Him is both
  intellectually undecidable and a genuine option.
• Both alternatives have initial plausibility.
• The choice is forced, for, as Pascal pointed out,
  one cannot live agnostically.
• Also, as Pascal also pointed out, the benefits of
  believing truly in God are infinite.

28

• James response to Cliffords charge of
  encouraging credulity
• James points out that humans have two epistemic
  goals.
• To attain truth
• To avoid falsehood
• Clifford concentrates on the latter goal to the
  exclusion of the former.
• Does Clifford, however, have sufficient evidence
  for doing this? No, says James.

29

• Better go without belief forever than believe a
  lie! merely shows Cliffords own preponderant
  private horror of becoming a dupe. He may be
  critical of many of his desires and fears, but
  this fear he slavishly obeys. He cannot imagine
  any one questioning its binding force. For my
  own part, I have also a horror of being duped
  but I can believe that worse things than being
  duped may happen to a man in this world.

30

• So Cliffords exhortation has to my ears a
  thoroughly fantastic sound. It is like a general
  informing his soldiers that it is better to keep
  out of battle forever than to risk a single
  wound. Not so are victories either over enemies
  or over nature gained. Our errors are surely not
  such awfully solemn things. In a world where we
  are so certain to incur them in spite of all our
  caution, a certain lightness of heart seems
  healthier than this excessive nervousness on
  their behalf.
• William James, The Will to Believe

31

• When faced with an intellectually undecidable and
  genuine option, someone of a less morose, more
  optimistic, nature that Cliffords might choose
  to believe.
• Better risk loss of truth than chance of error
  that is your faith-vetoers exact position. He
  is actively playing his stake as much as the
  believer is he is backing the field against the
  religious hypothesis,

32

• just as the believer is backing the religious
  hypothesis against the field. To preach
  skepticism to us as a duty until sufficient
  evidence for religion be found, is tantamount
  therefore to telling us, when in presence of the
  religious hypothesis, that to yield to our fear
  of its being error is wiser and better than to
  yield to our hope that it may be true. It is not
  intellect against all passions, then it is only
  intellect with one passion laying down its law.
  And by what, forsooth, is the supreme wisdom of
  this passion warranted?
• William James, The Will to Believe

33

• James sees belief in God as the more hopeful
  choice, and, as such it appeals to him.
• If it does not appeal to Clifford thus, so be
  it. But, let him not become a vetoer of James
  will to believe.
• James concludes his essay with by quoting
  another thinker, Fitz James Stephen

34

• If a man chooses to turn his back altogether on
  God and the future, no one can prevent him no
  one can show beyond reasonable doubt that he is
  mistaken. If a man thinks otherwise and acts as
  he thinks, I do not see that any one can prove
  that he is mistaken. Each must act as he thinks
  best and if he is wrong, so much the worse for
  him. We stand on a mountain pass in the midst of
  whirling snow

35

• and blinding mist, through which we get glimpses
  now and then of paths which may be deceptive. If
  we stand still we shall be frozen to death. If
  we take the wrong road we shall be dashed to
  pieces. We do not certainly know whether there
  is any right one. What must we do? Be strong
  and of a good courage. Act for the best, hope
  for the best, and take what comes. . . . If
  death ends all, we cannot meet death better.
• Fitz James Stephens, Liberty, Equality, and
  Fraternity