Busalacchi, R' Murtugudde

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Ocean Ecosystem Technology and Partnerships

• Busalacchi, R. Murtugudde

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By way of reminder

• In its former life, NCEP was known as the
  National Meteorological Center (NMC). The
  National Center for Environmental Prediction
  was coined in 1995 after Dr. R. McPherson,
  Director at the time, determined that NOAA
  required an operational forecast and products
  unit with a name that was extensible in keeping
  with its mission.
• NOAAs National Centers for Environmental
  Prediction as its name and mission statement
  implies strive to perform truly environmental
  prediction beyond weather prediction to include
  water, oceans, and ecosystems.

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NCEP Mission Statement

• NCEP delivers analyses, guidance, forecasts
  and warnings for weather, ocean, climate, water,
  land surface and space weather to the nation and
  the world. NCEP provides science-based products
  and services through collaboration with partners
  and users to protect life and property, enhance
  the nations economy and support the nations
  growing need for environmental information.

NCEP Central Operations Climate
Prediction Center Environmental
Modeling Center Hydrometeorological
Prediction Center Ocean Prediction
Center
NCEP Strategic Vision Striving to be Americas
first choice, first alert and preferred partner
for climate, weather and ocean prediction
services.
Aviation Weather Center
Space Environment Center
Tropical Prediction Center
Storm Prediction Center
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THE NOAA CLIMATE TEST BED
Climate Community
Climate Test Bed
Research Development
NOAA Climate Forecast Operations

Mission to accelerate the transition of research
and development into improved NOAA operational
climate forecasts, products, and
applications. Long-term plans for advanced
forecast capabilities (e.g. ecosystems air
chemistry carbon cycle fisheries)
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Challenges

• Implementing across multiple line
  organizations/matrix management
• Interdisciplinary Funding
• Dedicated Eco Testbed
• Observational requirements both in situ and space
  based
• OSSEs
• Reanalyses

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Challenges

• Critical mass of in house expertise in
  collaboration with external community
• Realistic assessment of computing and
  storage/access requirements
• Human dimension component similar to LULCC,
  modeling human interactions and impacts on
  coastal ecosystems
• Watershed land-use scenarios and regional climate
  change projections
• International collaboration

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Challenges

• Within the context of the Earth System Science
  Partnerships Water, Carbon, Food, and Health are
  being brought together within the context of
  climate change
• Parallel here for ocean ecosystems
• Ocean RISAs

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RISAs are
Spreading to regions that can benefit from
improved climate decision-support
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October 22-23 Plenary Speakers www.climateneeds.um
d.edu
Norman Augustine, former CEO of Lockheed
Martin R. James Woolsey, former Director of
Central Intelligence Agency James Mahoney,
former Director, Climate Change Science
Program Gregory Hobbs, Justice of Colorado
Supreme Court Bryan Hannegan, Vice President of
Electric Power Research Institute Cristina
Rumbaitis del Rio, Rockefeller Foundation Amr
ElSawy, Incoming President, Noblis Inc. Bob
Ryan, NBC meteorologist and former President of
AMS Joseph Tydings, U.S. Senator from Maryland
1965-1971
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Monday Oct. 22 Morning Panels
Insurance/investment F. Nutter/President,
Reinsurance Assoc Amer. R. Flynn/Travelers R.
Tyler/Maryland Insurance Commissioner Larry
Johnson/Allstate L. Gritzo/FM Global S.
Steinmetz/Firemans Fund
Terrestrial Ecosystems Fred Norbury/National
Forest Service James Rattling Leaf/Rep. Native
Lands Lara Hansen/World Wildlife Fund John
Musinsky/Conservation International
Agriculture Carolyn Olson/USDA Toby
Halkovich/Cakebread Cellars Ghassem
Asrar/USDA Charles Walthall/USDA Jim
Nugent/Michigan State Univ. Extension
Parks Recreation Julie Thomas/National Park
Service William Maloney/Am. Society of Travel
Agents Mark Wenzler/Natl Parks Conservation
Assn
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Monday Oct. 22 Afternoon Panels
Energy Ray Keane/Timmons Design
Engineering Steve Heins/Orion Energy Systems Jeff
Harris/Alliance to Save Energy Michael
Eckhart/Amer Council on Renewable Energy Armin
Rosencrantz/Stanford
State/Local/Municipal Cynthia Rosenzweig/NASA Dou
g Duncan/former County Executive Montgomery
County Doug Erickson/Amer Hosp Assoc George
Nichols/Metro Washington
Council of Govts
National Security Richard Engel/Natl
Intelligence Council Gary Geernaert/Los Alamos
Natl Laboratory Linda Wennerberg/NASA Lawrence
Farrell/Natl Defense Industrial Assn Robert
Brammer/Northrop Grumman
Coastal/Marine Ecosystems Barry Stamey/Noblis
Inc. Beth McGee/Ches. Bay Foundation Richard
Beamish/Amer Fisheries Society Lori
Arguelles/Natl Marine Sanctuary
Fdn Spokesman/Coastal States Organization
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Tuesday Oct. 23 Morning Panels
Water Gerry Galloway/UMD Jeanine
Jones/Calif Dept Water Resources Michael
Shapiro/EPA John Promise/No Central Texas
COG Eugene Stakhiv/US Army Corps of Engineers
Human Health Georges Benjamin/President, Amer
Public Health Assn Dennis Lang/Natl Inst of
Environ. Health Sciences Lynn Goldman/Johns
Hopkins Univ.
Transportation Howard Aylesworth/Aerospace
Industries Assn Rob Lempert/RAND Corp. John
Porcari/MD Secy of Transportation Joanne
Potter/Cambridge Systematics Burr Stewart/Seattle
Port Authority Rob Padgette/Amer Public Trans
Assn
Commerce Manufacturing Randy Overbey, former
exec. Alcoa John Carberry/Dupont Jon
Malay/Lockheed Martin Dave Crowe/National Assn of
Home Builders
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• The needs for coping with climate variability and
  adapting to climate change, therefore represent a
  real and emerging challenge to the Nation
• The deliverance of climate observations and
  services involves the transition across basic
  research, applied research, operations,
  applications, and engagement with the user
  community
• Most of the effort to date has been focused on
  the physical climate system and not product
  driven
• However, climate impacts and services involve
  business, finance, agriculture, engineering,
  public health, public policy, etc.
• No single agency covers this spectrum, hence the
  need for an enterprise or partnership
  approach(es)

