A Local Perspective on Climate Change

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A Local Perspective on Climate Change

• What does it mean and what can I do about it?

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4CP

• Chester Co. Citizens for Climate Protection
• Local citizens concerned about climate
• Formed 2007
• Non-profit (501-c-3) status
• Influential in forming Countys GHG Task Force
• www.chescocooler.org

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4CPs Mission

• To educate Chester County citizens on the
  severity and serious consequences of climate
  change
• and by spearheading climate change
  initiatives in order to achieve our goal of
  achieving an 80 reduction in GHGs by the year
  2050

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Agenda

• What is Climate Change ?
• Why should you be concerned ?
• What can you do?

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What is Climate Change?
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CO2 Temperature Relationship
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• Rising CO2 means rising global temperatures
• Projected to rise by 3-7F by 2100

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Global Climate Cycles Naturally

• 100,000 yrs of Ice, 20,000 yrs of Warmth
• Currently in a warm period (prior 18,000 yrs)
• Climate Drivers
• Earths elliptical orbit
• Earths natural tilt and wobble
• Others Volcanoes, comets, solar activity,
  ocean circulation, methane

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Are We Altering the Climate?

• Earth warming faster than natural cycles
• Highest levels in gt400,000 yrs
• 10 hottest in last 15 yrs 20 in last 25
• CO2 is an accelerator
• Is there a chain reaction?
• Heat retained by GHGs raises global temps
• Oceans then release CO2, accelerating warming
• Whats the big deal?
• 9 F decrease delivered an Ice Age
• What will happen with a 3-7F increase?

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More CO2 Higher Temperatures
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• Why should you be concerned?
• Lets examine current projected impacts

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Current Climate Change Impacts

• 1 Reduced Polar Ice Cover
• Arctic/Greenland/Antarctica
• Less light and energy reflected
• This means a Positive Feedback Loop may be
  created where more absorbed sunlight means more
  temp rise

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Current Climate Change Impacts

• 2 Shrinking Mountain Glaciers
• Confirmed rapid and sustained retreat
• Reduced drinking supplies
• Constraints on agriculture
• This means less water for millions of people
• . in Western USA, South America, Africa and Asia

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Canadian Rockies
Threat to crops Drinking water
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Current Climate Change Impacts

• 3 Ocean Surface is Warming
• This means bigger hurricanes cyclones

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Current Climate Change Impacts

• 4 More Acidic Oceans from Dissolved CO2
• This may disrupt the oceans food chain

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Projected Climate Change Impacts

• 1 Sea Level Rise
• Why?
• Warmer H2O expands
• Melting Ice (Greenland 21, Antarctica ?)
• Consequences?
• 600 million people displaced
• Mass migrations likely To USA?
• billions spent protecting cities
• New insurance company policies

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1 meter sea level rise Chesapeake wetlands
lost Delaware Bay wetlands lost Outer Banks
inundated
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Projected Climate Change Impacts

• 2 Chaotic Water Availability
• Increases and decreases
• Diminished rainfall (Australia, western US)
• Diminished glacier runoff (Asia, Africa, S.
  America)
• 3 Frequency/Severity of Extreme Storms

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Summary Impact on Pennsylvania

• Dramatic increase in extreme hot days
• Philadelphia projected 30 days above 100 by
  2070
• Vulnerable populations at risk
• Changes in fish, wildlife plant life
• Ranges moving north Numbers declining
• Yields of apples, sweet corn, grapes likely to
  decrease
• Hardwood trees decline black cherry, beech,
  sugar maple
• Emerging public health threats
• Increasing infectious disease (West Nile virus,
  Deng fever)

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The Threat of Tipping Points

• Definition The levels at which the momentum
  for change becomes unstoppable
• Why an issue?
• Melting permafrost releases methane, 21xgtCO2
• Snow ice melts less reflection raising
  ocean temps
• Ocean absorbs more CO2, raising acidity, harming
  food chain
• Whats the concern?
• Rising CO2 could mean that no matter what we do,
  the climate gets hotter hotter
• You, your children grandchildren will be
  impacted

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Tipping Points Permafrost Thawing
The latest estimate of the amount of carbon in
permafrost is 1.7 trillion tons, more than twice
the 2007 IPCC estimate. Chris Field at
Copenhagen Conference 2009
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Tipping Points Amazon Dieback
Modelers from the U.K.s Met Office presented new
data showing that even a global cessation of
greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 could lead to a
loss of up to 40 of the Amazon rainforest
Copenhagen Conference 2009
UK Met Office
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Strong Scientific Consensus

• Climate Scientists
• gt1,000s worldwide
• Organizations
• Audubon
• Girl Scouts of America
• PennFuture
• Pew
• League of Womens Voters
• National Wildlife Association
• Nature Conservatory
• Sierra Club
• World Resource Institute

• Scientific Institutions
• National Academys of Science
• Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India,
  Italy, Japan, Russia, UK, USA
• Amer. Meterological Society
• Amer. Assn Advancemt Sci.
• Amer. Geophysical Union
• Amer. Medical Association
• Amer. Acad. of Family Practice
• Amer. Public Health Assoc.
• Union of Concerned Scientists
• IPCC

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Joint Scientist/Economist Statement

