Riding the Migratory Flyways: Space Based Ornithology

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Riding the Migratory Flyways Space Based
Ornithology

• Hydrospheric and Biospheric Sciences Laboratory
• James.A.Smith_at_nasa.gov
• Jill Deppe, NASA ORAU Post Doc
• Konrad Wessels, GEST Post Doc- (CSIR South
  Africa)

(Brian Small)
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Avian Influenza
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Outline
Background (Refresh Your Memory) -- Biophysical
models -- Version 2 Application --Avian
Influenza Testing and Tuning Models New Mission
Concepts
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Spherical Bird
(Helmuth)
Use individual organism biophysical models and
drive these models with satellite measurements
of climate and habitat
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Avian Energetics
Metabolism
Climate space
TU
TL
Find all Ta,S that satisfy TL lt Tb lt
TU
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From Climate to Geographic Space
July -- North America
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Rhythm of the Seasons
Solar Radiation
Air Temperature
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Bird Migration Example
Myiarchus nasaii
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Migration-- Avian Energetics Part II
Daily Time Budget time migrating, time
resting, and time feeding
Daily Energy Budget time budget, habitat
quality, ingestion and climatic
factors
Fixed stop-overs (dynamic programming
solution)
(Farmer and Wiens)
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(Molly Brown)
But 1000s of potential stopovers!
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Individual-based, spatially explicit
Migration routes, timing, energy budgets
(Watson)
(Photo Thomas W. Johansen)
Avian Energetics -- Part III
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KASPER THORUP
Zoological Museum, University of Copenhagen Dept
Animal Ecology, Lund University
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3D Wind Fields -- Trajectory Analysis
Pennycuick
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Simulate 200 birds Aug-Sept
(Erni)
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Application -- Avian Influenza
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North America
Here be dragons
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Fundamental Question

• If you find birds with H5N1,
• what do you do then, Dorothy?

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Bird dust
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Turkey Farm Distributions
Turkey Farms, change 97 to 02
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Avian Influenza

• Migration Pathways -- North America
• Probability contours
• Integrate the best features of all models
• Use real-time dynamic weather forecasts
• Use satellite observations of the temporal
  dynamics of the landscape

Motorized Bird Plumes
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Use output from forecasting data assimilation
models
Wind and precipitation drive migration decisions
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Habitat Suitability Maps
(Graham)
ISFS?
(Rotenberry, et al.)
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Numerical Weather Prediction Models
BIRD MIGRATION MODEL FRAMEWORK
Bird Migration Model
Habitat Suitability Model

• Test model

• Arrival / passage dates
• Arrival condition
• En-route densities
• Telemetry

Semipalmated Plover
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Testing and Tuning Models
Partnering with USFWS and USGS

• Bird Banding Data
• Survey Data at Stopovers
• Telemetry Data
• DNA
• Radar Ornithology
• New Concepts

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Satellite telemetry data--Pintails
USGS
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Existing systems miss most birds/mammals
Large enough to carry ARGOS-type satellite tag
Proportion of species
Body size (log g)
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www.icarusinitiative.org
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Phase A Study
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Summary
Theory and models available Have the Need --
Applications (Strong Letters and In-Kind
Support) There are some data for tuning and
validation We need a space mission
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Space-Based Biophysical Ornithology