PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON FINANCE

1
PORTFOLIO COMMITTEEONFINANCE

• September 2002

2
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY
3
International oil price
4
OECD leading indicators
2,4
-0,4
5
World Economic Outlook Real GDP
Annual percentage change in real GDP Actual
Projections
2001 2002 2003 World 2.5 2.8 4.0 Advanced
economies 1.2 1.7 3.0 USA 1.2 2.3 3.4 Japan -0.4
-1.0 0.8 Euro area 1.5 1.4 2.9 United
Kingdom 2.2 2.0 2.8 Developing
countries 4.0 4.3 5.5 Africa 3.7 3.4 4.2 Asia 5.
6 5.9 6.4 Western Hemisphere 0.7 0.7 3.7 Countri
es in transition 5.0 3.9 4.4 Source IMF World
Economic Outlook - April 2002

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World Economic Outlook Consumer prices
Annual percentage change in consumer
prices Actual Projections
2001 2002 2003 World 4.3 3.6 3.5 Advanced
economies 2.2 1.3 1.8 USA 2.8 1.4 2.4 Japan -0.7
-1.1 -0.5 Euro area 2.6 1.9 1.6 United
Kingdom 2.1 2.4 2.5 Developing
countries 5.7 5.8 5.1 Africa 12.6 9.3 6.1 Asia 2
.6 2.5 3.0 Western Hemisphere 6.4 8.2 7.4 Countr
ies in transition 15.9 10.8 8.7 Source IMF
World Economic Outlook - April 2002

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USA Real gross domestic product
1,1
8
USA Unemployment rate
5,7
9
USA Consumer prices
2,2
1,5
10
Japan Real gross domestic product
1,9
11
Japan Unemployment rate
5,4
12
Japan Consumer prices
-0,8
13
Euro Area Real gross domestic product
1,4
14
Euro Area Unemployment rate
8,3
15
Euro Area Consumer prices
1,9
16
UK Real gross domestic product
2,3
17
UK Unemployment
3,1
18
UK Consumer prices
2,0
1,5
19
SADC Inflation
Annual percentage change in consumer prices
2000 2001 Feb 2002 Mar 2001 Apr
2002 Africa 13.6 12.6 Angola 268.4 168.2
94.8 96.3 102.6 Botswana 8.7 6.6 5.8 5.9 8.8 Lesot
ho 6.2 6.9 12.6 12.6 Malawi 29.6 27.5 17.1 16.7
16.1 Mauritius 4.2 5.4 7.2 6.3 6.3 Mozambique 12.
7 9.1 19.5 18.3 16.6 Namibia 9.3 9.3 10.9 10.5 11.
9 Seychelles 6.3 6.4 2.9 2.4 South
Africa 5.3 5.7 8.4 8.9 10.6 Swaziland 7.3 7.5 12.2
12.0 11.8 Tanzania 5.9 5.2 4.6 4.5 Zambia 25.9
21.7 20.9 23.6 23.4 Zimbabwe 55.7 74.5 122.5 114.5
123.5 Not available IMF
Projections Source National central banks and
IMF World Economic Outlook (October 2001)

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NATIONAL ECONOMY
21
Real gross domestic product
3
2
3
2
22
Real gross domestic product by the secondary
sectors
2 4
1,5
0,5 1,5
23
Real gross domestic expenditure
6
-1
24
Real final consumption expenditure by households
3 3
25
Real household disposable income
3,5 3
26
Household debt as percentage of household
disposable income
54
53
27
Real final consumption expenditure by general
government
3 3
28
Real gross fixed capital formation
6 7,5
29
Real investment in inventories
30
Gross saving as percentage of gross domestic
product
16
15,5
12
10,5
31
Non-agricultural employment
32
Labour market statistics, based on the labour
force survey

• Feb Sep Feb Sep
• 2000 2000 2001 2001
• (000s) (000s) (000s) (000s)
• a Total employed 11 880 11 712 11 837 10
  833
• Among the employed
• Employed in the formal sector
• STEE survey (excluding agriculture
• and certain activities not covered in STEE) 4
  754 4 685 4 676 4 650
• Employed in agriculture 2 265 1 632 1 352 1
  051
• Employed in the formal sector in
• activities not covered in STEE 1 924 2 157 2
  002 2 223
• Employed in the informal sector 1 821 1 933 2
  665 1 873
• Employed in domestic service 1 001 999 914 916
• b Total unemployed (official definition) 4 333 4
  082 4 240 4 525
• c Total economically active a b 16 213 15
  794 16 077 15 358

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Non-agricultural nominal remuneration per worker
10,7
9,6
34
Non-agricultural labour productivity
3,5
3
35
Non-agricultural nominal unit labour cost
7
6,4
36
Nominal unit labour cost in manufacturing
3,2
37
All-goods production price
15,2 Jul
7,8 Sep
38
Overall inflation and CPIX
11,6 Aug
10,8 Aug
4 Oct
39
CPIX excluding food, energy and administered
prices
Per cent
8,1
4,6
40
Balance of payments Current account
53,7
-50,6
3,1
41
Balance on financial account
21,5
12,1
42
Financial account
7,7
14,1
-5,7
21,5
43
Gross gold and other foreign reserves
14,9
7,5
44
Gross gold and other foreign reserves
151,6
79,8
45
Imports covered by reserves
20
46
Net open position in foreign currency
4,8
1,8
47
Average net daily turnover in South African
foreign exchange market
8,6
8 Jul
48
Exchange rate of the rand
49
Real effective exchange rate of the rand
-31,6
5
50
M3 money supply
20,6 May
17,4 Jul
51
Domestic credit extension
17,1
9,6
52
Turnover in the secondary bond market
53
Money-market interest rates
13,5
54
Yield on long-term government bonds
13,28
11,74
55
Yield curve
56
Turnover in the secondary share market
76
57
Share prices - all classes
35
58
Real-estate market
59
Revenue of national government
20,4
7,1
60
Expenditure by national government
13,6
9,6
61
Deficit of national government
22,7
3,9
62
Non-financial public-sector borrowing requirement
-2,9
1,1
63
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