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• Need for Regional/Watershed/Local Focus
• Supercomputing implications
• Need for national strategy
• Necessary but not sufficient

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• Emphasis on Second Derivative Importance of
  extremes, abrupt change, surprises, mix of time
  scales

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• Climate Impacts ? Climate Consequences
• Sustainability ? Resilience
• Need for Integrated Approach, system perspective,
  consideration of multiple stressors
• Climate model ? Business model
• Need to entrain business and finance schools with
  focus on specific problems

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• Need for integrated climate information
• Accessible to diverse user groups
• Continuity of services
• NCDC, PCMDI, NIDIS
• Need a National Climate Information Clearinghouse

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• The Earth System will experience real climate
  change over the next 50 years, exceeding the
  scope of natural climate variability.
• A paramount question facing society is how to
  adapt to this certainty of climate variability
  and change in the next half century (this
  question is apart from the issue of mitigation).
• In response, NOAA is considering how
  comprehensive climate services would best inform
  decisions about adaptation.
• Similarly, NASA is considering the optimal
  configuration of the next generation of Earth,
  environmental, and climate observations to be
  deployed over the coming 10-20 years.
• Moreover, much of the added-value information for
  specific climate-related decisions will be
  provided by private, academic and
  non-governmental organizations.

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• The needs for coping with climate variability and
  adapting to climate change, therefore represent a
  real and emerging challenge to the Nation
• The deliverance of climate observations and
  services involves the transition across basic
  research, applied research, operations,
  applications, and engagement with the user
  community
• Most of the effort to date has been focused on
  the physical climate system and not product
  driven
• However, climate impacts and services involve
  business, finance, agriculture, engineering,
  public health, public policy, etc.
• No single agency covers this spectrum, hence the
  need for an enterprise or partnership
  approach(es)

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• What new commercial opportunities will open in
  response to climate change?
• As a result of increased temperature extremes,
  what new products, such as high-grade insulation,
  will be required in building construction?
• What are the expected population shifts in
  response to climate change?
• What aspects of climate change will have the most
  rapid and visible impact on public attitudes, and
  which will be most likely to prompt stringent
  government regulation?
• What will be the changes in type and location of
  pest populations?
• What emerging infectious diseases will be induced
  by a changing climate?
• What specifications will be required for future
  seed design as a result of climate change?

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Questions to Speakers and Panelists How would
you characterize the exposure or vulnerability to
climate variability or change impacting your
organization? Does climate variability and/or
change currently factor into your organization's
objectives or operations? Are any of your
existing plans being affected by climate or
projections of climate change? If yes, can you
provide specific case information? Is your
organization developing a plan for adapting to
climate change? What are your needs for climate
observations, predictions, and services? Please
cite one or more specific examples when
possible. Do you currently have access to the
climate information your organization
needs? What next steps are needed to assure
effective use of climate services in your
decision making?
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Model Requirements

• CFS ? WRF
• Daily
• 10s kms
• T, U, V, Precip, runoff, soil moisture, soil
  temp, nutrient loading