• Jun 08 Economists now join climate scientists
  in a unified call for action to address the
  causes of climate change
• The strength of the science on climate change
  compelled the signers to warn of sea level rise,
  heat waves, droughts, wildfires, snowmelt, floods
  and disease, as well as increased plant and
  animal species extinction
• The fact that so many scientists and economists
  have spoken out and signed this letter should
  give policymakers the confidence that we can
  avert serious adverse climate impacts

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Educate Yourself

• Read Hot, Flat Crowded- Thomas Friedman
• National Academies of Science
• http//dels.nas.edu/climateshange/
• PEW Center- http//www.pewclimate.org/global-warmi
  ng-basics
• Real climate
• http//www.realclimate.org/

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More Consensus

• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
  Change     http//www.ipcc.ch/
• Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric
  Researchhttp//www.rivm.nl/en/milieu/
• International Institute for Applied Systems
  Analysishttp//www.iiasa.ac.at
• International Energy Agency, Greenhouse Gas
  Programmehttp//www.ieagreen.org.uk

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More Consensus

• United States Department of Energy   http//www.e
  nergy.gov/  
• United States Department of Statehttp//www.state
  .gov/g/oes/climate
• United States Environmental Protection
  Agencyhttp//www.epa.gov/globalwarming/
• United States Environmental Protection Agency
  U.S. Greenhouse Gas Inventory Reportshttp//epa.g
  ov/climatechange/emissions/usinventoryreport.html
  
• United States National Assessmenthttp//www.gcrio
  .org/NationalAssessment/
• The United States Global Change Research Program
  (USGCRP)http//www.usgcrp.gov
•  

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Solutions

• Or What Can You Do as an Individual

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Solutions

• The Goal Rapidly reduce fossil fuel use
• at Home
• at Work
• with my Elected Officials

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Solutions

• Before We Begin, A Reality Check.
• Fossil fuels dependency
• Dependency is large deep-seated
• Shifting will take time commitment

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Solutions

• Consumption in US Buildings
• 40 of energy use
• 70 of electrical use
• 38 of CO2
• Saving Energy Starts at Home
• (March 09 cover of
  National Geographic)

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Solutionsat Home

• CO2 Emissions/Yr
• Oil furnace 14,400
• Avg. Car 11,903
• Gas furnace 7,000
• Electric heat pump 5,249
• Central AC 4,070
• Electric H2O heater 3,590
• Gas H2O heater 2,170

• Electric dryer 1,521
• Freezer 1,400
• Refrigerator 1,191
• Dishwasher 600
• TV 548
• Desktop PC 321
• Cable Box 182
• Microwave 179
• Laptop 98

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US Residential Energy Consumption - 2001
Residential fuels
Electricity
Ag
50 coal
Industry
Vehicles
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Solutionsat Home

• First, Consider 2 Powerful Concepts
• 1- Conservation (avoiding energy use when
  practical)
• 2- Efficiency (stretching your energy s)

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Solutionsat Home

• Conserve (avoiding energy use when practical)
• Drive less - consolidate trips
• Turn down thermostat in winter/up in summer
• Buy green power
• Turn off unused lights power strips
• Turn down H20 heater to 120

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Solutionsat Home

• Conserve (avoiding energy use when practical)
• Take mass transit when possible
• Wash clothes in cold water Air dry
• Decline plastic bags use reusable totes
• Install programmable thermostat
• Eat less meat Drink less bottled water

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Solutionsat Home

• Become More Efficient (stretching energy s)
• Conduct an energy audit act
• Switch to CFL or LEDs
• Buy Energy Star appliances
• Drive Smarter
• Upgrade heating/cooling systems

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Solutionsat Home

• Become More Efficient (Stretching energy s)
• Use power strips for energy hogs
• Seal fireplace damper Avoid use in winter
• Consider a fireplace insert (wood or pellet)
• Consider a hybrid (or plug-in) electric car
• Install ceiling fans to re-circulate warm air

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Solutionsat Work

• Things You Can Consider
• Is there is an Energy Committee? Join! If not,
  promote idea!
• Conduct audit set company goals (DOE free
  audits)
• Things for Committee to consider
• Encourage CFL/LED lighting/motion sensors where
  possible
• Promote energy efficient equipment
• Green Buildings (retrofit older plan new ones)
• Encourage Smart Transport (hybrid fleet, car
  pools)
• Buying Green Power (source from wind)

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Solutionswith Elected Officials

• Township County State Federal
  
• Communicate Your Position with Elected Officials
• Write/Email
• Call
• Sign Petitions
• Send Letter to Editor
• See 4CP handouts to help you formulate a position

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Solutionswith Elected Officials

• 4 Key Talking Points
• Efficiency Conservation
• Buildings LEED certification
• Lighting/SmartGrid CFL/LEDs Smart Meters
• Appliances Upgrades in efficiency (ie,
  EnergyStar)
• Industry Efficiency GHG baseline set goals
  Conduct Audit
• Transportation Mass transit Fuel efficiency
• Grow Renewables
• Wind/Solar/Geothermal
• Phase out coal
• Nuclear?

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Solutionswith Elected Officials

• 4 Key Talking Points
• Put a Price on Carbon
• Mitigates risk Ensures renewable investment
• Raises price Accelerates weaning from fossil
  fuels
• Shifting utility reimbursement from consumption
  to conservation
• Urgency
• Scientific consensus is clear
• Must act now to avoid major costs later

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Solutions

• Summary
• Overwhelming evidence
• Consequences are serious
• Our children/grandchildren call for immediate
  action
• It starts with You!

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The Risk is Big We Must Act!