Svante Arrhenius:The First Climate Prediction

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A Dearness Environmental Society Presentation
CHANGE
Global warming is a time bomb in our hands. Can
we act to save life?
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CLIMATE
CHANGE
MISINFORMATION
ASSUMPTIONS
BEHAVIOUR
TO LONG-TERM THINKING
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Signals Munich Re Natural Catastrophes 2005
signals
Munich Re has long been warning that increasing
global warming will be accompanied by
extraordinary weather-related natural
catastrophes The companys fears were confirmed
in 2005.
Munich Re Annual Review Natural Catastrophes
2005
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Munich Re Natural Catastrophes
signals
Munich Re Annual Review Natural Catastrophes
2005
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Forcings create energy imbalance
science
RADIATED HEAT
GREENHOUSE GASES
REFLECTED ENERGY from atmosphere
HEAT RETURNED to earth
INCOMING SOLAR ENERGY
Atmosphere
REFLECTED ENERGY from earth
TOTAL INCOMING SOLAR ENERGY 340 W/m2
TOTAL OUTGOING SOLAR ENERGY 339 W/m2
NET RESULT 1 W/m2
1 W/m2 of excess energy which warms the oceans
and melts glaciers.
Source James Hansen, Director Goddard Space
Institute, NASA
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science
?
Forcing the earth system
2040
2006
Source Petit, et al., Nature 399, 429-436, 1999
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science
Global Temperature the Past 20,000 Years the
Next 100 Years
Av. temp. over past 10,000 years 15 ºC
IPCC (2001) forecast 1.4-5.8oC, with band of
uncertainty

Medieval Warm
Black Death
Holocene Optimum
21st century projected rapid rise
1940
-1
Little Ice Age in Europe (15th-18th centuries)
-2
-3
-4
Younger Dryas
-5
10,000
2,000
1,000
300
100
Now
100
20,000
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Hurricane Katrina
signals
Hot waters in Gulf of Mexico

• Katrina Before and after along Mississippi
  shoreline

Katrina flooded mansions
Source NASA
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What natural catastrophes tell us
signals
Melting glaciers, prolonged droughts, severe heat
waves, violent windstorms, cataclysmic flooding
and an increase in forest fires describe a
changing climate

• Climate is the context for life

What implications does climate change have for
all life?
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science
Ice sheets are melting more quickly than predicted
Greenland Ice Sheet Melting
doubled the ice sheet mass deficit in the last
decade
R.J. Braithwaite, Science Vol. 297, No 5572, July
12, 2002
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Greenland melting rate 1992-2002
science
Greenland ice sheet melt area increased on
average by 16 from 1979 to 2002.
Data from Konrad Steffen and Russell Huff,
University of Colorado
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Summer Polar Cap Shrinking
science

• Since 1979, the size of the summer polar ice cap
  has shrunk more than 20 percent.

(Illustration from NASA) (http//www.nrdc.org/glo
balWarming/qthinice.asp)
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impacts
Melting ice sheets also threaten the oceanic
Conveyor Belt
Salinity gt 36
Surface
Salinity lt 34
Deep
Bottom
Deep Water Formation
http//www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20040812/01
_oceanbehavior_gulf_m.jpg
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One IPCC scenario Florida inundated
impacts
IPCC Projected sea-level rise in 21st century
0.5 to 1.0 m
Red areas are inundated.
http//eol.jsc.nasa.gov/sseop/images/EO/highres/IS
S008/ISS008-E-19646.JPG
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impacts
Vulnerable global coastlines
44 of the worlds population live within 150 km
of a coastline
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no-analogue state.
science
The Earth is currently operating in a no-analogue
state. In terms of key environmental parameters,
the Earth System has recently moved well outside
the range of natural variability exhibited over
at least the last half million years.
The nature of changes now occurring
simultaneously in the Earth System, their
magnitudes and rates of change are unprecedented.
From Steffen et al. 2004
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And how does the use of fossil fuel impact our
health?
impacts
Asthma attacks Other respiratory
illnesses Premature death from lung and heart
diseases
Injuries from extreme weather Heat-related
deaths Infectious diseases Allergies
Climate Change
Air Pollution
Greenhouse Gases
Industry
Transportation

• Burning Fossil Fuels

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Are auto emissions cleaner than you think?
impacts

• Ad by Auto Alliance

Ad by Alliance for Clean Air
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oil peak
Increased food production

• Modern farms use oil and gas for

• pesticides and fertilizers
• mechanized planting and harvesting
• pumping water
• food processing packaging
• transportation distribution

Note For every calorie of energy used for
agriculture itself, five (5) more are required
for processing, storage and distribution
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How we depend on oil for our food
oil peak

• Increased food land degradation

• Increased climate change

• Increased demand for food and oil

• Increased global population

• Increased food production

• Increased oil production

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oil peak
Increased global population

• The worlds population went from l billion at the
  middle of the 19th century to 6.3 billion at the
  turn of the 21st century.

