THE TRANSCAUCASUS, TURKEY,

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THE TRANSCAUCASUS,TURKEY, IRAN

• PS 555

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ADMINISTRATIVE

• Well stop early so you can evaluate me and the
  course
• Please take it seriously
• What did you like?
• Readings, assignments, discussion, web,
  powerpoint
• What would improve the course?
• Seniors see me if you have questions
• Read Odom and Dujarric
• CIS chapter has a lot about each conflict

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NEWS
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TRANSCAUCASUS
Discuss culture, general themes, situation
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TURKEY

• Looks both East and West
• Decline of Ottoman Empire
• WWI and the Ataturk
• Modernization Westernization
• The Effects of the Cold War
• Strategic Location?

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POST-COLD WAR

• From a Northern Monolithic Enemy...
• To Destitute and Fragile Proto-states
• Decline in Turkeys Status in the West
• Turkey Still Linked with West
• Economic Links
• Security Links
• Social Links (among elite)
• So Why Worry about the Transcaucasus?

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TURKEY AND THE TRANSCAUCASUS

• Turkish Involvement Until 1920s
• Byzantium and Ottoman Empire
• Cultural Ties up to Revolution
• Soviet Rule a Mixed Blessing
• Two Stages Since Soviet Collapse
• Establishing Ties (Especially with Az.)
• Loss of Influence to Russia
• Nature of Historical Ties?

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TURKEY GEORGIA

• Georgia Needed Turkey for Balance
• Despite Possibilities for Conflict...
• Religion
• Territorial Claims (Both Ways)
• Turkish Affinity for Abkhaz (Coethnic Turks)
• Turkish Affinity for Ajars
• What Could Have Happened?
• What Could Happen?

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TURKEY AZERBAIJAN

• Azerbaijanis ARE Turkish, BUT
• Turks are Sunni
• Azerbaijanis are Shia (Persian Influence)
• Soviet Rule Separated the Cultures Some
• During WWI Revolution
• Ottoman Army of Islam fought for Azeris
• But Soon Turned Attention Elsewhere
• Close Contact after Breakup
• President Elchibey Favored Turkish Model
• Business and Educational Exchanges

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TURKEY AZERBAIJAN

• Aliyev deposed Elchibey
• Closer Ties with Russia and Iran
• Decline in Turkish Influence
• Barriers to Closer Ties
• Aliyev
• Geography
• Nakhichevan
• Georgia
• Armenia
• What Could Have Happened?
• What Could Happen?

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TURKEY ARMENIA

• Problematic
• Religion
• 1915 Massacre of Armenians
• Act of War vs. Genocide
• Armenian Collusion with PKK
• Azeri-Armenian War Tough Choice
• What Could Have Happened?
• Any Chance for Improved Relations?

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TURKEY RUSSIA

• Pipeline Politics
• Russia may have helped overthrow Elchibey
• Russian Fears of Turkish Nationalism
• Russian Influence Still a Mixed Blessing
• What Could Happen Between Them?
• What Could Bring Turkey In?

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IRANIAN FOREIGN POLICY

• Rejection of Western Model, Embrace of Islam as
  the Guide to Policy
• But Increasingly Pragmatic, Nationalist
• In Transcausacus
• Position of Weakness
• Prefers Russian Control over Turks or Azeri
  Nationalism
• Policy Eschew Entanglements

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A LITTLE HISTORY

• Decline of Persia
• Between British and Russian Empires
• Restoration of Independence in 1921
• Wrong Side in WWII
• British Control of Oil
• USSR to the North
• US to Counter UK and USSR
• Worked Until the Revolution

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THE NEW IRAN

• Anti-Western/US
• Challenge Neighbors
• Terrorism as a Tool
• Only Shia Nation-State
• Still Nationalistic
• No Immediate Threats
• Weak, but Still a Power
• Pipeline?

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IRAN AND T-C

• Persia was a Power in T-C
• Religious Ties with Azerbaijan ( GG)
• Excluded During Soviet Rule
• Azerbaijan Important Now
• Ethnic Ties
• Link to CIS Transport Grid
• But
• Azeris More Secular
• Azerbaijan Has Its Own Oil
• Better Under Aliyev

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IRAN, T-C, RUSSIA

• Russia Wants Good Relations with Iran
• But Wants It Out of Near-Abroad
• Russian Control Second Best for Iran
• The Kurdish Problem
• Armenia and Iran have Supported the PPK
• What Could Happen?

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CONFLICTS IN THE TRANSCAUCASUS
TRANSCAUCASUS
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THREE MAJOR CONFLICTS

• SOUTH OSSETIA
• ABKHAZIA
• NAGORNO-KARABAKH

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SOUTH OSSETIA

• 1989-1992 rise of nationalism and the minority
  (and Russian) reaction. Elite warlords vs.
  Gamsakhurdia
• Russian Influence?

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ABKHAZIA

• 1991-(Sept 1993)
• 100k(Ru G Ab)
• Mixed in with power struggle
• Russias Role
• Cos hated Schev.
• Supported rebels?
• Supported Gamsukhardia
• Brought in to keep peace
• 1994 G joined CIS
• International Forces
• Turkey?
• Iran?

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NAGORNO-KARABAKH

• 1988- ?
• Part of Az
• But mostly Armenian
• Wanted to secede
• Russia
• Why help Armenia?
• N-K?
• Armenias advantages
• Azeri Hope

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THE NEW GREAT GAME
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EVALUATIONS