Climate Change Mitigation in South Africa

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Climate Change Mitigation in South Africa

• Addendum to main presentation
• 15th September 2009

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The South African Mitigation Response

• South Africa highly vulnerable to impacts of
  climate change now and into future. Huge cost
  to economy threatens development, growth and
  poverty alleviation.
• Energy intense economy
• Primary commodity production and resource based
  economy
• South Africa a responsible global citizen
  committed to reduction of Greenhouse Gases over
  time.

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South African Response

• Proactive response through Long Term Mitigation
  Scenarios study of mitigation potential of SA
  economy. Backed by GHG inventory
• Result is framework for peak, plateau and decline
  trajectory
• Energy efficiency, renewable energy, nuclear,
  modal shift in transport, carbon pricing and
  innovation

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South African Response

• Business as usual trajectory modelled. -
  includes Medupi and Khusile, Mafutha, new
  refineries, expansion of vehicular transport etc
• Existing policies and actions deducted
• Various packages of mitigation actions modelled.
• Result is peak, plateau and decline framework
• Conclusion is that South Africa can reduce GHGs
  over time.
• Will require financing and support to achieve
  desired trajectory

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GHG emission reductions and limits

• climate change mitigation interventions should be
  informed by, and monitored and measured against
  the following plateau and decline emission
  trajectory
• Greenhouse gas emissions stop growing (start of
  plateau) in 2020-25 at 550 Mt CO2-eq (i.e. 100
  Mt above current)
• Greenhouse gas emissions begin declining in
  absolute terms (end of plateau) in 2030-35
• Long-term greenhouse gas emission level reduces
  to 300 Mt CO2-eq by 2050-60

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GHG emission reductions and limits
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Nationally appropriate mitigation actions

• Bali Action Plan calls for nationally
  appropriate mitigation actions by developing
  countries and for these to be supported by
  finance and technology
• Kyoto 2nd Commitment Period legally binding
  emission reduction targets by developed countries
• US action to be comparable to Kyoto
• In context of above, SA mitigation action is
  relative deviation from baseline.
• Within this framework South Africa will reduce
  its emissions

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