Oil-based agriculture plays a large role in
the explosion of the worlds population.
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science
Our pressures on the planet have increased with
our numbers
6.5 billion (2005)
4 billion (1975)
2 billion (1920)
1 billion (1800)
Source UN Population Division 2004 Lee, 2003
Population Reference Bureau
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An Olympic appetite for oil
oil peak

• In one day we go through 5,500 Olympic-sized
  pools filled with oil.

Thats a hundred more pages of these pools.
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oil peak
Increased climate change
The industrial food supply system, especially
transportation, is one of the biggest consumers
of fossil fuels and one of the great producers of
GHGs. So, lets see, in my kitchen I have
Brazil
Product of
Mexico
Indonesia
England
Italy
Thailand
Japan
India
Costa Rica
Sri Lanka
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oil peak
Whats made of oil? Whats not made of oil?
MADE OF OIL Clothing, MP3 Players, Ink, Heart
Valves, Crayons, Parachutes, Telephones, Enamel,
CDs, Transparent Tape, Antiseptics, Vacuum
bottles, Deodorant, Pantyhose, Rubbing Alcohol,
Carpets, Epoxy, paint, Oil, filters, Upholstery,
Hearing Aids, Car sound insulation, Cassettes,
Motorcycle helmets, Pillows, Shower doors, Shoes,
Refrigerator linings, Electrical tape, Safety
glass, Awnings, Salad bowl, Rubber cement, Nylon
rope, Ice buckets, Fertilizers, Hair coloring,
Toilet seats, Denture adhesive, Loudspeakers,
Movie film, Fishing boots, Candles, Water pipes,
Car enamel, Shower curtains, Credit cards,
Aspirin, Golf balls, DVDs, Detergents,
Sunglasses, Glue, Fishing, rods, Linoleum,
Plastic wood, Soft contact lenses, Trash bags,
Hand lotion, Shampoo, Shaving cream, Footballs,
Paint brushes, Balloons, Fan belts, Umbrellas,
Paint Rollers, Luggage, Antifreeze, Model cars,
Floor wax, Sports car bodies, Tires, Dishwashing
liquids,Unbreakable dishes, Toothbrushes,
Toothpaste, Combs, Tents, Hair curlers, Lipstick,
Ice cube trays, Electric blankets, Tennis
rackets, Drinking cups, House paint,
Rollerskates, wheels, Guitar strings, Ammonia,
Eyeglasses, Ice chests, Life jackets, TV
cabinets, Car battery cases, Insect repellent,
Refrigerants, Typewriter ribbons, Cold cream,
Glycerin, Plywood adhesive, Cameras, Anesthetics,
Artificial turf, Artificial Limbs, Bandages,
Dentures, Mops, Beach Umbrellas, Ballpoint pens,
Boats, Nail polish, Golf bags, Caulking, Tape
recorders, Curtains, Vitamin capsules,
Dashboards, Putty, Percolators, Skis,
Insecticides, Fishing lures, Perfumes, Shoe
polish, Petroleum jelly, Faucet washers, Food
preservatives, Antihistamines, Cortisone, Dyes,
LP records, Solvents, Roofing
Its hard to imagine life without these things
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New oil discoveries worldwide
oil peak
All Regions
GOM Shelf
Prudoe Bay, North Sea
Saudi Arabia, Kuwait
Persia, Iraq
Billion Barrels per Year
Deepwater GOM, Brazil W. Africa
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15
10

• 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950
  1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Source Adapted from Harper (2003) and Oil Gas
Journal (2004)
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Distribution of the worlds proven reserves
oil peak
Total 1050 billion barrels
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Climate change is our script

• Over the past hundred years, gases from our
  activities have begun heating the planet to a
  dangerous degree.

Our activities have pushed the earth beyond her
capacity to bail us out.
Now its only our activities that can undo the
danger. We can do it. Its up to us
individually and together to decide how much we
change our ways of doing things our
transportation, shopping, manufacturing, buying
and growing food for example
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solutions
Lets reduce some and then wait and see isnt
a solution.

• Wait and see isnt a solution. This idea
  pretends the climate can react quickly to our
  actions. It cant.

• There is no doubt among scientists that our
  climate is warming and we need large reductions
  in our emissions

• To stabilize and reduce emissions we need bold
  actions with meaningful cuts to emissions of GHGs
  and other aerosols.

• A cut of less than 50 wont do it

Our GHG emissions are roughly twice as much as
the planet can absorb and release
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Advice from a pretty good problem solver
solutions

• The significant problems we have cannot be
  solved at the same level of thinking with which
  we created them.

- Albert Einstein
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EU campaign to reduce carbon use
solutions

• Tools to help you reduce the carbon you generate

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Strengths model
solutions

• All hands on deck

• Elementary teachers reach 1000 students

• Secondary teachers reach 5400 students

• 12,000 hours

• Every single discipline/group/teacher can
  contribute something

• Some can take lead roles in reorientation

• No single discipline/group/teacher can do it all

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The era of procrastinations, of half-measures. Of
soothing and baffling expedients, Of delays, is
coming to a close. In its place We are entering
a period of consequences.
Winston Churchill 1936
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A Question for All Societies
What should our students

• know
• be able to do
• value

when they graduate?
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Dearness Environmental Society
Thank you