USFWS Migratory Bird Program

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USFWS Migratory Bird Program

• James R. Kelley
• Mississippi Flyway Representative

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Canvasback Harvest Strategy
Update for the 2008-09 Season
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Strategy components

• One continental population
• Spring population objective 500,000
• Model of population dynamics..

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Canvasback population model
Number of canvasbacks next May (Number this
May Summer survival Number of Juveniles in
Fall - Number killed in fall)
Winter survival
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Fall Age Ratio
Age ratio (immature/adult)
Year
O Estimated from harvest data P Predicted
from pond model
Preliminary estimate U.S. harvest data
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Spring Abundance
Canvasbacks (1000s)
Year
O Estimated from survey data P Predicted from
canvasback model C,R,L,2 2009 model predictions
for closed, restricted, liberal 2-bird seasons
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2008-09 Harvest Season Recommendation

• Canvasback strategy calculates an allowable
  harvest of only 24,700 birds for the 2008-09
  hunting season.
• The predicted harvest under a restricted AHM
  season is 61,758 canvasbacks in the U.S.
• The harvest strategy indicates a closed season
  for canvasbacks this year.
• Under a closed season, the model predicts 537,519
  canvasbacks in spring 2009.

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• 2008 estimates of canvasback breeding population
  lowest since 2002 second lowest in last 15
  years.
• Canadian pond estimates are also low.
• Preliminary harvest estimates for 2007 near
  models harvest prediction for a 2-bird bag.
• 2007 model prediction failed by substantially
  overestimating 2008 breeding population.
• Overestimate likely due in part to overestimation
  of the age ratio.
• FWS is committed to model and harvest strategy
  improvements, as competing priorities allow.

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Progress towards an assessment and decision
making framework to inform scaup harvest
management
G. Scott Boomer U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
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Scaup Estimates
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Proposed Methodology to determine scaup
regulatory alternatives
Monitor BPOP Harvest
Update population parameters
Harvest
Derive policy Predict future state Harvest f
(Historical Regulations)
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N population size r intrinsic rate of
increase K carrying capacity H harvest e
process error
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Assessing the Harvest Potential of Wood Ducks in
Eastern North America
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